Climate change is creating a mismatch between protected areas and suitable habitats for frogs and birds in Puerto Rico

Abstract

Climate change is altering the spatial distribution of many species around the world. In response, we need to identify and protect suitable areas for a large proportion of the fauna so that they persist through time. This exercise must also evaluate the ability of existing protected areas to provide safe havens for species in the context of climate change. Here, we combined passive acoustic monitoring, semi-automatic species identification models, and species distribution models of 21 bird and frog species based on past (1980–1989), present (2005–2014), and future (2040–2060) climate scenarios to determine how species distributions relate to the current distribution of protected areas in Puerto Rico. Species detection/non-detection data were acquired across ~ 700 sampling sites. We developed always-suitable maps that characterized suitable habitats in all three time periods for each species and overlaid these maps to identify regions with high species co-occurrence. These distributions were then compared with the distribution of existing protected areas. We show that Puerto Rico is projected to become dryer by 2040–2060, and precipitation in the warmest quarter was among the most important variables affecting bird and frog distributions. A large portion of always-suitable areas (ASA) is outside of protected areas (> 80%), and the percent of protected areas that overlaps with always-suitable areas is larger for bird (75%) than frog (39%) species. Our results indicate that present protected areas will not suffice to safeguard bird and frog species under climate change; however, the establishment of larger protected areas, buffer zones, and connectivity between protected areas may allow species to find suitable niches to withstand environmental changes.

Temperature seasonality drives taxonomic and functional homogenization of tropical butterflies

“…The first goal of this study was to model current and projected trends in taxonomic and functional richness and turnover across the topographically complex island of Puerto Rico. Under current climate conditions, butterfly species richness was projected to be the highest along the south‐west coast, mirroring patterns of bird diversity (Acevedo & Restrepo, 2008; Campos‐Cerqueira et al., 2021; Kepler & Kepler, 1970; Smith et al., 2017). A combination of high precipitation seasonality and reduced abundance of amphibians competing with birds for invertebrate prey is suggested as an explanation for high bird richness in this region (Kepler & Kepler, 1970).…”

Applications and advances in acoustic monitoring for infectious disease epidemiology

“…Acoustic methods can provide new opportunities to integrate data at scale into risk modelling and long-term infectious disease surveillance. Acoustic data have already been used to assess the impact of human-modified landscapes on biodiversity [51][52][53][54] and to understanding the impact of climate change on species distributions [55], particularly salient given the rapidity of habitat loss and critical landscape change. Risks of disease emergence or transmission from wildlife to humans are also understood to be affected by changing climates, urbanisation, and landscape modification [56], and there has been considerable progress in incorporating meteorological and environmental information to improve surveillance and early warning systems (EWSs) for climate-sensitive infectious diseases [57][58][59].…”

Automated acoustic detection of river herring (Alewife and Blueback Herring) spawning activity

“…Passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) and automatic detection of auditory signals and cues have been used to study the ecology and behavior of animals across taxa (recent examples in birds: Campos‐Cerqueira et al 2021, Dickerson et al 2022; frogs: Lapp et al 2021; mammals: Bailey et al 2021, Law et al 2021, Madhusudhana et al 2021, Palacios et al 2021), including fish (Gannon 2008; Luczkovich et al 2008). However, despite the imperiled status of many North American fishes (Jelks et al 2008) and the need for monitoring programs (river herring: ASMFC 2012, Hare et al 2021), these methods have rarely been applied to fish species in this region.…”