Climate change is catchy – but when will it really hurt?

Sweijd, Neville; Wright, Caradee Y.; Westwood, Anthony; Rouault, Mathieu; Landman, Willem A.; MacKenzie, Monique; Nuttall, James; Mahomed, Hassan; Cousins, Thomas; Winter, Kevin; Berhoozi, F.; Kalule, John Bosco; Kruger, Philip; Govender, Thilo; Minakawa, Noboru

doi:10.7196/samj.2015.v105i12.10332

Cited by 10 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…The review covers the direct impacts on health through extreme events and temperature increases, but also the more indirect impacts mediated through natural systems (for example infectious diseases) and through social vulnerabilities [ 12 ]. While several narrative reviews have summed the impacts of climate change on health in South Africa [ 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 ], there is a need to review more up to date literature and to collate evidence in a systematic manner.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Climate Change on Health and Wellbeing in South Africa

Chersich

Wright

Venter

et al. 2018

IJERPH

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Given its associated burden of disease, climate change in South Africa could be reframed as predominately a health issue, one necessitating an urgent health-sector response. The growing impact of climate change has major implications for South Africa, especially for the numerous vulnerable groups in the country. We systematically reviewed the literature by searching PubMed and Web of Science. Of the 820 papers screened, 34 were identified that assessed the impacts of climate change on health in the country. Most papers covered effects of heat on health or on infectious diseases (20/34; 59%). We found that extreme weather events are the most noticeable effects to date, especially droughts in the Western Cape, but rises in vector-borne diseases are gaining prominence. Climate aberration is also linked in myriad ways with outbreaks of food and waterborne diseases, and possibly with the recent Listeria epidemic. The potential impacts of climate change on mental health may compound the multiple social stressors that already beset the populace. Climate change heightens the pre-existing vulnerabilities of women, fishing communities, rural subsistence farmers and those living in informal settlements. Further gender disparities, eco-migration and social disruptions may undermine the prevention—but also treatment—of HIV. Our findings suggest that focused research and effective use of surveillance data are required to monitor climate change’s impacts; traditional strengths of the country’s health sector. The health sector, hitherto a fringe player, should assume a greater leadership role in promoting policies that protect the public’s health, address inequities and advance the country’s commitments to climate change accords.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Climate Change on Health and Wellbeing in South Africa

Chersich

Wright

Venter

et al. 2018

IJERPH

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“…Fourteen research and review articles, commentaries and editorials were published thus far on the anticipated health effects due to climate or climate change in South Africa and the need for local epidemiological studies to assist policy makers in formulating preventive actions  the first nearly 40 years ago (Sweijd et al, 2015;Kjellstrom et al 2014;Bowles and Butler, 2014;Garland, 2014;Abayomi and Cowan, 2014;Wright et al 2014a;2014;Wright et al 2014b;Myers et al, 2011a;Myers et al, 2011a;Bateman, 2009;Jones, 1997;Wyndham et al, 1978).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Heat effects of ambient apparent temperature on all-cause mortality in Cape Town, Durban and Johannesburg, South Africa: 2006–2010

Wichmann

2017

Science of The Total Environment

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Due to climate change, an increase of 3-4°C in ambient temperature is projected along the South African coast and 6-7°C inland during the next 80years. The objective of this study was to investigate the association between daily ambient apparent temperature (Tapp) and daily all-cause non-accidental mortality (hereafter mortality) in Cape Town, Durban and Johannesburg during a 5-year study period (2006-2010). Susceptibility by sex and age groups (<15years, 15-64years and ≥65years) was also investigated. The associations were investigated with the time-stratified case-crossover epidemiological design. Models were controlled for PM, public holidays and influenza epidemics. City-specific Tapp thresholds were determined using quasi-Poisson generalised additive models. The pooled estimates by sex and age groups were determined in meta-analyses. The city-specific Tapp thresholds were 18.6°C, 24.8°C and 18.7°C, respectively for Cape Town, Durban and Johannesburg. A 3.3%, 2.6% and 2.8% increase in mortality per IQR increase in Tapp (lag0-1) was observed in Cape Town, Durban and Johannesburg, respectively above the city-specific thresholds. The elderly were more at risk in Cape Town and Johannesburg. No difference in risk was observed for males and females in the three cities. In the meta-analysis an overall significant increase of 0.9% in mortality per 1°C increase in Tapp (lag0-1) was observed for all age groups combined in the three cities. For the ≥65year group a significant increase of 2.1% in mortality was observed. In conclusion, the risks for all age groups combined and the elderly are similar to those reported in studies from developed and developing countries. The results can be used in present-day early warning systems and in risk assessments to estimate the impact of increased Tapp in the country due to climate change. Future research should investigate the association between Tapp and cause-specific mortality and also morbidity.

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“…Interview participants, especially those working in child health for many years, noted an initial drastic decrease in mortality followed by a more recent decrease in morbidity which they attributed to the success of diarrhoeal disease interventions over the peak surge season. The shift in peak diarrhoeal disease month in the Western Cape noted by participants was also found in one hospital in Cape Town tracking diarrhoeal disease admission rates from 1976 to 2015, where the peak shifted from January to March [45].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 61%

Understanding diarrhoeal diseases in response to climate variability and drought in Cape Town, South Africa: a mixed methods approach

Lee,

Dalvie,

Röösli

et al. 2023

Infect Dis Poverty

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Background The climate of southern Africa is expected to become hotter and drier with more frequent severe droughts and the incidence of diarrhoea to increase. From 2015 to 2018, Cape Town, South Africa, experienced a severe drought which resulted in extreme water conservation efforts. We aimed to gain a more holistic understanding of the relationship between diarrhoea in young children and climate variability in a system stressed by water scarcity. Methods Using a mixed-methods approach, we explored diarrhoeal disease incidence in children under 5 years between 2010 to 2019 in Cape Town, primarily in the public health system through routinely collected diarrhoeal incidence and weather station data. We developed a negative binomial regression model to understand the relationship between temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity on incidence of diarrhoea with dehydration. We conducted in-depth interviews with stakeholders in the fields of health, environment, and human development on perceptions around diarrhoea and health-related interventions both prior to and over the drought, and analysed them through the framework method. Results From diarrhoeal incidence data, the diarrhoea with dehydration incidence decreased over the decade studied, e.g. reduction of 64.7% in 2019 [95% confidence interval (CI): 5.5–7.2%] compared to 2010, with no increase during the severe drought period. Over the hot dry diarrhoeal season (November to May), the monthly diarrhoea with dehydration incidence increased by 7.4% (95% CI: 4.5–10.3%) per 1 °C increase in temperature and 2.6% (95% CI: 1.7–3.5%) per 1% increase in relative humidity in the unlagged model. Stakeholder interviews found that extensive and sustained diarrhoeal interventions were perceived to be responsible for the overall reduction in diarrhoeal incidence and mortality over the prior decade. During the drought, as diarrhoeal interventions were maintained, the expected increase in incidence in the public health sector did not occur. Conclusions We found that that diarrhoeal incidence has decreased over the last decade and that incidence is strongly influenced by local temperature and humidity, particularly over the hot dry season. While climate change and extreme weather events especially stress systems supporting vulnerable populations such as young children, maintaining strong and consistent public health interventions helps to reduce negative health impacts.

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Climate change is catchy – but when will it really hurt?

Cited by 10 publications

References 35 publications

Impacts of Climate Change on Health and Wellbeing in South Africa

Impacts of Climate Change on Health and Wellbeing in South Africa

Heat effects of ambient apparent temperature on all-cause mortality in Cape Town, Durban and Johannesburg, South Africa: 2006–2010

Understanding diarrhoeal diseases in response to climate variability and drought in Cape Town, South Africa: a mixed methods approach

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