Climate change regional review: Russia

Sharmina, Maria; Anderson, Kevin; Bows‐Larkin, Alice

doi:10.1002/wcc.236

Cited by 17 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 24 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The warming of permafrost in Russia has the potential to influence global climate change because the thawing of frozen soil releases soil organic carbon [83]. At longer timescales in the past, Russia's winter became warmer, and the greenhouse gas effect has been considered as an important factor for this warming [84]. Based on the results of the AIRS CO 2 data, CO 2 continues to increase globally.…”

Section: Potential Climatic Variables Associated With Lst Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Land Surface Temperature Change (2003–2017) and Its Relationship with Climate Drivers: AIRS, MODIS, and ERA5-Land Based Analysis

2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Land surface temperature (LST) plays a critical role in the water cycle and energy balance at global and regional scales. Large-scale LST estimates can be obtained from satellite observations and reanalysis data. In this study, we first investigate the long-term changes of LST during 2003–2017 on a per-pixel basis using three different datasets derived from (i) the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) onboard Aqua satellite, (ii) the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) also aboard Aqua, and (iii) the recently released ERA5-Land reanalysis data. It was found that the spatio-temporal patterns of these data agree very well. All three products globally showed an uptrend in the annual average LST during 2003–2017 but with considerable spatial variations. The strongest increase was found over the region north of 45° N, particularly over Asian Russia, whereas a slight decrease was observed over Australia. The regression analysis indicated that precipitation (P), incoming surface solar radiation (SW↓), and incoming surface longwave radiation (LW↓) can together explain the inter-annual LST variations over most regions, except over tropical forests, where the inter-annual LST variation is low. Spatially, the LST changes during 2003–2017 over the region north of 45° N were mainly influenced by LW↓, while P and SW↓ played a more important role over other regions. A detailed look at Asian Russia and the Amazon rainforest at a monthly time scale showed that warming in Asian Russia is dominated by LST increases in February–April, which are closely related with the simultaneously increasing LW↓ and clouds. Over the southern Amazon, the most apparent LST increase is found in the dry season (August–September), primarily affected by decreasing P. In addition, increasing SW↓ associated with decreasing atmospheric aerosols was another factor found to cause LST increases. This study shows a high level of consistency among LST trends derived from satellite and reanalysis products, thus providing more robust characteristics of the spatio-temporal LST changes during 2003–2017. Furthermore, the major climatic drivers of LST changes during 2003–2017 were identified over different regions, which might help us predict the LST in response to changing climate in the future.

show abstract

Section: Potential Climatic Variables Associated With Lst Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Land Surface Temperature Change (2003–2017) and Its Relationship with Climate Drivers: AIRS, MODIS, and ERA5-Land Based Analysis

2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…With continuing and accelerating climate change, there is a risk that the boreal forest may even cross a tipping point and shift to an alternative state (Chapin et al, 2005;Lenton et al, 2008;Scheffer et al, 2012). Other prospective impacts of future climate change on forest ecosystems in Russia, as documented in Russian-language literature, have been reviewed by Sharmina et al (2013). They found that the key anticipated impacts are potential shifts of vegetation zones, more frequent and intensive wildfires, and increased plant productivity through CO 2 fertilization.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tamm Review: Observed and projected climate change impacts on Russia’s forests and its carbon balance

Schaphoff

Reyer

Schepaschenko

et al. 2016

Forest Ecology and Management

110

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

a b s t r a c tRussia's boreal forests provide numerous important ecosystem functions and services, but they are being increasingly affected by climate change. This review presents an overview of observed and potential future climate change impacts on those forests with an emphasis on their aggregate carbon balance and processes driving changes therein. We summarize recent findings highlighting that radiation increases, temperature-driven longer growing seasons and increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations generally enhance vegetation productivity, while heat waves and droughts tend to decrease it. Estimates of major carbon fluxes such as net biome production agree that the Russian forests as a whole currently act as a carbon sink, but these estimates differ in terms of the magnitude of the sink due to different methods and time periods used. Moreover, models project substantial distributional shifts of forest biomes, but they may overestimate the extent to which the boreal forest will shift poleward as past migration rates have been slow. While other impacts of current climate change are already substantial, and projected impacts could be both large-scale and disastrous, the likelihood for a tipping point behavior of Russia's boreal forest is still unquantified. Other substantial research gaps include the large-scale effect of (climate-driven) disturbances such as fires and insect outbreaks, which are expected to increase in the future. We conclude that the impacts of climate change on Russia's boreal forest are often superimposed by other environmental and societal changes in a complex way, and the interaction of these developments could exacerbate both existing and projected future challenges. Hence, development of adaptation and mitigation strategies for Russia's forests is strongly advised.

show abstract

“…Similarly, Russia has repeatedly reaffirmed its commitment to 2 C in subsequent international agreements, including the Group of Eight Camp David Declaration in 2012 [19]. In the absence of ambitious domestic mitigation policies [20] and for the purpose of this paper, the Russian government's commitment to this quantitative framing of climate change is taken at face value and in good faith.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 91%

Russia's cumulative carbon budgets for a global 2°C target

2015

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Russia is the fifth highest emitter of carbon dioxide, having been in the top five for at least six decades. However, thus far no in-depth study has estimated Russia's cumulative emissions in the context of the global 2 C constraint. This is despite the IPCC reiterating the importance of cumulative emissions. Translating the global 2 C temperature commitment into a meaningful national context, this paper derives and evaluates 2 C-compatible carbon budgets for Russia, based on a range of apportionments. The work contributes to the debate by providing a deeper analysis of the principles of allocating carbon emissions to Russia. This analysis demonstrates how, if Russia is to make a fair contribution to global emission reductions in line with 2 C, its 2011À2100 cumulative emissions should stay within 20-26 Gt CO 2 , commensurate with a 37À52% probability of exceeding 2 C. If Russia continues to emit carbon dioxide at current annual levels, this budget will be "spent" by the mid-2020s. The carbon budget estimated here for Russia appears technically feasible, if extremely challenging. Despite continuing to assert itself as a fossil fuel superpower, Russia has a wealth of opportunities for full and early decarbonization, including the potential to become a net exporter of renewable energy.

show abstract

Climate change regional review: Russia

Cited by 17 publications

References 24 publications

Global Land Surface Temperature Change (2003–2017) and Its Relationship with Climate Drivers: AIRS, MODIS, and ERA5-Land Based Analysis

Global Land Surface Temperature Change (2003–2017) and Its Relationship with Climate Drivers: AIRS, MODIS, and ERA5-Land Based Analysis

Tamm Review: Observed and projected climate change impacts on Russia’s forests and its carbon balance

Russia's cumulative carbon budgets for a global 2°C target

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About