Climate Change May Imperil Tea Production in the Four Major Tea Producers According to Climate Prediction Models

Abstract

The threat of accelerating climate change on species distribution now and in the future is a topic of increasing research interest. However, little work has been undertaken to assess how shifting climates will affect the suitability of tea cultivation. Therefore, we used MaxEnt modelling to project the impact of current and future climatic scenarios on the potential distribution of tea across the four tea-producing countries of China, India, Kenya and Sri Lanka. Projections were made for the years 2050 and 2070 with three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using seven bioclimatic predictors under three global circulation models (GCMs). The current and future habitat suitability for tea predicted by the models produced a high accuracy rate, with high areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) for all tested RCPs under the three GCMs for the four countries. The mean true skill statistic (TSS) values for tea in Sri Lanka, Kenya, India and China were 0.80, 0.91, 0.91, and 0.74, respectively. The kappa values (k) of the current and future models for all four countries ranged from 0.40 to 0.75, which indicates that the overall performance of the model was good. The precipitation seasonality and annual precipitation were found to be the most influential variables in Sri Lanka and India, respectively, while annual mean temperature was the most effective contributor for determining the suitability of habitat for tea in Kenya and China. An important proviso is that some existing tea-growing areas will face reduced suitability for future tea cultivation suggesting that by 2050 there will be a drastic reduction in the optimal suitability by averages of 26.2%, 14%, and 4.7% in Kenya, Sri Lanka and China, respectively. The optimal suitability will be reduced by 15.1%, 28.6% and 2.6% in Kenya, Sri Lanka and China, respectively, by 2070. India displays an advantage in projected future climates as it gains optimal suitability areas of 15% by 2050 and 25% by 2070.

Regional disparities in impacts of climate extremes require targeted adaptation of Fairtrade supply chains

“…51,85 By focusing on climate extremes, we have shown that under the high-emission scenario, some of these areas (particularly Central America and Brazil) could experience considerably more and longer dry and hot periods, which coffee plants are particularly susceptible to. We identify similar high risks for tea producers as in other studies, 86,87 which also suggest a contraction of tea production areas particularly in Central and East Africa.…”

A review on the genome-based approaches for the development of stress and climate resilient tea crops

“…Prolonged drought, waterlogged conditions, and low temperature (less than 12°C and above 30°C) are not suitable for the growth of tea. The minimum annual rainfall of 1200 mm and 70-75% average relative humidity is suitable for the growth of tea plant (2).…”

Review of the application of in-situ sensing techniques to address the tea growth characteristics from leaf to field

“…It is vital to identify the optimal climate and soil to guarantee the suitable growth and harvesting of tea. Previous studies have employed various methodologies, including the Delphi method and GIS [100] , Sentinel-2 image data [81] , and integrating Sentinel-2 images with GIS [101] to evaluate tea plantation suitability. Factors considered for tea cultivation suitability include climate [102] , soil [103] , terrain, human-related factors, ecological economy factors, and tea plant growth information [104] .…”