Climate Change Impacts on Water Balance Components in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia

Abstract

The climate of Southeastern Europe, where Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and Croatia are located, is changing in line with the global trends. The spatial and seasonal distribution of precipitation is changing, while the temperatures increased 0.4-0.8 o C on average compared to 1961-1990, most notably during summer (1.0-1.2 o C). Depending on the different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, the temperatures in this area are projected to further increase by 1.7-4.0 °C. In order to understand the effects of climate change on regional water resources, it is important to assess the impacts of these changes on the components of the water balance. The aim of this study was to determine and compare the severity of changes in annual water balance between two climate periods (1961-1990 and 1991-2020). The results indicate that climate change has a different temporal and spatial effect. All areas showed a positive trend in mean air temperature (0.29-0.36 o C per decade), reference evapotranspiration (5.96-32.14 mm per decade) while precipitation, total runoff, amount of snow and actual evapotranspiration vary depending on the location and time period. The key characteristic of the 1991-2020 period compared to 1961-1990 is the greater variation of all components of the water balance.

Upgrading Maize Cultivation in Bosnia and Herzegovina from Rainfed to Irrigated Systems: Use of Remote Sensing Data and the Dual Crop Coefficient Approach to Estimate Evapotranspiration

“…ETo in 2021 and 2022 is higher in every month of the maize vegetation period. This also indicates the effects of climate change, which have been confirmed by other studies conducted in BiH [5,84].…”

“…Furthermore, a decrease in the number of days with snowfall is anticipated [4]. These changes can have a serious impact on the problems of drought and water deficit [5]. In terms of agricultural production, the greatest risks are droughts, followed by spring frosts, autumn frosts, hail, and floods [6].…”

Climate Change Influence on the Occurrence of Extreme Dry-Wet Periods in Bosnia and Herzegovina

“…pronounced increases occurring during the summer (up to 0.6°C per decade) (Čadro et al, 2023;Popov, 2020;Popov et al, 2018a;Popov et al, 2018b;Trbic et al, 2017). On the other hand, precipitation trends are not consistent (Čadro et al, 2020;Čadro et al, 2023;Popov et al, 2019;Popov et al, 2017;PSP-BiH, 2023), and in most cases, there are no significant changes in annual precipitation totals (FNC, 2021;TNC, 2016).…”

“…pronounced increases occurring during the summer (up to 0.6°C per decade) (Čadro et al, 2023;Popov, 2020;Popov et al, 2018a;Popov et al, 2018b;Trbic et al, 2017). On the other hand, precipitation trends are not consistent (Čadro et al, 2020;Čadro et al, 2023;Popov et al, 2019;Popov et al, 2017;PSP-BiH, 2023), and in most cases, there are no significant changes in annual precipitation totals (FNC, 2021;TNC, 2016). However, these studies consistently emphasize that due to the increased occurrence of heavy rainfall in the total precipitation, the risk of floods has heightened, particularly in the northeastern region of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FNC, 2021;NAP, 2021).…”