Climate-change potential effects on the hydrological regime of freshwater springs in the Italian Northern Apennines

Cervi, Federico; Petronici, Francesca; Castellarin, Attilio; Marcaccio, Marco; Bertolini, Alfio; Borgatti, Lisa

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.231

Cited by 22 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…M. Pesce, et al Ecological Engineering 133 (2019) 121-136 rivers in the future will be taken on an extreme level, with increase in the winter-rainy period and decrease in summer-dry period (Cervi et al, 2018;Pandey et al, 2019;Radchenko et al, 2017). RCP4.5 scenarios, both in mid-and late-century periods, feature a greater uncertainty compared to RCP8.5.…”

Section: Hydrological Responses To Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing uncertainty of hydrological and ecological parameters originating from the application of an ensemble of ten global-regional climate model projections in a coastal ecosystem of the lagoon of Venice, Italy

Pesce

Critto

Torresan

et al. 2019

Ecological Engineering

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A B S T R A C TWith increasing evidences of climate change affecting coastal waters, there is a strong need to understand future climate conditions and assess the potential responses of delicate coastal ecosystems. Results of climate change studies based on only one GCM-RCM combination should be interpreted with caution as results are highly dependent on the assumptions of the selected combination. In this study we examined the uncertainty in the hydrological and ecological parameters of the Zero river basin (ZRB) -Palude di Cona (PDC) coastal aquatic ecosystem generated by the adoption of an ensemble of climate projections from ten different combinations of General Circulation Model (GCM) -Regional Climate Model (RCM) under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) implemented in the hydrological model (SWAT) and the ecological model (AQUATOX). The baseline period of 1983-2012 was used to identify climate change variations in two future periods: mid-century (2041-2070) and late-century (2071-2100) periods. SWAT outputs from the ensemble indicate a summer reduction in inorganic nitrogen loadings of 1-22% and a winter increase of 1-19%. Inorganic phosphorus loadings indicate a yearly increase of 32-61%. AQUATOX outputs from the ensemble show major changes in the summer period, with an increase in Chl-a concentration of 9-56%, a decrease in diatoms of 74-98% and an increase in cyanobacteria of 421-3590%. Obtained results confirm that the use of multiple GCM-RCM projections can provide a more robust assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology and ecology of coastal waters, but at the same time highlight the large uncertainty of climate change-related impact studies, which can affect the decision-making processes regarding the management and preservation of sensitive aquatic ecosystems such as those in coastal areas.

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Section: Hydrological Responses To Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing uncertainty of hydrological and ecological parameters originating from the application of an ensemble of ten global-regional climate model projections in a coastal ecosystem of the lagoon of Venice, Italy

Pesce

Critto

Torresan

et al. 2019

Ecological Engineering

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“…With the raising awareness of climate change, a number of local and regional studies have assessed the potential impacts of climate change on hydrological drought in recent years (e.g., Cervi et al, 2018;Hellwig and Stahl, 2018;Nerantzaki et al, 2019;Rudd et al, 2019;Van Tiel et al, 2018). Despite the high detail and insight on local processes these studies provide, their limited spatial coverage and the use of different drought indicators, models and scenarios complicates the understanding of large-scale patterns of changes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diverging hydrological drought traits over Europe with global warming

Cammalleri¹,

Naumann²,

Mentaschi³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Climate change is anticipated to alter the demand and supply of water at the earth's surface. Since many societal impacts from a lack of water happen under drought conditions, it is important to understand how droughts may develop with climate change. This study shows how hydrological droughts will change across Europe with increasing global warming levels (GWL of 1.5, 2 and 3 K above preindustrial temperature). We employ a low-flow index derived from river discharge simulations of a spatially-distributed physically-based hydrological and water use model, which was forced with a large ensemble of regional climate model projections under a high emissions (RCP8.5) and moderate mitigation (RCP4.5) pathway. Different traits of drought, including severity, duration and frequency, were investigated. The projected changes in these treats identify four main sub-regions in Europe that are characterized by somehow homogeneous and distinct behaviours with a clear southwest/northeast contrast. The Mediterranean and Boreal sub-regions of Europe show strong, but opposite, changes at all three GWLs, with the former area mostly interested by stronger droughts (with larger differences at 3 K) while the latter sees a reduction in droughts. In the Atlantic and Continental sub-regions the changes are less marked and characterized by a larger uncertainty, especially at the 1.5 and 2 K GWLs. Combining the projections in drought hazard with population and agricultural information shows that with 3 K global warming an additional 11 million people and 4.5 million ha of agricultural land will be exposed to droughts every year, on average. These are mostly located in the Mediterranean and Atlantic regions of Europe.

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“…ese exploit the porous aquifers of the alluvial plain of the river Po, which are in turn fed by the runoff dispersion from the stream beds [12][13][14]. As evidenced in [15], the reduction in runoff into the river network induces negative changes to the recharge of these porous aquifers; the latter can be therefore affected by reduction in water availability in the mountainous areas [16].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As a consequence, the Emilia-Romagna region experienced has several droughts that have caused serious water management issues, as in the case of 2003, 2006/2007, and 2017 [16], when water for human consumption was rationed and wells incremented their flow rates to satisfy the agricultural water demand.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High Resolution of Water Availability for Emilia-Romagna Region over 1961–2015

Cervi

Nistor²

2018

Advances in Meteorology

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In this study, monthly time series of precipitations and temperatures from 1024 controlled and homogeneous meteorological stations located in the Emilia-Romagna region (northern Italy) are processed in order to assess potential climate changes that occurred during the period 1961–2015. Normal period as baseline between 1961 and 1990 (1990s) and recent period between 1991 and 2015 (2010s) were adopted in this study to analyse the possible effect of climate change on water availability during long-term period. Based on monthly and annual temperature (TT), precipitation (PP), and potential (ET0), the actual evapotranspiration (AET0) and water availability (WA) were computed at high spatial resolution. Between the two analysed periods, during the 2010s, it was found an increase in the maximum mean annual temperature by 1.08°C while the maximum mean annual precipitation saw a slight decrease (from 2222 mm to 2086 mm). The precipitation decrease is more intense in the South and West sectors of area (8%) and mainly depends on negative changes taking place during the winter and the beginning of spring (from December to March). The maximum mean annual ET0 and AET0 reached values of 663 mm and 565 mm during the 1990s, while during the 2010s, the found values were 668 mm and 572 mm, respectively. Because of the decrease in precipitation and increase in the ET0 and AET0, the WA (the proportion of precipitation that is available at the soil surface for subsequent infiltration and runoff processes) shows a reduction (about 10–20%) in the whole region, with exception of the North-East part of the Emilia-Romagna region. The decrease in the mean annual water availability induces severe issues concerning the water resources management across the whole Emilia-Romagna region.

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Climate-change potential effects on the hydrological regime of freshwater springs in the Italian Northern Apennines

Cited by 22 publications

References 56 publications

Assessing uncertainty of hydrological and ecological parameters originating from the application of an ensemble of ten global-regional climate model projections in a coastal ecosystem of the lagoon of Venice, Italy

Assessing uncertainty of hydrological and ecological parameters originating from the application of an ensemble of ten global-regional climate model projections in a coastal ecosystem of the lagoon of Venice, Italy

Diverging hydrological drought traits over Europe with global warming

High Resolution of Water Availability for Emilia-Romagna Region over 1961–2015

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