Climate change implications for stand yields and soil expectation values: A northern Saskatchewan case study

Johnston, Mark; Williamson, Tim

doi:10.5558/tfc81683-5

Cited by 20 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Most of the wood that will be harvested in Canada over the next 50 to 100 years will come from trees that are already growing or will be planted in the next decade with minimal climate change adaptation considerations. In some areas there will be an increase in forest productivity while in other areas there will be a decrease (Spittlehouse 2003, Hogg and Bernier 2005, Johnson and Williamson 2005. What will this mean for rotation ages, wood quality, wood volume, size of logs and determining the annual allowable cut?…”

Section: Adapting To Climate Change In Forestry -Challengesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These changes would significantly affect forest ecosystems and their utilization by society. Predicted changes include the movement of species ranges northward and up in elevation, new assemblages of species occurring in space and time, and changes in disturbance regimes, forest productivity and water resources (Stewart et al 1998, Kirschbaum 2000, Dale et al 2001, Mote et al 2003, Gray 2005, Hogg and Bernier 2005, Johnson and Williamson 2005, Volney and Hirsch 2005. Forest management decisions are usually based on the assumption that the climate remains relatively stable throughout a forest's life.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Integrating climate change adaptation into forest management

Spittlehouse¹

2005

The Forestry Chronicle

243

284

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Future climate change will affect society's ability to use forest resources. We take account of climate in forest management and this will help us adapt to the effects of climate change on forests. However, society will have to adjust to how forests adapt by changing expectations for the use of forest resources because management can only influence the timing and direction of forest adaptation at selected locations. There will be benefits as well as loses and an important component of adaptation will be balancing values. Adaptation options to respond to impacts on the timber supply in Canada for the next 50 to 100 years are limited mainly to forest protection and wood utilisation because these forests are already in the ground. Adaptation through reforestation will focus on commercial tree species. It is important to start developing adaptation strategies now. These include assessing forest vulnerability to climate change, revising expectations of forest use, determining research and educational needs, development of forest policies to facilitate adaptation, and determining when to implement responses. Government agencies should take the lead in creating an environment to foster adaptation in forestry and in developing the necessary information required to respond.

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Section: Adapting To Climate Change In Forestry -Challengesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating climate change adaptation into forest management

Spittlehouse¹

2005

The Forestry Chronicle

243

284

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“…This should allow them to be better able to develop forest management practices that are more robust to a range of possible changes in future moisture conditions for inclusion in long-term forest management plans. For example, observed and projected trends in CMI and PDSI indices can be used as "early warning" indicators of potential future impacts such as changes in tree mortality due to drought Bernier 2005, Michaelian et al 2011), changes in forest pest activity due to decreased tree resistance (Safranyik 2011), changes in the frequency and severity of forest fires due to changes in moisture levels of fuels and surface litter (de Groot et al 2013), changes in the percentage of reforested sites that reach free-to-grow status, and changes in site productivity and forest land values (Johnston and Williamson 2005). In the future, other drought indices may also be developed to assess and project changes in moisture conditions in Canadian boreal forests.…”

Section: Potential Implications For Forest Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past and projected future changes in moisture conditions in the Canadian boreal forest

Wang

Hogg

Price

et al. 2014

The Forestry Chronicle

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Spatial data for the Climate Moisture Index and the Palmer Drought Severity Index were generated from gridded temperature and precipitation data for the Canadian boreal zone over the period . Annual values for the indices for 2011-2100 were generated from projections of future climate derived from four general circulation models forced by three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Linear regression models between the indices and time were fitted to examine long-term trends. Results indicated that several large regions of the Canadian boreal forest experienced substantial drying during 1951-2010. Future projections indicated a general trend toward drier conditions during the 21 st century. Overall, the analysis indicated more frequent and/or more severe droughts across managed western and central portions of the boreal forest in coming decades. These projections of indices are relevant to forest management because soil moisture availability is an important determinant of forest distribution, tree health, and regeneration success. Knowledge of the range of potential future changes in drought occurrence and intensity will aid forest managers and decisionmakers in incorporating climate change considerations into forest management planning and practices.

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“…Understanding the potential impacts of climate change on forest productivity is useful for incorporating climate change into forest management plan and silvicultural decision-making process. Currently, the annual allowable cut and rotation age are determined by empirical growth and yield models based on historical data, which do not and cannot respond to current or future climate scenarios (Johnson & Williamson 2005). Empirical models with a climate-sensitive site index as an important driving variable could project future growth and yield under climate change, thus providing forest managers with a useful tool for adapting their plans.…”

Section: Implications For Forest Management Planning Of Larch Plantatmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential impacts of regional climate change on site productivity of Larix olgensis plantations in northeast China

Shen¹,

Lei²,

Liu³

et al. 2015

iForest

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© iForest -Biogeosciences and Forestry IntroductionUnderstanding how climate change affects forest site productivity is of great importance for adaptive forest management under climate change conditions. Forest site productivity, as a quantitative estimate of the potential for producing plant biomass at a site, is a significant indicator of forest quality, as well as an important variable of forest growth models in forest management (Skovsgaard & Vanclay 2008). However, site productivity presents great spatial and temporal variability (Skovsgaard & Vanclay 2013). Climate change directly or indirectly affects forest productivity due to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperatures, changes in the amount and timing of precipitation and the interactions of forest ecosystems (Kirilenko & Sedjo 2007, Medlyn et al. 2011. Experiments, observations and models indicate that the forest productivity changes with climate change, but the direction and magnitude of the effects are still uncertain (Medlyn et al. 2011). Using dominant height as a measure of site productivity, Bontemps et al. (2009) reported an increase of more than 50% in common beech at the end of the 20 th century in north-eastern France, whereas Badeau et al. (1995) found an increase of 27%. Charru et al. (2010) found an increase of 27.8% in stand basal area increment between 1977 and 1987, and a decrease of approximately 5% between 1987 and 2004. Both positive and negative estimated impacts on forest growth have been reported depending on the climate scenarios employed (Lutz et al. 2013).One of the most widely used indicators of forest site productivity in forest management is the site index (SI), which is the mean height of the dominant trees growing on a site at a reference age (Carmean 1975, Skovsgaard & Vanclay 2008. The site index is assumed to be constant over time, and thus included as a driving variable in forest growth and yield models. In reality, the site index often varies greatly due to changes in the genetic make-up of stands, climatic conditions and management practices (Monserud & Rehfeldt 1990, Valentine 1997, Weiskittel et al. 2011). Empirical models have been developed to estimate the site index from climate, soil and vegetation information, thus allowing the possibility of predicting changes in the site index, forest growth and forest yield under climate change (McKenney & Pedlar 2003, Nigh et al. 2004, Monserud et al. 2006, 2008, Albert & Schmidt 2009, Aertsen et al. 2011, Nothdurft et al. 2012. The climate variables that influence the site index vary with species and sites, as do the magnitude of these variables (Messaoud & Chen 2011). Nigh et al. (2004 developed climate-sensitive site index models of three species (spruce, lodgepole pine and Douglas fir) in the interior of British Columbia, Canada. They found that the site index for all species increased as the temperature rose, and that site index increased with precipitation for the two latter species. Monserud et al. (2006) found that the strongest linear predictors of site...

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Climate change implications for stand yields and soil expectation values: A northern Saskatchewan case study

Cited by 20 publications

References 20 publications

Integrating climate change adaptation into forest management

Integrating climate change adaptation into forest management

Past and projected future changes in moisture conditions in the Canadian boreal forest

Potential impacts of regional climate change on site productivity of Larix olgensis plantations in northeast China

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