Climate change in Africa: costs of mitigating heat stress

Parkes, Ben; Cronin, Jennifer; Dessens, Olivier; Sultan, Benjamin

doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02405-w

Cited by 41 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Flooding is the major climate hazard experienced by Kampala [ 46 , 47 ]. However, Kampala is also defined as one of the region’s most vulnerable cities when it comes to heat stress [ 48 ]. Urbanisation and climate change could cause heat stress [ 34 , 49 ] and flood risks [ 25 , 50 , 51 ] to increase.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How urbanisation alters the intensity of the urban heat island in a tropical African city

2021

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Due to the combined effects of urban growth and climate change, rapid urbanisation is particularly challenging in African cities. Areas that will house a large proportion of the urban population in the future coincide with where natural hazards are expected to occur, and where hazard risk management institutions, knowledge, and capacity are often lacking. One of the challenges posed by rapid urbanisation is the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, whereby urban areas are warmer than the surrounding rural areas. This study investigates urbanisation patterns and alterations in surface UHI (SUHI) intensity for the Kampala urban cluster, Uganda. Analyses show that between 1995 and 2017, Kampala underwent extensive changes to its urban built-up area. From the centre of the city to adjoining non-built up areas in all directions, the urban land cover increased from 12,133 ha in 1995 to 25,389 ha in 2016. The area of SUHI intensity in Kampala expanded significantly over the 15-year period of study, expanding from 22,910 ha in 2003 to 27,900 ha in 2016, while the annual daytime SUHI of 2.2°C in 2003 had decreased to 1.9°C by 2017. Although SUHI intensity decreased in some parts of the city, elsewhere it increased, suggesting that urbanisation does not always lead to a deterioration of environmental conditions. We postulate that urban development may therefore not necessarily create an undesirable impact on local climate if it is properly managed. Rapidly growing cities in Africa and elsewhere should ensure that the dynamics of their development are directed towards mitigating potentially harmful environmental impacts, such as UHI effect through careful planning that considers both bluespaces and greenspaces.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How urbanisation alters the intensity of the urban heat island in a tropical African city

2021

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“…However, air-conditioning is not always an option due to increases in costs, energy consumption, and carbon emissions [21].…”

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confidence: 99%

Dwelling Characteristics Influence Indoor Temperature and May Pose Health Threats in LMICs

Teare

Mathee

Naicker

et al. 2020

Annals of Global Health

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Introduction Safe housing is a basic human need that contributes to a sense of belonging, ownership, identity, citizenship, and self-sufficiency [1]. Globally, 1.6 billion people live in inadequate housing, of which one billion reside in slums and informal settlements [2]. These settlements may be situated in environmentally unsafe or unhealthy areas, for example, in river flood zones and near industry. Many of the inhabitants who live there, live with little or no tenure for land or dwellings (e.g. rent informally) and typically have no or infrequent supply of basic services. In addition, an important element of safe housing is thermal comfort. Cold and heat extreme temperatures impact human health. In general, people at increased risk of temperature-related illnesses are those with (1) pre-existing health conditions, such as cardiovascular

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“…They account for spatially explicit climate, housing types, and access to electricity and air conditioning ownership; they find that covering the estimated cooling gap entails a median energy demand growth of 14% of current global residential electricity consumption. Similarly, Parkes et al (2019) utilize the apparent temperature and humidex metrics to calculate current and future heat stress in Africa. They project that climate change is likely to increase the intensity of heat stress events in Sahelian Africa, and also likely to introduce new heat stress events in Northern and Central Africa, with consequent increase in energy-intensive cooling.…”

Section: Energy Needs For Climate Change Adaptation Acc Demand and Related Greenhouse Gas Emissionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Finally, some estimates of the consequent costs for households in different regions have been produced, e.g. for Africa (Parkes et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of residential air circulation and cooling demand for electrification planning: Implications of climate change in sub-Saharan Africa

Falchetta

Mistry

2021

Energy Economics

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Nearly 1 billion people live without electricity at home. Energy poverty limits their ability to take autonomous actions to improve air circulation and the cooling of their homes. It is therefore important that electricityaccess planners explicitly evaluate the current and future air circulation and cooling needs of energy-poor households, in addition to other basic energy needs. To address this issue, we combine climate, socio-economic, demographic and satellite data with scenario analysis to model spatially explicit estimates of potential cooling demand from households that currently lack access to electricity. We link these demand factors into a bottom-up electrification model for sub-Saharan Africa, the region with the world's highest concentration of energy poverty. Accounting for cooling needs on top of baseline household demand implies that the average electrification investment requirements grow robustly (a scenario mean of 65.5% more than when considering baseline household demand only), mostly due to the larger generation capacity needed. Future climate change could increase the investment requirements by an additional scenario mean of 4%. Moreover, the share of decentralised systems as the lowest-cost electrification option falls by a scenario mean 4.5 percentage points of all new connections. The crucial determinants for efficient investment pathways are the adoption and use of cooling appliances, the extent of climate change, and the baseline electricity demand. Our results call for a more explicit consideration of climate-adaptative energy needs by infrastructure planners in developing countries.

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Climate change in Africa: costs of mitigating heat stress

Cited by 41 publications

References 38 publications

How urbanisation alters the intensity of the urban heat island in a tropical African city

How urbanisation alters the intensity of the urban heat island in a tropical African city

Dwelling Characteristics Influence Indoor Temperature and May Pose Health Threats in LMICs

The role of residential air circulation and cooling demand for electrification planning: Implications of climate change in sub-Saharan Africa

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