Climate change mitigation potential of Louisiana's coastal area: Current estimates and future projections

Baustian, Melissa M.; Liu, Bingqing; Moss, Leland C.; Dausman, Alyssa; Pahl, James W.

doi:10.1002/eap.2847

Cited by 8 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 92 publications

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“…For example, recent studies based on modeled tidal datums predict that a 1.0–1.5 m mean global sea‐level rise will translate into hundreds of thousands of hectares of upland forests replaced by salt marshes across the conterminous United States within this century (Osland et al., 2022; Warnell et al., 2022). The resulting loss of wood production and stimulation of methane emissions contribute to a predicted net increase in the global warming potential of coastal ecosystems over large regions of the US coast (Baustian et al., 2023; Warnell et al., 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Upland forest retreat lags behind sea‐level rise in the mid‐Atlantic coast

Chen,

Kirwan

2023

Global Change Biology

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Ghost forests consisting of dead trees adjacent to marshes are striking indicators of climate change, and marsh migration into retreating coastal forests is a primary mechanism for marsh survival in the face of global sea‐level rise. Models of coastal transgression typically assume inundation of a static topography and instantaneous conversion of forest to marsh with rising seas. In contrast, here we use four decades of satellite observations to show that many low‐elevation forests along the US mid‐Atlantic coast have survived despite undergoing relative sea‐level rise rates (RSLRR) that are among the fastest on Earth. Lateral forest retreat rates were strongly mediated by topography and seawater salinity, but not directly explained by spatial variability in RSLRR, climate, or disturbance. The elevation of coastal tree lines shifted upslope at rates correlated with, but far less than, contemporary RSLRR. Together, these findings suggest a multi‐decadal lag between RSLRR and land conversion that implies coastal ecosystem resistance. Predictions based on instantaneous conversion of uplands to wetlands may therefore overestimate future land conversion in ways that challenge the timing of greenhouse gas fluxes and marsh creation, but also imply that the full effects of historical sea‐level rise have yet to be realized.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Upland forest retreat lags behind sea‐level rise in the mid‐Atlantic coast

Chen,

Kirwan

2023

Global Change Biology

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“…All units in the look-up table were converted into tonnes CO 2 e ha −1 y −1 with a standard error of the mean (SE). For other wetland habitats, the overall mean carbon fluxes were obtained from Baustian et al [85,86] (Supplementary Table S2).…”

Section: Carbon Balance Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the Potential Contribution of Submerged Aquatic Vegetation to Coastal Carbon Capture in a Delta System from Field and Landsat 8/9-Operational Land Imager (OLI) Data with Deep Convolutional Neural Network

Liu,

Sevick,

Jung

et al. 2023

Remote Sensing

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Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) are highly efficient at carbon sequestration and, despite their relatively small distribution globally, are recognized as a potentially valuable component of climate change mitigation. However, SAV mapping in tidal marshes presents a challenge due to optically complex constituents in the water. The emergence and advancement of deep learning-based techniques in the field of habitat mapping with remote sensing imagery provides an opportunity to address this challenge. In this study, an analytical framework was developed to quantify the carbon sequestration of SAV habitats in the Atchafalaya River Delta Estuary from field and remote sensing observations using deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) techniques. A U-Net-based model, Wetland-SAV Network, was trained to identify the SAV percent cover (high, medium, and low) as well as other estuarine habitat types from Landsat 8/9-OLI data. The areal extent of SAV was up to 8% of the total area (47,000 ha). The habitat areas and habitat-specific carbon fluxes were then used to quantify the net greenhouse gas (GHG) flux of the study area for with/without SAV scenarios in a carbon balance model. The total net GHG flux was in the range of −0.13 ± 0.06 to −0.86 ± 0.37 × 105 tonne CO2e y−1 and increased up to 40% (−0.23 ± 0.10 to −0.90 ± 0.39 × 105 tonne CO2e y−1) when SAV was accounted for within the calculation. At the hectare scale, the inclusion of SAV resulted in an increase of ~60% for the net GHG sink in shallow areas adjacent to the emergent marsh where SAV was abundant. This is the first attempt at remotely mapping SAV in coastal Louisiana as well as a first quantification of net GHG flux at the scale of hectares to thousands of hectares, accounting for SAV within these sub-tropical coastal delta marshes. Remote sensing and deep learning models have high potential for mapping and monitoring SAV in turbid sub-tropical coastal deltas as a component of the increasing accuracy of net GHG flux estimates at small (hectare) and large (coastal basin) scales.

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Salt Marsh Habitats and Diamondback Terrapins in a Rapidly Changing Climate: A Review

Lamont,

Osland,

Baustian

2024

Estuaries and Coasts

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The impacts associated with global climate change (e.g., sea-level rise, tropical storms, and warming temperatures) are expected to alter predator–prey interactions, foundation species, and plant community structure in coastal ecosystems. While the complex dynamics of these habitats have been examined under future climate predictions, few ecosystem models incorporate influences from fauna, such as the diamondback terrapin, the only estuarine turtle native to North America. This review examines the impacts of climate change on diamondback terrapins (Malaclemys terrapin) and the role that terrapins play as higher trophic level predators and keystone species in driving the dynamics of these ecosystems. We also review the potential implications of changes to terrapin populations on coastal ecosystems as a conservation challenge and suggest solutions to advance our understanding of those complex systems. Because of their role as a keystone and area-sensitive species that helps maintain healthy coastal habitats by foraging on herbivorous periwinkle snails, alterations to terrapin life history from climate change are expected, which could have significant impacts to the conservation of coastal habitats. Life history alterations could occur due to individual stressors, such as warming temperatures altering terrapin sex ratios. However, because of the complexity of these coastal systems, these stressors could also act additively or synergistically. Inclusion of faunal taxa such as the diamondback terrapin in modeling efforts examining climate change impacts to coastal ecosystems would better represent the complexity of these habitats thereby providing a more comprehensive evaluation of the entire ecosystem, resulting in more effective conservation strategies.

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Climate change mitigation potential of Louisiana's coastal area: Current estimates and future projections

Cited by 8 publications

References 92 publications

Upland forest retreat lags behind sea‐level rise in the mid‐Atlantic coast

Upland forest retreat lags behind sea‐level rise in the mid‐Atlantic coast

Quantifying the Potential Contribution of Submerged Aquatic Vegetation to Coastal Carbon Capture in a Delta System from Field and Landsat 8/9-Operational Land Imager (OLI) Data with Deep Convolutional Neural Network

Salt Marsh Habitats and Diamondback Terrapins in a Rapidly Changing Climate: A Review

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