Climate change projections for the Worldwide Bioclimatic Classification System in the Iberian Peninsula until 2070

Andrade, Cristina; Contente, Joana

doi:10.1002/joc.6553

Cited by 16 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…The heterogeneity of the spatial patterns in the future, under both RCPs, also suggests changes in the large-scale patterns of daily precipitation in IP that were already identified in the past [60]. Furthermore, the upward trend in the dry events is projected to be strengthened in future climates, which is also in agreement with previous studies with related impacts on droughts [61], bioclimatic conditions [62], or climate classification [21,63]. Since droughts have deep impacts on water resources, agriculture, and the environment, this is particularly relevant.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Climate Change Projections of Dry and Wet Events in Iberia Based on the WASP-Index

Andrade¹,

Contente²,

Santos³

2021

Preprint

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The WASP-Index is computed over Iberia for three monthly timescales in 1961-2020, based on an observational gridded precipitation dataset (E-OBS), and in 2021-2070, based on bias-corrected precipitation generated by a six-member climate model ensemble from EURO-CORDEX, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The WASP performance in identifying extremely dry or wet events, reported by the EM-DAT disaster database, is assessed for 1961–2020. An overall good agreement between the WASP spatial patterns and the EM-DAT records is found. The areolar mean values revealed an upward trend in the frequency of occurrence of intermediate-to-severe dry events over Iberia, which will be strengthened in the future, particularly for the 12m-WASP intermediate dry events under RCP8.5. Besides, the number of 3m-WASP intermediate-to-severe wet events is projected to increase, mostly the severest events under RCP4.5, but no evidence was found for an increase in the number of more persistent (12m-WASP) wet events under both RCPs. Despite important spatial heterogeneities, an increase(decrease) of the intensity, duration, and frequency of occurrence of the 12m-WASP intermediate-to-severe dry(wet) events is found under both scenarios, mainly in the southernmost regions of Iberia, thus becoming more exposed to prolonged and severe droughts in the future, corroborating the results from previous studies.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Climate Change Projections of Dry and Wet Events in Iberia Based on the WASP-Index

Andrade¹,

Contente²,

Santos³

2021

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…However, four additional ombrothermic indices are also computed: the ombrothermic index of the hottest month of the summer quarter (Ios1), the ombrothermic index of the hottest two months of the summer quarter (Ios2), the ombrothermic index of the summer quarter (Ios3) and the ombrothermic index of the 4 months resulting from adding the summer quarter and the month immediately preceding it (Ios4). Further details can be found in Rivas-Martínez et al [23,24], while a summary of the main equations can be found in Andrade and Contente [11]. In this Table, CI is the continentality index, TI is the thermicity index and TIc is the compensated thermicity index, Tp is the annual positive temperature (tenths of °C), when the mean monthly temperature is higher than 0°C.…”

Section: Worldwide Bioclimatic Classification System (Wbcs)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate change has already deeply impacted biodiversity, ecosystems, and agroforestry systems [9][10][11]. Global warming and changes in the precipitation patterns are fostering an increase in arid/dry regions, and ultimately the expansion of desertic areas.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are Land Use Options in Viticulture and Oliviculture in Agreement with Bioclimatic Shifts in Portugal?

Andrade¹,

Fonseca²,

Santos³

2021

Preprint

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Land and climate are strongly connected through multiple interface processes and climate change may lead to significant changes in land use. In this study, high-resolution observational gridded datasets are used to assess modifications in the Köppen-Geiger and Worldwide Bioclimatic (WBCS) Classification Systems, from 1950‒1979 to 1990‒2019 in Portugal. A compound Bioclimatic-Shift Exposure Index (BSEI) is also defined to identify the most exposed regions to recent climatic changes. The temporal evolution of land cover with vineyards and olive groves between 1990 and 2018, as well as correlations with areas with bioclimatic shifts, are analyzed. Results show an increase (decrease) of CSa Warm Mediterranean climate with hot summer (CSb, warm summer) of 18.1% (‒17.8%). The WBCS Temperate areas also reveal a decrease of ‒5.11%. Arid and semi-arid ombrotypes areas increased, conversely to humid to sub-humid ombrotypes. Thermotypic horizons depict a shift towards warmer classes. BSEI highlights the most significant shifts in northwestern Portugal. Vineyards have been displaced towards regions that are either the coolest/humid, in the northwest, or the warmest/driest, in the south. For oliviculture, the general trend for a relative shift towards cool/humid areas suggests an attempt of the sector to adapt, despite the cover area growth in the south. As vineyards and olive groves in southern Portugal are commonly irrigated, options for the intensification of these crops in this region may threaten the already scarce water resources and challenge the future sustainability of these sectors.

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“…Climate change has already deeply impacted biodiversity, ecosystems, and agroforestry systems [9][10][11]. Global warming and changes in the precipitation patterns are and between 1990-2018 are presented.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are Land Use Options in Viticulture and Oliviculture in Agreement with Bioclimatic Shifts in Portugal?

Andrade

Fonseca

Santos

2021

Land

Self Cite

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Land and climate are strongly connected through multiple interface processes and climate change may lead to significant changes in land use. In this study, high-resolution observational gridded datasets are used to assess modifications in the Köppen–Geiger and Worldwide Bioclimatic (WBCS) Classification Systems, from 1950–1979 to 1990–2019 in Portugal. A compound bioclimatic-shift exposure index (BSEI) is also defined to identify the most exposed regions to recent climatic changes. The temporal evolution of land cover with vineyards and olive groves between 1990 and 2018, as well as correlations with areas with bioclimatic shifts, are analyzed. Results show an increase of CSa Warm Mediterranean climate with hot summer of 18.1%, followed by a decrease in CSb (warm summer) climate of −17.8%. The WBCS Temperate areas also reveal a decrease of −5.11%. Arid and semi-arid ombrotypes areas increased, conversely humid to sub-humid ombrotypes decreased. Thermotypic horizons depict a shift towards warmer classes. BSEI highlights the most significant shifts in northwestern Portugal. Vineyards have been displaced towards regions that are either the coolest/humid, in the northwest, or the warmest/driest, in the south. For oliviculture, the general trend for a relative shift towards cool/humid areas suggests an attempt of the sector to adapt, despite the cover area growth in the south. As vineyards and olive groves in southern Portugal are commonly irrigated, options for the intensification of these crops in this region may threaten the already scarce water resources and challenge the future sustainability of these sectors.

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Climate change projections for the Worldwide Bioclimatic Classification System in the Iberian Peninsula until 2070

Cited by 16 publications

References 64 publications

Climate Change Projections of Dry and Wet Events in Iberia Based on the WASP-Index

Climate Change Projections of Dry and Wet Events in Iberia Based on the WASP-Index

Are Land Use Options in Viticulture and Oliviculture in Agreement with Bioclimatic Shifts in Portugal?

Are Land Use Options in Viticulture and Oliviculture in Agreement with Bioclimatic Shifts in Portugal?

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