Climate change impacts on Yangtze River discharge at the Three Gorges Dam

Birkinshaw, Stephen; Guerreiro, Selma B.; Nicholson, Alex; Liang, Qiuhua; Quinn, Paul; Zhang, Lili; He, Bin; Yin, Jun; Fowler, Hayley J.

doi:10.5194/hess-21-1911-2017

Cited by 65 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…Due to the large number of dams and the lack of information about their operating procedures, the impacts of these dams are not considered in the hydrological simulation. However, the dams seem to have a limited effect on the streamflow on mainstream hydrological stations because of the large precipitation totals in the wet season [21].…”

Section: The Vic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This study focuses on the Yangtze River basin in southern China, a region where an increase in precipitation extremes has been observed in the past several decades [19,20]. The Yangtze River basin is home to more than 400 million people and its rich water resources are especially important for several national economies [21]. In addition, the river basin is also home to many endangered species, such as the giant panda, Yangtze River Dolphin, and Yangtze Sturgeon [22].…”

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confidence: 99%

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Projected Changes in Hydrological Extremes in the Yangtze River Basin with an Ensemble of Regional Climate Simulations

Yang

et al. 2018

Water

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This paper estimates the likely impacts of future climate change on streamflow, especially the hydrological extremes over the Yangtze River basin. The future climate was projected by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment in East Asia (CORDEX-EA) initiative for the periods 2020–2049 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. The bias corrected outputs from five regional climate models (RCMs) were used in conjunction with the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrological model to produce hydrological projections. For the future climate of the Yangtze River basin, outputs from an ensemble of RCMs indicate that the annual mean temperature will increase for 2020–2049 by 1.81 °C for RCP4.5 and by 2.26 °C for RCP8.5. The annual mean precipitation is projected to increase by 3.62% under RCP4.5 and 7.65% under RCP8.5. Overall, increases in precipitation are amplified in streamflow, and the change in streamflow also shows significant temporal and spatial variations and large divergence between regional climate models. At the same time, the maximum streamflow in different durations are also projected to increase at three mainstream gauging stations based on flood frequency analysis. In particular, larger increases in maximum 1-day streamflow (+14.24% on average) compared to 5-day and 15-day water volumes (+12.79% and +10.24%) indicate that this projected extreme streamflow increase would be primarily due to intense short-period rainfall events. It is necessary to consider the impacts of climate change in future water resource management.

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Section: The Vic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

Projected Changes in Hydrological Extremes in the Yangtze River Basin with an Ensemble of Regional Climate Simulations

Yang

et al. 2018

Water

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“…Climate change will directly change the spatial distribution and temporal variability of atmospheric precipitation and change the spatial configuration of runoff [4,5]. Changes in land use can directly lead to changes in the production and flow processes, which lead to changes in runoff [6,7]. To some extent, changes in land use also represent the impact of human activities on water resources [8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Land Use and Climate Change Effects on Surface Runoff Variations in the Upper Heihe River Basin

Shang

Jiang

Jia

et al. 2019

Water

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The runoff in the upper reaches of the Heihe River has been continuously abundant for more than a decade, and this has not happened previously in history. Quantitative analysis of runoff variation and its influencing factors are of great significance for the ecological protection of the basin. In this paper, the soil and water assessment tool model was used to simulate runoff in the study area, and the method of scenario simulation was used to quantitatively analyze the runoff response with respect to land use and climate change. According to the abruptness of the runoff sequence, the years before 2004 are categorized as belonging to the reference period, and after 2004 is categorized as the interference period. According to the analysis, compared with the reference period, the contribution rate of climate change is 87.15%, while the contribution rate of land use change is only 12.85%. The climate change scenario simulation analysis shows that the change in runoff is positively correlated with the change in precipitation. The relationship with the change in temperature is more complicated, but the influence of precipitation change is stronger than the change in temperature. According to the land use scenario simulation analysis, under the economic development scenario, the runoff decreased, whereas under the historical trend and ecological protection scenario, the runoff increased. Additionally, the runoff increased more under the ecological protection scenario.

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“…The metric chosen for this service is m 3 •year −1 , that is, the volume of freshwater recharged to the groundwater. The data of percentage of precipitation charging groundwater was collected from the literature where the results show that an average groundwater recharge volume is approximately 20% of the precipitation in the Yangtze Delta Region [43,44]. The perennial mean precipitation in the Zhangxi catchment ranges from 1341 mm to 1961 mm, with an average of 1480 mm.…”

Section: Freshwater Storage and Supplymentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Valuation of Earth’s Critical Zone: A Pilot Study of the Zhangxi Catchment, China

et al. 2020

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Earth’s critical zone is the physical layer contained between the top of the vegetation canopy and the depth of the circulating groundwater below the land surface. The critical zone is defined within the study of Earth natural sciences as the unique terrestrial biophysical system that supplies most life-sustaining resources for humans. A feature of this specific physical system that is defined by geographical locale is the interactions of people with the vertically-connected biophysical flows and transformations (energy, material, biodiversity) that contribute to human welfare by delivering, both directly and indirectly, critical zone services to humankind. We have characterized these interactions by considering the full extent of the critical zone through the application of economic valuation methods. We estimated the current economic value of 14 critical zone services for 5 biophysical components of Earth’s critical zone, based on data collected from the Zhangxi catchment of Ningbo city located in the Yangtze River Delta region of China and from several additional published studies. For the full vertical extent of Earth’s critical zone bounded by the Zhangxi catchment, the value, most of which is outside the market, was estimated to be USD 116 million in 2018. Valuation of goods and services was delineated for benefits arising from key components of the critical zone physical system. The estimated value of the atmospheric component of Earth’s critical zone was USD 5 million; the vegetation component value was USD 96 million; the soil component value was USD 8 million; the surface water component value was USD 5 million; and the groundwater component value was USD 2 million. Because of the nature of the uncertainties and lack of data for the full range of identified services, these values are considered a minimum estimate. Gross domestic product in the Zhangxi catchment was around USD 431 million in 2018. These results illustrate, for one location, the range of services that arise when considering the full depth of Earth’s critical zone, the data needs for valuing this range of services, and the conceptual and potential methodological advances, and the challenges, that exist at the disciplinary interface between Earth natural sciences and applied economics.

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Climate change impacts on Yangtze River discharge at the Three Gorges Dam

Cited by 65 publications

References 60 publications

Projected Changes in Hydrological Extremes in the Yangtze River Basin with an Ensemble of Regional Climate Simulations

Projected Changes in Hydrological Extremes in the Yangtze River Basin with an Ensemble of Regional Climate Simulations

Land Use and Climate Change Effects on Surface Runoff Variations in the Upper Heihe River Basin

Economic Valuation of Earth’s Critical Zone: A Pilot Study of the Zhangxi Catchment, China

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