Climate change modifies risk of global biodiversity loss due to land-cover change

Mantyka‐Pringle, Chrystal; Visconti, Piero; Marco, Moreno Di; Martin, Tara G.; Rondinini, Carlo; Rhodes, Jonathan R.

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2015.04.016

Cited by 240 publications

(156 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…In Europe, large mammals are predicted to lose 10 to 25% of their habitat by 2050 [20], while land-use change is expected to result in an 18% loss of land globally for carnivores by 2040 [21]. Climate change interacts with land-use change and can increase the impacts of land-use change on mammals [22].…”

Section: Range Shiftsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards a mechanistic understanding of the responses of large terrestrial mammals to heat and aridity associated with climate change

Fuller

Mitchell

Maloney

et al. 2016

Clim Chang Responses

149

127

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In the face of climate change, the life history traits of large terrestrial mammals will prevent them from adapting genetically at a sufficient pace to keep track with changing environments, and habitat fragmentation will preclude them from shifting their distribution range. Predicting how habitat-bound large mammals will respond to environmental change requires measurement of their sensitivity and exposure to changes in the environment, as well as the extent to which phenotypic plasticity can buffer them against the changes. Behavioural modifications, such as a shift to nocturnal foraging or selection of a cool microclimate, may buffer free-living mammals against thermal and water stress, but may carry a cost, for example by reducing foraging time or increasing predation risk. Large mammals also use physiological responses to buffer themselves against changing environments, but those buffers may be compromised by a changing physical environment. A decrease in the available food energy or water leads to a trade-off in which the precision of homeothermy is relaxed, resulting in large daily fluctuations in body temperature. Understanding how large mammals prioritise competing homeostatic systems in changing environments, and the consequences of that prioritisation for their fitness, requires long-term monitoring of identifiable individual animals in their natural habitat. Although body size predicts general ecological and energetic patterns of terrestrial mammals, high intraspecific and interspecific variability means that a species-directed approach is required to accurately model responses of large mammals to climate change.

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Section: Range Shiftsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards a mechanistic understanding of the responses of large terrestrial mammals to heat and aridity associated with climate change

Fuller

Mitchell

Maloney

et al. 2016

Clim Chang Responses

149

127

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Extinction risks will often be accentuated by the interaction with habitat loss and fragmentation, hunting and other factors (208,209).…”

Section: Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Oil palm and biodiversity: a situation analysis by the IUCN Oil Palm Task Force

2018

103

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“…Climate change and natural habitat destruction from land use are leading factors in decreasing terrestrial biodiversity [3][4][5][6]. Studies that integrate climate change and land use are necessary for understanding the manner of biodiversity decline, and for understanding of how future climate and land use will affect species distributions at national scales [7][8][9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating climate change and land use impacts to explore forest conservation policy

Choe¹,

Thorne²

2017

Preprint

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A scenario-based approach to the impacts of land use and climate change can help in identifying future policy directions. This study models the impacts of different land use and climate change scenarios on the forest ecosystems of South Korea to identify national-scale forest policy options. Climatically suitable forest areas for 1,031 climate vulnerable plant species were identified for current time and for 2050. We calculated change in species richness under four climate projections. We built forest conversion models and created four 2050 forest scenarios: (1) forest loss continues at current rates; (2) similar loss, but with conservation in areas with suitable future climates; (3) a reduction of loss by 50%; and (4) a combination of preservation and overall reduction of loss by 50%. We then crossed the forest conversion models with the climate-driven change in species richness, and categorized current forest areas into four classes to offer forest policy alternatives. By deploying the scenarios which preserve climatically suitable forests, the average species richness where forests converting to other land uses reduced significantly. We suggest conserving forests with suitable climates for biodiversity conservation and the establishment of forest plantations targeted to areas where species richness will decline based on our results.

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Climate change modifies risk of global biodiversity loss due to land-cover change

Cited by 240 publications

References 48 publications

Towards a mechanistic understanding of the responses of large terrestrial mammals to heat and aridity associated with climate change

Towards a mechanistic understanding of the responses of large terrestrial mammals to heat and aridity associated with climate change

Oil palm and biodiversity: a situation analysis by the IUCN Oil Palm Task Force

Integrating climate change and land use impacts to explore forest conservation policy

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