Climate Change Risk Evaluation of Tsunami Hazards in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

Yavuz, Cuneyt; Kentel, Elçin; Aral, Mustafa M.

doi:10.3390/w12102881

Cited by 13 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…These newly created shallow-water areas contribute to amplifying the incoming tsunami waves. Our results agree with several investigations regarding the impact of climate change, particularly the Sea Level Rise, in the tsunami hazard assessment (Yavuz et al 2020;Sepúlveda et al 2021;Tursina et al 2021) (Gamboa et al 2021b(Gamboa et al , 2022. This database reveals that mass wasting events are more frequent than previously thought and that these events can vary in size from small to large, occurring across a wide distribution.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Tsunami hazard induced by an Early Holocene landslide in the Tagus delta off Lisbon (Portugal)

Ramalho,

Omira,

Terrinha

2024

Preprint

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Submarine landslides are a major source of tsunamis, with waves highly dependent of the properties of both the landslide and the marine domain. This study investigates the tsunamigenesis of a shallow-water submarine landslide, recently mapped at the mouth of the Tagus delta River, off Lisbon, Portugal. The Tagus delta landslide is estimated to be 8 ky old, with a depositional maximum thickness of ~ 20 m and a volume of approximately 0.27 km3, extending over more than 9 km in length and 3 km in width. We assess the tsunamigenic potential and hazard of this possible early Holocene landslide using numerical simulations over high resolution reconstructed paleo-bathymetry, and project a similar future landslide scenario under the present-day conditions. Results show that both paleo- and future landslide scenarios are tsunamigenic, posing a significant tsunami hazard to the nearest coasts of Lisbon and surrounding areas. At the source region, the formed tsunami reached heights of 0.8 m (paleo-scenario) and 1.45 m (future-scenario), increasing to approximately 2 m (both scenarios) as it propagated towards Lisbon’s coastline. This study is a first attempt to address the tsunamigenic potential of a submarine landslide occurring in a shallow water environment of the Portuguese margin domain. The results reinforce the need to include these small, but frequent, events and their induced tsunamis in marine geo-hazard assessments of the region.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Tsunami hazard induced by an Early Holocene landslide in the Tagus delta off Lisbon (Portugal)

Ramalho,

Omira,

Terrinha

2024

Preprint

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“…Although progress has been made in investigating the effects of sea-level rise on the intensification of tsunami hazards, 13,26,27 few studies have extended impact assessments of sea-level rise to the life-cycle risk context. Yavuz et al 28 performed a socioeconomic risk assessment of two coastal regions in the eastern Mediterranean subjected to tsunamis and sea-level rise. Nevertheless, the risk assessment was performed assuming that the earthquake occurred at a particular time.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Life‐cycle risk assessment of building portfolios subjected to tsunamis under non‐stationary sea‐level rise based on a compound renewal process

Alhamid

Akiyama

Aoki

et al. 2023

Earthq Engng Struct Dyn

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The immense impacts of tsunamis can inflict substantial damage on coastal infrastructure systems during their lifetime and lead to considerable economic loss. However, with the increasing intensity and variability of sea‐level rise due to climate change, evaluations of the life‐cycle tsunami risk associated with cumulative loss have become increasingly complex since tsunami hazards are time‐dependent. In addition, the number of earthquake events and the corresponding arrival times are substantially uncertain. Therefore, an accurate life‐cycle tsunami risk assessment methodology should be established to appropriately develop disaster mitigation measures. This paper provides a novel life‐cycle risk assessment of building portfolios subjected to tsunami hazards under non‐stationary sea‐level rise effects due to climate change. The cumulative loss of a building portfolio is evaluated through a compound renewal process based on earthquake interarrival time uncertainties and time‐dependent risk. The earthquake interarrival times are modeled using a non‐Poisson process based on historical data. Tsunami hazard curves that consider the effects of sea‐level rise, estimated based on climate models, are obtained with tsunami propagation analysis. The time‐variant annual risk is estimated based on reliability and building unit loss. Finally, a numerical procedure is proposed to estimate the life‐cycle tsunami risk of building portfolios. An illustrative example is provided by applying the framework to several municipalities in the Kochi Prefecture of Japan to assess the effects of climate change on the life‐cycle tsunami risk.

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“…Multi-hazard assessment of floods with different natural hazards can be found in the literature. For instance, climatechange-related flood hazard assessment has been widely in- vestigated (Blöschl et al, 2017;Skougaard Kaspersen et al, 2017;Szewrański et al, 2018;Carter et al, 2018;Barkey et al, 2019;Yavuz et. al., 2020b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-hazard analysis of flood and tsunamis on the western Mediterranean coast of Turkey

Yavuz

Yılmaz²,

Onder³

2022

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Flooding has always been a devastating hazard for social and economic assets and activities. Especially, lowland areas such as coastal regions can be more vulnerable to inundations. The combination of different natural hazards observed at the same time is definitely worsening the situation in the affected regions. The goal of this study is to conduct a distinctive multi-hazard analysis considering flood hazards with the contribution of potential earthquake-triggered tsunamis that might be observed throughout the Fethiye coastline and city center. For this purpose, tsunami hazard curves are generated based on Monte Carlo simulations. Comprehensive stochastic hazard analyses are performed considering the aleatory variability of earthquake-triggered tsunamis and epistemic uncertainty of floods having 10-, 50-, and 100-year return periods. Numerical simulations are conducted to combine the potential tsunamis and flood events that are able to adversely affect the selected region. The results of this study show that the blockage of stream outlets due to tsunami waves drastically increases the inundated areas and worsens the condition for the selected region.

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Climate Change Risk Evaluation of Tsunami Hazards in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

Cited by 13 publications

References 36 publications

Tsunami hazard induced by an Early Holocene landslide in the Tagus delta off Lisbon (Portugal)

Tsunami hazard induced by an Early Holocene landslide in the Tagus delta off Lisbon (Portugal)

Life‐cycle risk assessment of building portfolios subjected to tsunamis under non‐stationary sea‐level rise based on a compound renewal process

Multi-hazard analysis of flood and tsunamis on the western Mediterranean coast of Turkey

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Climate Change Risk Evaluation of Tsunami Hazards in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

Cited by 13 publications

References 36 publications

­­Tsunami hazard induced by an Early Holocene landslide in the Tagus delta off Lisbon (Portugal)

­­Tsunami hazard induced by an Early Holocene landslide in the Tagus delta off Lisbon (Portugal)

Life‐cycle risk assessment of building portfolios subjected to tsunamis under non‐stationary sea‐level rise based on a compound renewal process

Multi-hazard analysis of flood and tsunamis on the western Mediterranean coast of Turkey

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Tsunami hazard induced by an Early Holocene landslide in the Tagus delta off Lisbon (Portugal)

Tsunami hazard induced by an Early Holocene landslide in the Tagus delta off Lisbon (Portugal)