Climate change-related risks and adaptation potential in Central and South America during the 21st century

Abstract

Climate-related risks in Central and South America have received increased attention and concern in science and policy, but an up-to-date comprehensive review and synthesis of risks and adaptation potential is currently missing. For this paper we evaluated over 200 peer-reviewed articles and grey literature documents published since 2012. We found that climate change in Central and South America during the 21st century may increase the risk to severe levels for the following topical risk clusters: 1. Food insecurity; 2. Floods and landslides; 3. Water scarcity; 4. Epidemics of vector-borne diseases; 5. Amazon Forest biome shift; 6. Coral bleaching; 7. Coastal risks of sea level rise, storm surges and erosion; 8. Systemic failure due to cascading impacts of hazards and epidemics. Our synthesis also identified feasible adaptation measures for each risk. The impacts of the risks will be heterogeneous throughout the region, with rural communities, Indigenous peoples, Afro-Latin Americans, women, disabled people, and migrants identified as being the most severely affected. We refer to a number of adaptation options for each risk. However, unabated climate change together with low adaptive capacity will strictly limit adaptation options. Immediate strengthening of policies for building adaptive capacity and increase of research on the risk-adaptation nexus in Central and South America are paramount. Our findings might contribute to guide the adjustment and emphasis of adaptation policies and climate risk management strategies from local to national level.

Biodiversity Research in Central America: A Regional Comparison in Scientific Production Using Bibliometrics and Democracy Indicators

“…Further studies and systematic reviews of climate change-related risks for the region have identified contingencies associated with food insecurity, floods and landslides, water scarcity, epidemics, coral bleaching, tropical storms, erosion, and sea-level rise until 2070 (Hagen et al, 2022 ). These effects have been perceptible in the last years through natural and social phenomena, like hurricanes Eta and Iota that affected more than 7 million people and caused almost $7 billion (AON, 2020 ) in damage.…”

“…The main cause is disaster displacement, human populations living in fragile ecosystems affected by floods or droughts or/and living in conflict-affected areas with hostile/violent groups like “maras” gangs or drug trafficking. The most affected populations are rural communities, indigenous people, Afro-Latin Central Americans, women, LGBTQIA+ and migrants (Magrin et al, 2014 ; Hagen et al, 2022 ).…”

“…sea-level rise until 2070 (Hagen et al, 2022). These effects have been perceptible in the last years through natural and social phenomena, like hurricanes Eta and Iota that affected more than 7 million people and caused almost $7 billion (AON, 2020) in damage.…”

“…Over the last decades, this territory and its populations have been deeply affected by many tropical storms, hurricanes and other natural phenomena that evidentiate the region's vulnerability to climate change (Magrin et al, 2014 ; Hagen et al, 2022 ). This has been partially due to the lack of proper legislation that addresses forest coverage, biodiversity conservation, infrastructure and territorial ordering.…”

Indigenous perceptions and adaptive responses to the impacts of climate variability in the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta, Colombia

“…Though increased climate variability and extremes have already driven acute food insecurity and reduced water security for millions of people, the combination of loss of food production, limited access to food, and reduced diet diversity has increased malnutrition among Indigenous Peoples, small farmers, and poor households (Pörtner et al, 2022). Indeed, Central and South America is one of the regions wherein these groups will be most severely affected (Hagen et al, 2022).…”