Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

Sippel, Sebastian; Meinshausen, Nicolai; Fischer, Erich M.; Székely, Enikő; Knutti, Reto

doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0666-7

Cited by 214 publications

(174 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…In the short-term all points on the globe could individually experience cooling or no warming, although in a probabilistic sense they are much more likely to warm. While every grid point can still cool in the future, Sippel et al (2020) have recently demonstrated that climate change is still detectable in the pattern of global temperature anomalies at any given day. We find that even on the mid-term time-scale a large proportion of the globe could by chance still not experience a warming trend due to internal variability, although this result is somewhat model dependent.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the role of internal variability in the temperature we expect to observe in the coming decades

Maher

Lehner

Marotzke

2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

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On short (15-year) to mid-term (30-year) time-scales how the Earth's surface temperature evolves can be dominated by internal variability as demonstrated by the global-warming pause or 'hiatus' . In this study, we use six single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) to visualise the role of internal variability in controlling possible observable surface temperature trends in the short-term and mid-term projections from 2019 onwards. We confirm that in the short-term, surface temperature trend projections are dominated by internal variability, with little influence of structural model differences or warming pathway. Additionally we demonstrate that this result is independent of the model-dependent estimate of the magnitude of internal variability. Indeed, and perhaps counter intuitively, in all models a lack of warming, or even a cooling trend could be observed at all individual points on the globe, even under the largest greenhouse gas emissions. The near-equivalence of all six SMILEs and CMIP5 demonstrates the robustness of this result to the choice of models used. On the mid-term time-scale, we confirm that structural model differences and scenario uncertainties play a larger role in controlling surface temperature trend projections than they did on the shorter time-scale. In addition we show that whether internal variability still dominates, or whether model uncertainties and internal variability are a similar magnitude, depends on the estimate of internal variability, which differs between the SMILEs. Finally we show that even out to thirty years large parts of the globe (or most of the globe in MPI-GE and CMIP5) could still experience no-warming due to internal variability.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the role of internal variability in the temperature we expect to observe in the coming decades

Maher

Lehner

Marotzke

2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…According to climate models, an increase in extreme events like droughts is expected [115,116]. Climate change can now even be detected in single weather events [117]. This means that "exceptional" years with strong anomalies are expected to occur more often in the future.…”

Section: Discussion and Outlookmentioning

confidence: 99%

From Understanding to Sustainable Use of Peatlands: The WETSCAPES Approach

et al. 2020

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Of all terrestrial ecosystems, peatlands store carbon most effectively in long-term scales of millennia. However, many peatlands have been drained for peat extraction or agricultural use. This converts peatlands from sinks to sources of carbon, causing approx. 5% of the anthropogenic greenhouse effect and additional negative effects on other ecosystem services. Rewetting peatlands can mitigate climate change and may be combined with management in the form of paludiculture. Rewetted peatlands, however, do not equal their pristine ancestors and their ecological functioning is not understood. This holds true especially for groundwater-fed fens. Their functioning results from manifold interactions and can only be understood following an integrative approach of many relevant fields of science, which we merge in the interdisciplinary project WETSCAPES. Here, we address interactions among water transport and chemistry, primary production, peat formation, matter transformation and transport, microbial community, and greenhouse gas exchange using state of the art methods. We record data on six study sites spread across three common fen types (Alder forest, percolation fen, and coastal fen), each in drained and rewetted states. First results revealed that indicators reflecting more long-term effects like vegetation and soil chemistry showed a stronger differentiation between drained and rewetted states than variables with a more immediate reaction to environmental change, like greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Variations in microbial community composition explained differences in soil chemical data as well as vegetation composition and GHG exchange. We show the importance of developing an integrative understanding of managed fen peatlands and their ecosystem functioning.

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“…Under the ongoing climate crisis, the increase in extreme events like droughts (in contrast to flooding events these typically last longer and may, therefore, have a stronger influence on biogeochemical cycling and ecosystem functioning) is expected [112,113]. Climate change can now even be detected in single weather events [114]. This means that "exceptional" years with strong anomalies are expected to occur more often in the future.…”

Section: Discussion and Outlookmentioning

confidence: 99%

From Understanding to Sustainable Use of Peatlands: The WETSCAPES Approach

Jurasinski¹,

Ahmad²,

Anadon‐Rosell³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Of all terrestrial ecosystems, peatlands store carbon most effectively. However, many peatlands have been drained for peat extraction or agricultural use. This converts peatlands from sinks to sources of carbon, causing approx. 5% of the anthropogenic greenhouse effect and additional negative effects on other ecosystem services. Rewetting peatlands can mitigate the climate crisis and may be combined with management in the form of paludiculture. Rewetted peatlands, however, do not equal their pristine ancestors and their ecological functioning is not understood. This holds especially for fens. Their functioning results from complex interactions and can only be understood following an integrative approach of many relevant fields of science, which we develop in the interdisciplinary project WETSCAPES. Here, we introduce our approach in which we are addressing interactions among water transport and chemistry, primary production, peat formation, matter transformation and transport, microorganisms and greenhouse gas exchange using state of the art methods in the relevant research fields. We record data on six study sites spreading across three important fen types (Alder forest, percolation fen, and coastal fen) each in drained and rewetted state. Using exemplary results, we show the importance of developing an integrative understanding of managed fen peatlands and their ecosystem functioning.

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Climate change now detectable from any single day of weather at global scale

Cited by 214 publications

References 42 publications

Quantifying the role of internal variability in the temperature we expect to observe in the coming decades

Quantifying the role of internal variability in the temperature we expect to observe in the coming decades

From Understanding to Sustainable Use of Peatlands: The WETSCAPES Approach

From Understanding to Sustainable Use of Peatlands: The WETSCAPES Approach

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