Climate Change Projection in the Twenty-First Century Simulated by NIMS-KMA CMIP6 Model Based on New GHGs Concentration Pathways

Sung, Hyun Min; Kim, Jisun; Shim, Sungbo; Seo, Jeongbyn; Kwon, Sang-Hoon; Sun, Min-Ah; Moon, Hye-Jin; Lee, Jaehee; Lim, Young Chang; Boo, Kyung‐On; Kim, Youngmi; Lee, Johan; Lee, Jiwoo; Kim, Jun-su; Marzin, Charline; Byun, Young‐Hwa

doi:10.1007/s13143-021-00225-6

Cited by 22 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Fig 6 shows the spatial distribution of future EASM under 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0°C GWLs. Although the periods of 1.5 and 2°C projected warming are not far from the present period (Section 2.3), a general increase in summer precipitation appears over the EA domain ( Fig 6 ), which is consistent with previous findings [ 41 , 42 ]. The prominent increase is mainly located in the low latitudes (~25°N) covering southeast China and the western North Pacific and the high latitudes (~40°N) covering northeast China and the Korean Peninsula ( Fig 6D–6F ).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 92%

Present-day and future projection of East Asian summer monsoon in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 simulations

et al. 2022

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The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is an influential monsoon system that provides two-thirds of the annual precipitation in the Asian region. Therefore, considerable attention has been paid to the changes in future climate. Thus far, studies on EASM characteristics have not been conducted considering specific global warming level (GWL) using Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) simulations. We analyze the EASM characteristics in present-day (PD) and the changes in EASM corresponding to the projections at 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0°C GWLs. The newly released 30 CMIP6 models effectively captured the migration of the monsoon in PD with a pattern correlation coefficient of 0.91, which is an improvement over that reported in previous studies. As a result of the separate analysis of the P1 (first primary peak; 33–41 pentad) and P2 (from P1 to the withdrawal; 42–50 pentad) periods, a higher frequency of weak to moderate precipitation in P2 and a smaller amount of moderate to extreme precipitation in P1 are mainly occurred. The CMIP6 models project increasing precipitation of approximately 5.7%°C−1, 4.0%°C−1, and 3.9%°C−1 for the three GWLs, respectively, with longer durations (earlier onset and delayed termination). Under the three GWLs, the projected precipitation frequency decreases below 6 mm d−1 (76th percentile) and significant increases above 29 mm d−1 (97th percentile). These changes in precipitation frequency are associated with an increasing distribution of precipitation amount above 97th percentile. Additionally, these tendencies in P1 and P2 are similar to that of the total period, while the maximum changes occur in 3.0°C GWL. In particular, future changes in EASM accelerate with continuous warming and are mainly affected by enhanced extreme precipitation (above 97th percentile). Our findings are expected to provide information for the implementation of sustainable water management programs as a part of national climate policy.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 92%

Present-day and future projection of East Asian summer monsoon in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 simulations

et al. 2022

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“…Thus, global warming above 1.5 • C may result in the crossing of a threshold for Arctic sea ice. Related evidence from previous studies suggests that summer sea ice in the Arctic will disappear after the first half of the 21st century because of rapid temperature increases [26,54].…”

Section: Drivers and Their Impactsmentioning

confidence: 67%

“…The uncertainties associated with the ensemble do not vary significantly among the emission scenarios [7,26]. Thus, warming in the Arctic region, which is approximately two-fold higher than the global average [26,54], leads to a sea-ice melting process with large uncertainty. Additionally, the model response uncertainty increases for stronger responses, which is expected to result in high climate sensitivity [55].…”

Section: Future Periodmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea Level Rise Drivers and Projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under the Paris Climate Targets: Global and around the Korea Peninsula

Sung

Kim

Shim

et al. 2021

JMSE

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Estimating future sea level rise (SLR) projections is important for assessing coastal risks and planning of climate-resilient infrastructure. Therefore, in this study, we estimated the future projections of SLR from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models for three climate targets (1.5 °C (T15), 2.0 °C (T20), and 3.0 °C (T30)) described by the Paris Agreement. The global SLR projections are 60, 140, and 320 mm for T15, T20, and T30, respectively, relative to the present-day levels. Similarly, around the Korean Peninsula, SLR projections become more intense with continuous global warming (20 mm (T15), 110 mm (T20), and 270 mm (T30)). Ocean variables show a slow response to climate change. Therefore, we developed the Emergence of Climate Change (EoC) index for determining the time when the variable is not following the present climate trend. The EoC of SLR appears after the EoC of sea-ice melting near the time of T15 warming. Moreover, the EoC of thermal expansion appears around the 2040s, which is similar to the time of the maximum of the T15 warming period and the median of the T20 warming period. Overall, our analysis suggests that the T15 warming may act as a trigger and SLR will accelerate after the T15 warming.

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“…We employ three ensemble members of the historical (years 1850-2014) and the SSP5-8.5 scenario (years 2015-2100) simulations of the K-ACE. Both simulations are conducted following the experimental design of the CMIP6 (O'Neill et al 2016), which is described in detail by Sung et al (2021). To diagnose the HC, monthly fields of meridional wind, surface pressure, and precipitation rate are analyzed.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The key difference between the K-ACE and the UK Earth System Model is the ocean component model and the representation of aerosols, among many others. Sung et al (2021) documented the performance of the K-ACE for climate mean states (e.g., surface temperature, precipitation, and sea ice extent) and climate variability (e.g., Northern and Southern Annular Modes) in the present and future climate. However, it has not been reported whether the HC is reasonably represented in the model or how it is projected to the changes under the future scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hadley Circulation in the Present and Future Climate Simulations of the K-ACE Model

Hur

Kim

Kwak

et al. 2021

Asia-Pac J Atmos Sci

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Hadley circulation (HC) is a planetary-scale overturning circulation in the tropics that transports momentum, heat, and moisture poleward. In this study, we evaluate the strength and extent of the HC in the historical and future climate simulations of the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA) Advanced Community Earth system model (K-ACE), which was recently developed by the National Institute of Meteorological Sciences of Korea. Compared with a reanalysis product, the overall structure of the HC is reasonably reproduced by the K-ACE. At the same time, it is also found that the Northern Hemisphere HC in the K-ACE is shifted southward by a few degrees, while the strength of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) HC is under-represented by approximately 20%. These biases in the strength and extent of the HC can be explained by biases in the eddy momentum flux and precipitation in the tropics. In the future climate simulations under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, the HCs in the K-ACE show a weakening and widening trend in both hemispheres, which is consistent with the projections of many Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models. A notable feature of the K-ACE is the widening of the SH HC, which takes place at a rate that is about double the multi-model mean. Climate models that share the component models with the K-ACE, such as UKESM, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, and ACCESS-CM2/ESM1, also show enhanced poleward expansion of the HC in the SH. This strong expansion is shown to be dominated by the expansion of the regional HC over the Pacific.

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Climate Change Projection in the Twenty-First Century Simulated by NIMS-KMA CMIP6 Model Based on New GHGs Concentration Pathways

Cited by 22 publications

References 29 publications

Present-day and future projection of East Asian summer monsoon in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 simulations

Present-day and future projection of East Asian summer monsoon in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 simulations

Sea Level Rise Drivers and Projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under the Paris Climate Targets: Global and around the Korea Peninsula

Hadley Circulation in the Present and Future Climate Simulations of the K-ACE Model

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