Climate change may cause the extinction of the butterfly Lasiommata petropolitana in the Apennines

Abstract

Climate change represents a threat to narrow-ranged mountain species living in low-altitude massifs. We studied the disjunct Apennine population of Lasiommata petropolitana (Lepidoptera, Nymphalidae) in the Gran Sasso and Monti della Laga National Park. We quantified the altitudinal shifts undergone in the last decades (1964–2021) in the Alps and Apennines and estimated the local extinction risk due to climate change. We also sequenced the COI mitochondrial marker of seven Apennine specimens, comparing them with those available across the Palearctic. We projected the probability of presence for the species under a future climatic scenario using an ensemble forecasting approach. We found that, despite geographical isolation, the Apennine population of L. petropolitana displays a single widespread COI haplotype also occurring in most European populations. In the Alps and Apennines, this species has shifted uphill an average of 6.3 m per year since 1964. Accordingly, our model predicted a likely extinction in the Apennines by about 2060, due to a reduction of the climatic suitability in this region. Implications for insect conservation Implications for insect conservation Despite its potential loss in the Apennines would not erode mitochondrial diversity, L. petropolitana characterises the butterfly community of the Gran Sasso massif as an alpine enclave. The loss of the Apennine population, together with those of other orophilous butterflies, could trigger a homogenization of alpha and beta diversity and induce a loss of functional diversity in the impoverished high-altitude biotas. As habitat heterogeneity is a key aspect for populations to endure climate change, the maintenance of varied microhabitats, mainly through grazing management, could address the decline of this population.

Upward and Poleward (but Not Phenological) Shifts in a Forest Tenebrionid Beetle in Response to Global Change in a Mediterranean Area

“…Various studies have documented elevational range shifts in insects (especially butterflies) due to climate change [10,17,28,30,35,[50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60]. In accordance with these previous findings, A. velikensis showed an increase in the median elevation from the first to the second (1981-2022) period (as expected according to Prediction 1), whereas the elevational range of the species (0-1200 m) did not change between the two study periods.…”

“…Previous research on elevational shifts in insects produced variable results depending on the taxon, the study area, the considered period, and the methods used. For example, recorded velocities were up to ~22 m/year for butterflies [30] (although, in most cases, the velocities were of a few meters per year [10,17,35,[50][51][52]56,[58][59][60]205]); between 0.3 and 2.5 m/year for odonates [10,17]; 0.2-4.7 m/year for orthopterans [10,17]; 4-8 m/year for dung beetles [10]; and up to 0.5 m/year in ground beetles, 1.56 m/year in cerambycid beetles, 2.48 m/year in soldier beetles, and 1.3 in aquatic bugs [17]. Thus, the recorded velocity for the elevational shift observed in A. velikensis is within the range typically observed for other insects in a variety of contexts.…”

“…Although the impacts of climate change on species distributions may show considerable variation (including no or counterintuitive effects) [5][6][7][8][9][10][11], the most commonly documented patterns in response to increasing temperatures are range expansions/shifts upslope (i.e., to higher elevations) and poleward (i.e., to higher latitudes) [9,10,[12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30]. Species that cannot track their thermal niches through upslope and poleward movements because of their low dispersal capabilities or geographical constraints (e.g., species that are already on mountain tops cannot move further uphill), and that cannot adapt to the new climatic conditions, are subject to population decline and even local or global extinction if their environment becomes climatically unsuitable [30][31][32][33][34][35][36]. As seasonal activities such as breeding and flowering are profoundly influenced by climatic conditions, climate change also affects species phenology (i.e., the timing of seasonal events in their life cycles) [37,38].…”

“…There is an increasing amount of literature on the impact of climate change on insect distribution and phenology. Empirical evidence indicates that, with increasing temperatures, insects tend to track their climatic niche by moving upslope [10,17,28,30,35,[50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60] and poleward [17,50,[61][62][63][64][65][66][67][68][69][70][71]. Changes in phenology are also documented in many insects, with a shift toward earlier seasonal activity being the most commonly recorded pattern [38,49].…”

“…Changes in phenology are also documented in many insects, with a shift toward earlier seasonal activity being the most commonly recorded pattern [38,49]. However, current studies on insect responses to climate change suffer from many limits: (1) empirical studies have been progressively outweighed by predictive work [28,30,36,[72][73][74][75][76][77][78][79][80][81][82][83], which has led to a substantial scarcity of empirical data; (2) most work has been focused on a few, usually charismatic taxa such as butterflies and dragonflies [19,30,35,51,52,55,[59][60][61]65,66,68,71,73,84,85], while responses in most insect taxa remain unknown; (3) most research has been conducted in relatively few areas, with a strong preponderance of studies conducted in Europe, especially in central and northern countries [9,10,17,23,26,50,53,[59][60][61]68,…”