Climate change in the Fraser River watershed: flow and temperature projections

Morrison, John R.; Quick, Michael C.; Foreman, Michael

doi:10.1016/s0022-1694(02)00065-3

Cited by 260 publications

(257 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…The various studies and applications of the UBCWM have been well documented over time (e.g. Quick & Pipes, 1977;Singh & Quick, 1993;Loukas & Quick, 1996;Morrison et al, 2002). Micovic & Quick (1999) demonstrated that the model performs well for a large range of watershed sizes and in different hydrological zones.…”

Section: Methodsologymentioning

confidence: 97%

Investigation of the model complexity required in runoff simulation at different time scales / Etude de la complexité de modélisation requise pour la simulation d'écoulement à différentes échelles temporelles

Mićović

Quick

2009

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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The "optimal" model complexity is defined as the minimum watershed model structure required for realistic representation of runoff processes. This paper examines the effects of model complexity at different time scales, daily and hourly. Two watershed models with different levels of complexity were constructed and their capability to simulate runoff from a watershed was evaluated. Both models were tested on the same watershed using identical meteorological input, thereby assuring that any difference between model outputs is due only to their model structure. It is demonstrated that, at a daily time scale, a simple model gives good results. For the mountain situation, in which snowmelt is a dominant influence, the nonlinearity of the runoff processes is moderate, and therefore a simple model works well. The model produced good results over a period of 28 years of continuous simulation. However, this simpler model was inadequate when tested on an hourly time scale due to greater nonlinear effects, especially when modelling high-intensity rainfall events. Therefore, the hourly simulation benefited from the more complex model structure. These model results show that optimal watershed model complexity depends on temporal resolution, namely the simulation period and the computational time step. It was shown that certain process representations and model parameters that appeared unimportant during the long-term simulation had significant effects on the short-term extreme event model simulation.Key words watershed model; model complexity; runoff simulation; temporal resolution; UBC watershed model Etude de la complexité de modélisation requise pour la simulation d'écoulement à différentes échelles temporelles Résumé La complexité "optimale" d'une modélisation est définie comme étant la structure minimale du modèle de bassin versant requise pour représenter de manière réaliste les processus d'écoulement. Cet article examine les effets de la complexité de modélisation à différentes échelles temporelles, journalière et horaire. Deux modèles de bassin versant de niveaux de complexité différents ont été construits et leurs aptitudes à simuler l'écoulement d'un bassin versant ont été évaluées. Les deux modèles ont été testés pour le même bassin versant à partir des mêmes données météorologiques en entrée, ce qui assure que toute différence entre les sorties ne provient que de leurs structures. Il est mis en évidence que, au pas de temps journalier, un modèle simple donne de bon résultats. En situation montagneuse, où la fonte nivale a une influence dominante, la non-linéarité des processus d'écoulement est modérée, et un modèle simple donne par conséquent de bons résultats. Le modèle donne de bons résultats pour une simulation continue sur une période de 28 ans. Cependant, ce modèle plus simple n'est plus adéquat lorsqu'il est testé au pas de temps horaire, en raison d'effets non-linéaires plus accentués, en particulier lors de la modélisation d'événements de forte intensité pluvieuse. Par conséquent, la simulation ho...

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Section: Methodsologymentioning

confidence: 97%

Investigation of the model complexity required in runoff simulation at different time scales / Etude de la complexité de modélisation requise pour la simulation d'écoulement à différentes échelles temporelles

Mićović

Quick

2009

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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“…Direct impacts on the Fraser River due to global warming are likely to cause a shift towards an earlier and weaker spring freshet, with mean summer water temperatures increased by up to 2°C, by the year 2100 (Morrison et al, 2002;Shrestha et al, 2012). Such an increase in water temperature and decrease in late summer discharge are vital threats to the iconic salmon runs of the Fraser basin (Hague et al, 2011;Healey and Bradford, 2011).…”

Section: Fraser River Basin Environmental Settingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Given the anticipated changes in hydrology in the Fraser basin under a warming climate, particularly decreases in snowpack and an earlier onset to the spring freshet (Morrison et al, 2002;, understanding freshet biogeochemical dynamics under present conditions is critical to predicting and preparing for the consequences of future changes.…”

Section: Biogeochemical Dynamics Of Doc Have Not Previously Been Invementioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and temporal dynamics of biogeochemical processes in the Fraser River, Canada : a coupled organic-inorganic perspective

Voß¹

2014

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The great geologic and climatic diversity of the Fraser River basin in southwestern Canada render it an excellent location for understanding biogeochemical cycling of sediments and terrigenous organic carbon in a relatively pristine, large, temperate watershed. Sediments delivered by all tributaries have the potential to reach the ocean due to a lack of main stem lakes or impoundments, a unique feature for a river of its size. This study documents the concentrations of a suite of dissolved and particulate organic and inorganic constituents, which elucidate spatial and temporal variations in chemical weathering (including carbonate weathering in certain areas) as well as organic carbon mobilization, export, and biogeochemical transformation. Radiogenic strontium isotopes are employed as a tracer of sediment provenance based on the wide variation in bedrock age and lithology in the Fraser basin. The influence of sediments derived from the headwaters is detectable at the river mouth, however more downstream sediment sources predominate, particularly during high discharge conditions. Bulk radiocarbon analyses are used to quantify terrestrial storage timescales of organic carbon and distinguish between petrogenic and biospheric organic carbon, which is critical to assessing the role of rivers in long-term atmospheric CO 2 consumption. The estimated terrestrial residence time of biospheric organic carbon in the Fraser basin is 650 years, which is relatively short compared to other larger rivers (Amazon, Ganges-Brahmaputra) in which this assessment has been performed, and is likely related to the limited floodplain storage capacity and non-steadystate post-glacial erosion state of the Fraser River. A large portion of the dissolved inorganic carbon load of the Fraser River (>80%) is estimated to derive from remineralization of dissolved organic carbon, particularly during the annual spring freshet when organic carbon concentrations increase rapidly. This thesis establishes a baseline for carbon cycling in a largely unperturbed modern mid-latitude river system and establishes a framework for future process studies on the mechanisms of organic carbon turnover and organic matter-mineral associations in river systems.

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“…In terms of water management, the primary concerns involve an earlier melt of the winter snowpack, leading to an earlier (and potentially more intense) freshet peak with concomitant risks of flooding, followed by lower late summer flows that can pose risks to ecological functions and a reduced availability of water for agricultural and domestic/industrial uses. For some regions of western North America, decreasing absolute and/or fractional streamflows have already been reported during the late spring and summer periods [1,4,6,7], with increasing absolute and/or fractional streamflows during the late winter and early spring periods [2,[4][5][6][7]15], and an earlier arrival of the spring runoff peak [3][4][5][6][9][10][11][13][14][15][16].…”

mentioning

confidence: 96%

“…[1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]). There continues to be active debate in the literature as to whether any hydrologic changes are occurring, and if so, whether they can be ascribed to natural cycles or human-induced alterations of the climatic system.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Historical temporal trends in monthly, seasonal, and annual mean, minimum, and maximum streamflows from the Okanagan River watershed in south-central British Columbia, Canada

Rayne¹,

Forest²

2011

Nature Precedings

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Climate change in the Fraser River watershed: flow and temperature projections

Cited by 260 publications

References 14 publications

Investigation of the model complexity required in runoff simulation at different time scales / Etude de la complexité de modélisation requise pour la simulation d'écoulement à différentes échelles temporelles

Investigation of the model complexity required in runoff simulation at different time scales / Etude de la complexité de modélisation requise pour la simulation d'écoulement à différentes échelles temporelles

Spatial and temporal dynamics of biogeochemical processes in the Fraser River, Canada : a coupled organic-inorganic perspective

Historical temporal trends in monthly, seasonal, and annual mean, minimum, and maximum streamflows from the Okanagan River watershed in south-central British Columbia, Canada

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