Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence System

Mortsch, Linda; Hengeveld, Henry; Lister, Murray; Wenger, Lisa; Lofgren, Brent M.; Quinn, Frank H.; Slivitzky, Michel

doi:10.4296/cwrj2502153

Cited by 88 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…The rate of increase in precipitation over the 70 years period is alarming. From Table 5, if the trends apparent over the 1930-2000 time period continue, the predicted increases in precipitation with their uncertainties at the Lakes of Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario till 2050 are 4.1%±4.9%, 12.50%±4.5%, 10.9%±4.8%, 21.8%±8% and 19%±5 %, respectively. GCMs are being used to develop future scenarios under changed climate conditions (Mortsch et al, 2000). For illustration purposes, the GCM predictions for future changes in precipitation for Lake Superior, Lake Michigan and Lake Huron (the latter two combined to Michigan/Huron) from Lofgren (2002) are plotted in Fig.…”

Section: Prediction Of Precipitation Changes To Year 2050mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Ideally, a range of possible future climates and their implications should be explored through the use of a number of climate change scenarios". However, precipitation trend characterization is challenging since precipitation varies substantially across space and time, and hence it is difficult to predict a significant long-term change (Mortsch et al, 2000). Nevertheless, the technical literature reveals there is evidence of increasing trend of precipitation; Mortsch et al (2000) reported annual precipitation trends for regions of Canada near the Great Lakes region are significantly increasing.…”

Section: Prediction Of Precipitation Changes To Year 2050mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, precipitation trend characterization is challenging since precipitation varies substantially across space and time, and hence it is difficult to predict a significant long-term change (Mortsch et al, 2000). Nevertheless, the technical literature reveals there is evidence of increasing trend of precipitation; Mortsch et al (2000) reported annual precipitation trends for regions of Canada near the Great Lakes region are significantly increasing. As well, Filion (2000) cited that Coulson's (1997) results indicate a precipitation increase of 7-18% in northern British Columbia.…”

Section: Prediction Of Precipitation Changes To Year 2050mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Upon analyzing the data for the period 1895-1999, Mortsch et al (2000) suggested that the annual average temperature for Canada has increased by a statistically significant 1.3 • C, although the increase is not consistent throughout the time span.…”

Section: Prediction Of Temperature Changes To Year 2050mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessment of impact of climate change on water resources: a long term analysis of the Great Lakes of North America

McBean

Motiee²

2008

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In the threshold of the appearance of global warming from theory to reality, extensive research has focused on predicting the impact of potential climate change on water resources using results from Global Circulation Models (GCMs). This research carries this further by statistical analyses of long term meteorological and hydrological data. Seventy years of historical trends in precipitation, temperature, and streamflows in the Great Lakes of North America are developed using long term regression analyses and Mann-Kendall statistics. The results generated by the two statistical procedures are in agreement and demonstrate that many of these variables are experiencing statistically significant increases over a seven-decade period. The trend lines of streamflows in the three rivers of St. Clair, Niagara and St. Lawrence, and precipitation levels over four of the five Great Lakes, show statistically significant increases in flows and precipitation. Further, precipitation rates as predicted using fitted regression lines are compared with scenarios from GCMs and demonstrate similar forecast predictions for Lake Superior. Trend projections from historical data are higher than GCM predictions for Lakes Michigan/Huron. Significant variability in predictions, as developed from alternative GCMs, is noted.

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Section: Prediction Of Precipitation Changes To Year 2050mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Prediction Of Precipitation Changes To Year 2050mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Prediction Of Precipitation Changes To Year 2050mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Prediction Of Temperature Changes To Year 2050mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessment of impact of climate change on water resources: a long term analysis of the Great Lakes of North America

McBean

Motiee²

2008

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Understanding the sensitivity of the lakes to high-amplitude and long-duration change would be a distinct benefit in the light of the need to project and adapt to future changes under global warming which may drive the lakes below instrumentally-observed variability (Mortsch et al, 2000).…”

Section: Working Hypothesis For Climate Change and The Hydrologicallymentioning

confidence: 99%

Glacial Isostatic Adjustment of the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin: Using the Empirical Record of Strandline Deformation for Reconstruction of Early Holocene Paleo-Lakes and Discovery of a Hydrologically Closed Phase*

Lewis

Blasco

Gareau³

2007

gpq

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In the Great Lakes region, the vertical motion of crustal rebound since the last glaciation has decelerated with time, and is described by exponential decay constrained by observed warping of strandlines of former lakes. A composite isostatic response surface relative to an area southwest of Lake Michigan beyond the limit of the last glacial maximum was prepared for the complete Great Lakes watershed at 10.6 ka BP (12.6 cal ka BP). Uplift of sites computed using values from the response surface facilitated the transformation of a digital elevation model of the present Great Lakes basins to represent the paleogeography of the watershed at selected times. Similarly, the original elevations of radiocarbon-dated geomorphic and stratigraphic indicators of former lake levels were reconstructed and plotted against age to define lake level history. A comparison with the independently computed basin outlet paleo-elevations reveals a phase of severely reduced water levels and hydrologically-closed lakes below overflow outlets between 7.9 and 7.0 ka BP (8.7 and 7.8 cal ka BP) in the Huron-Michigan basin. Severe evaporative draw-down is postulated to result from the early Holocene dry climate when inflows of meltwater from the upstream Agassiz basin began to bypass the upper Great Lakes basin.Dans la région des Grands Lacs, le soulèvement isostatique lié à la dernière glaciation a ralenti selon une courbe de décroissance exponentielle établie à partir du gauchissement observé dans les anciennes lignes de rivage lacustres. Une surface de référence composite de la réponse isostatique datant de 10,6 ka BP (12,6 cal ka BP) a été préparée pour l’ensemble du bassin-versant des Grands Lacs, par rapport à une région au sud-ouest du lac Michigan située au-delà de la limite du dernier maximum glaciaire. Le calcul du soulèvement des sites en fonction des altitudes de la surface de référence a facilité la conversion d’un modèle altimétrique de terrain du bassin actuel des Grands Lacs en des cartes paléo-géographiques pour différents âges choisis. De plus, afin de définir l’évolution des niveaux lacustres, les altitudes initiales des indicateurs géomorphologiques et stratigraphiques des paléo-niveaux lacustres, datés au 14C, ont été reconstituées puis reportées en fonction de l’âge. La comparaison de cette courbe à celles des paléo-altitudes des exutoires lacustres, calculée indépendamment, révèle, entre 7,9 et 7 ka BP (8,7 et 7,8 cal ka BP), une phase d’abaissement majeur des niveaux lacustres au-dessous de ceux des exutoires et la fermeture hydrologique des lacs dans le bassin des lacs Huron-Michigan. La forte évaporation nécessaire à l’abaissement du niveau d’eau est attribuée à un climat sec peu après le début de l’Holocène, dans un contexte de détournement progressif hors des Grands Lacs des eaux de fonte du lac Agassiz

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Ecohydrological controls on lichen and moss CO₂ exchange in rock barrens turtle nesting habitat

et al. 2020

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Lichens and mosses are among the first organisms to colonize the open bedrock of eastern Georgian Bay, Ontario making them essential for primary soil formation and ecosystem succession, while also providing nesting habitat for turtle species‐at‐risk. However, the slow growing nature of lichen and moss makes them vulnerable to ecohydrological stresses caused by climate and land‐use change. In order to better understand how lichen and moss will respond to stressors, we examined which ecohydrological factors (e.g., near‐surface soil moisture and temperature) control the CO2 exchange of lichen (Cladonia spp.) and moss (Polytrichum spp.) on rock barrens, and the time of year growth primarily occurs. Net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was significantly greater in the wet period of the growing season than the dry, with an estimated difference of 0.7 μmol m−2 s−1 for lichen, 2.9 μmol m−2 s−1 for moss, and 2.5 μmol m−2 s−1 for a moss and lichen mix. These findings indicate that the wet portions of the growing season are critical for growth, while lichen and moss have little to no productivity during the dry period. Our results indicate that near‐surface soil moisture is an indicator of the CO2 exchange of lichen and moss, and this relationship varies among cover types. For the geographical regions where warm, dry conditions are expected to increase in duration and frequency with climate change, lichen and moss NEP will likely decrease, thus limiting the long‐term availability of nesting habitat for turtle species‐at‐risk.

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Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence System

Abstract: Daily minimum temperature increases more than the daily maximum temperature in the CCC GCM2 2xCO, equilibrium run (Zwierc and Kharin, 1998).

Cited by 88 publications

References 35 publications

Assessment of impact of climate change on water resources: a long term analysis of the Great Lakes of North America

Assessment of impact of climate change on water resources: a long term analysis of the Great Lakes of North America

Glacial Isostatic Adjustment of the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin: Using the Empirical Record of Strandline Deformation for Reconstruction of Early Holocene Paleo-Lakes and Discovery of a Hydrologically Closed Phase*

Ecohydrological controls on lichen and moss CO₂ exchange in rock barrens turtle nesting habitat

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Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence System

Abstract: Daily minimum temperature increases more than the daily maximum temperature in the CCC GCM2 2xCO, equilibrium run (Zwierc and Kharin, 1998).

Cited by 88 publications

References 35 publications

Assessment of impact of climate change on water resources: a long term analysis of the Great Lakes of North America

Assessment of impact of climate change on water resources: a long term analysis of the Great Lakes of North America

Glacial Isostatic Adjustment of the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin: Using the Empirical Record of Strandline Deformation for Reconstruction of Early Holocene Paleo-Lakes and Discovery of a Hydrologically Closed Phase*

Ecohydrological controls on lichen and moss CO2 exchange in rock barrens turtle nesting habitat

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

Ecohydrological controls on lichen and moss CO₂ exchange in rock barrens turtle nesting habitat