Climate Change Implications for Tropical Islands: Interpolating and Interpreting Statistically Downscaled GCM Projections for Management and Planning

Khalyani, Azad Henareh; Gould, William A.; Harmsen, Eric W.; Terando, Adam; Quiñones, Maya; Collazo, Jaime A.

doi:10.1175/jamc-d-15-0182.1

Cited by 82 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…More recently, other studies indicate that the frequency of drought and inter-annual variation in rainfall may also be increasing in the region [66,67]. As the climate changes in the Caribbean, wetter life zones may be replaced by drier life zones, as predicted for Puerto Rico based on analyses using model averaging of statistically downscaled general circulation models by IITF colleagues [68].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

The Plight of Migrant Birds Wintering in the Caribbean: Rainfall Effects in the Annual Cycle

Wunderle

Arendt

2017

Forests

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Here, we summarize results of migrant bird research in the Caribbean as part of a 75th Anniversary Symposium on research of the United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service, International Institute of Tropical Forestry (IITF). The fate of migratory birds has been a concern stimulating research over the past 40 years in response to population declines documented in long-term studies including those of the IITF and collaborators in Puerto Rico's Guánica dry forest. Various studies indicate that in addition to forest loss or fragmentation, some migrant declines may be due to rainfall variation, the consequences of which may carry over from one stage of a migrant's annual cycle to another. For example, the Guánica studies indicate that rainfall extremes on either the temperate breeding or tropical wintering grounds affect migrant abundance and survival differently depending on the species. In contrast, IITF's collaborative studies of the migrant Kirtland's Warbler (Setophaga kirtlandii) in the Bahamas found that late winter droughts affect its annual survival and breeding success in Michigan. We review these IITF migrant studies and relate them to other studies, which have improved our understanding of migrant ecology of relevance to conservation. Particularly important is the advent of the full annual cycle (FAC) approach. The FAC will facilitate future identification and mitigation of limiting factors contributing to migrant population declines, which for some species, may be exacerbated by global climate change.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

The Plight of Migrant Birds Wintering in the Caribbean: Rainfall Effects in the Annual Cycle

Wunderle

Arendt

2017

Forests

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“…, Khalyani et al. , Herrera and Ault ), few studies have considered how drought affects Caribbean forests (but see Burrowes et al. , Reyer et al.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…, Khalyani et al. ). Results from experimental studies in the Amazon have found that tropical forests are highly vulnerable to multiyear drought (Nepstad et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Fragmentation, forest structure, and topography modulate impacts of drought in a tropical forest landscape

Schwartz

Budsock

Uriarte

2019

Ecology

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Climate models predict increases in drought conditions in many parts of the tropics. Yet the response of tropical forests to drought remains highly uncertain, especially with regards to the factors that generate spatial heterogeneity in drought response across landscapes. In this study, we used Landsat imagery to assess the impacts of a severe drought in 2015 across an ~80,000‐ha landscape in Puerto Rico. Specifically, we asked whether drought effects varied systematically with topography and with forest age, height, and fragmentation. We quantified drought impacts using anomalies of two vegetation indices, the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and normalized difference water index (NDWI), and fit random forest models of these metrics including slope, aspect, forest age, canopy height, and two indices of fragmentation as predictors. Drought effects were more severe on drier topographic positions, that is, steeper slopes and southwest‐facing aspects, and in second‐growth forests. Shorter and more fragmented forests were also more strongly affected by drought. We also assessed which factors were associated with stronger recovery from drought. Factors associated with more negative drought anomalies were also associated with more positive postdrought anomalies, suggesting that increased light availability as a result of drought led to high rates of recovery in forests more severely affected by drought. In general, recovery from drought was rapid across the landscape, with postdrought anomalies at or above average across the study area. This suggests that forests in Puerto Rico might be resilient to a single‐year drought, though vulnerability to drought varies depending on forest characteristics and landscape position.

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“…In both cases, mean daily minimum temperature was more important than maximum temperature to explain fires. Given the projections that precipitation will decline in tropical islands including Puerto Rico and that this decline will cause increases in drought intensity [33], special care should be taken when selecting climatic variables for fire prediction models.…”

Section: Forest Ecology and Conservationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Lowland moist and montane forests are less susceptible to fires, though they can burn in dry years [25]. Understanding the relationship of current climate, landscape, and population can help predict the likelihood of increasing risk of fire occurrence in light of climate change projections in tropical islands [33]. Puerto Rico is an example from a tropical insular region where rapid and complex changes in land-use and land-cover (LULC) are occurring and where fire-prone ecosystems are being created [34,35].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterizing Predictability of Fire Occurrence in Tropical Forests and Grasslands: The Case of Puerto Rico

Monmany¹,

Gould²,

Núñez³

et al. 2017

Forest Ecology and Conservation

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Global estimates of fire frequency indicate that over 70% of active fires occur in the tropics, and the size and frequency of fires are increasing every year. The majority of fires in the tropics are an unintended consequence of current land-use practices that promotes the establishment of grass and shrubland communities, which are more flammable and more adapted to fire than forests. In the Caribbean, wildland fires occur mainly in dry forests and in grasslands and crop lands. Climate change projections for the Caribbean indicate increasing area of drylands and subsequent increasing potential for wildland fire. We assessed the last decade of fire occurrence records for Puerto Rico to quantify the relative importance of time, climate, land cover, and population to inform predictive models of fire occurrence for projecting future scenarios of fire risk. Kruskal-Wallis, generalized linear models, robust regression, simple and multiple regressions, and tree models were used. We found that hour of the day (time), mean minimum temperature (climate), and percent forest cover (land cover) significantly influenced fire occurrence, while population showed a weak effect. Many variable interactions showed to be important. These significant variables and interactions should be considered in fire-predicting models for the island.

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Climate Change Implications for Tropical Islands: Interpolating and Interpreting Statistically Downscaled GCM Projections for Management and Planning

Cited by 82 publications

References 49 publications

The Plight of Migrant Birds Wintering in the Caribbean: Rainfall Effects in the Annual Cycle

The Plight of Migrant Birds Wintering in the Caribbean: Rainfall Effects in the Annual Cycle

Fragmentation, forest structure, and topography modulate impacts of drought in a tropical forest landscape

Characterizing Predictability of Fire Occurrence in Tropical Forests and Grasslands: The Case of Puerto Rico

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