Climate change projections for chilling and heat forcing conditions in European vineyards and olive orchards: a multi-model assessment

Abstract

Air temperatures play a major role on temperate fruit development, and the projected future warming may thereby bring additional threats. The present study aims at analyzing the impacts of climate change on chilling and heat forcing on European vineyards and olive (V&O) orchards. Chilling portions (CP) and growing degree hours (GDH) were computed yearly for the recent past (1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005) and the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future scenarios (2021-2080), using several regional-global climate models, also considering model uncertainties and biases. Additionally, minimum CP and GDH values found in 90% of all years were also computed. These metrics were then extracted to the current location of V&O in Europe, and CP-GDH delimitations were assessed. For recent past, high CP values are found in north-central European regions, while lower values tend to exist on opposite sides of Europe. Regarding forcing, southern European regions currently show the highest GDH values. Future projections point to an increased warming, particularly under RCP8.5 and for 2041 onwards. A lower/higher CP is projected for south-western/eastern Europe, while most of Europe is projected to have higher GDH. Northern-central European V&O orchards should still have future CP-GDH similar to present values, while most of southern European orchards are expected to have much lower CP and higher GDH, especially under RCP8.5. These changes may bring limitations to some of the world most important V&O producers, such as Spain, Italy and Portugal. The planning of suitable adaptation measures against these threats is critical for the future sustainability of the European V&O sectors.

Changes in thermal resources and limitations for Georgian viticulture

“…Current research on climate change effects on viticulture in Europe shows: an increase of temperature and the consequent increase of indices that express the thermal resources, such as GDDs, Winkler Index, Huglin Index or other similar indices (Duchêne and Schneider , Orlandini et al , Tomasi et al , Santos et al , Irimia et al , Koch and Oehl , Di Lena et al , Fraga et al ); the shortening of phenological cycles and the advance of phenological timing (Duchêne and Schneider , Tomasi et al , Kartschall et al , Meier et al , Di Lena et al , Fraga et al ); the increase of high temperature stress with negative effects on the quality of production in the warmer areas (Fraga et al ); and substantial stability of frequency of spring frosts with a potential increase in their negative effects due to the early budburst (Kartschall et al , Bucur and Babeş , Meier et al ). …”

“…Fraga et al () analysed the impacts of climate change on chilling and heat forcing on European vineyards for the recent past (1989–2005) and in the future (2021–2080), pointing out future potential limitations for southern Europe due to the excess of high temperature and the decrease of chilling. Kartschall et al () analysed past climate (from 1901) and future climate scenarios in Germany, focusing on phenology and frost risk.…”

Climate change impact on a wine‐producing region using a dynamical downscaling approach: Climate parameters, bioclimatic indices and extreme indices

“…Coupling of climate simulations with dynamic crop models capable to simulate grapevine growth while integrating plant phenotype, soil profiles, weather data, CO 2 effects, and management options, has been applied at the European scale (Fraga et al, 2016). Other studies such as those of Santos et al (2018) and Fraga et al (2019) consider bioclimatic indices that incorporate nonlinear plant-temperature relationships (e.g., chilling portions or growing degree hours). Whereas these methods have great potential to provide more physiologically consistent results, their application in viticulture is still relatively scarce, and there is still a considerable need to validate calibration data, assumptions and results concerning Portuguese grapevine varieties and their growing conditions.…”

“…() and Fraga et al . () consider bioclimatic indices that incorporate non‐linear plant‐temperature relationships (e.g., chilling portions or growing degree hours). Whereas these methods have great potential to provide more physiologically consistent results, their application in viticulture is still relatively scarce, and there is still a considerable need to validate calibration data, assumptions and results concerning Portuguese grapevine varieties and their growing conditions.…”

Viticulture and Winemaking under Climate Change

“…Climate is an important forcing factor on grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) physiological development [2], vegetative growth [3], phenology [4], production, and consequently on wine quality. Climatic factors also determine the geographical location of vineyards [5], and the variability in the weather parameters, such as air temperatures, precipitation, and solar radiation, leads to annual changes in productivity [6,7]. Weather extremes are also known to have detrimental impacts on grapevine productivity and quality, namely hail, late frost spells, and excessive rainfall [8].…”