Climate change, innovation and jobs

Abstract

The employment effect of climate policy has emerged as an important concem of policy makers, not least in the USA. Yet the impact of climate policy on jobs is complex. In the short term, jobs will shift from high-carbon activities to low-carbon activities. The net effect could be job creation, as low-carbon technologies tend to be more labour-intensive, at least in the short term until efficiency gains bring down costs. In the medium term, the effect will be felt economy-wide as value chains and production patterns adjust. This effect is more difficult to gauge, particularly if climate policy is unilateral and trade effects have to be taken into account. However, the biggest effect is expected to be long term, when climate policy will trigger widespread structural adjustment. Such episodes of 'creative destruction' are often associated with innovation, job creation and growth. Les conséquences de la politique climatique sur l'emploi émergent en tant que question importante pour les décideurs, non pour le moindre aux Etats-Unis. Cependant l'impact des politiques climatiques sur les métiers est complexe. A court terme les métiers passeront d'activités à haute Intensité carbone à des activités sobres en carbone. L'effet netpourrait se sentir dans la création d'emplois, vu que les tectinologies sobres en carbone ont tendance à être plus intensive en main d'oeuvre, si ce n'est dans le court terme. A moyen terme, l'effet se répercutera dans toute l'économie par l'ajustement des chaînes de valeur et coûts de production. Cet effet est plus difficile à évaluer particulièrement pour une politique climatique unilatérale, et les effets sur le commerce doivent être pris en compte. Cependant l'effet le plus considérable sera à long terme, lorsque la politique climatique produira des ajustements structuraux étendus. De tels épisodes de « destruction créatrice » sont souvent associés à l'innovation, la création d'emploi et la croissance. earthscan 422 Fankhauser et al.

Environmental Jobs and Growth in the United States

“…Wei et al (2010) American countries, Rutovitz (2010) looks at South Africa whilst Upadhyay and Pahuja (2010) examine the case for India. Fankhauser et al (2008) discusses the green jobs debate within the context of time horizons (also conceptualised by Deschenes 2013) and argues that in the short term jobs may be lost in adversely affected sectors, in the medium term there will be jobs created and destroyed and in the long-term learning-by-doing should increase labor productivity from the promotion of green technologies. 7…”

The greener the better? Job creation effects of environmentally-friendly technological change

“…Both theory and empirical evidence support the view that technological opportunities greatly change from infancy to the maturity of a market: in the early years, the scope for innovation is at its highest, but as a product or a market becomes more mature, technological opportunities decrease. Frankhauser et al (2008) detects a similar trail for the green sector, adopting a time horizon approach to predict the evolutionary path of the green sector, mostly related to its ability to generate new jobs. In the short run, a direct employment effect generates job losses in sectors adversely affected by climate change policies and new jobs in sectors taking advantage from these initiatives.…”

The costs of climate policies in a second-best world with labour market imperfections

“…For instance, Jochem and Hohmeyer (1992), Laitner et al (1998) andWalz (1999) propose quantifications of mitigation-driven job creation. More recent publications (OECD, 2004;Fankhauser et al, 2008;Moreno and Lopez, 2008;ETUC et al, 2009) illustrate the renewed interest in this topic.…”