Climate Change Scenarios and Effects on Snow-Melt Runoff

Abstract

Climate change is an important environmental issue, as progression of melting glaciers and snow cover is sensitive to climate alteration. The aim of this research was to model climate alterations forecasts, and to assess potential changes in snow cover and snow-melt runoff under the different climate change scenarios in the case study of the Zayandeh-rud River Basin. Three cluster models for climate change (NorESM1-M, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CSIRO-MK3.6.0) were applied under RCP 8.5, 4.5 and 2.6 scenarios, to examine climate influences on precipitation and temperature in the basin. Temperature and precipitation were determined for all three scenarios for four periods of 2021-2030, 2031-2040, 2041-2050 and 2051-2060. MODIS (MOD10A1) was also applied to examine snow cover using temperature and precipitation data. The relationship between snow-covered area, temperature and precipitation was used to forecast future snow cover. For modeling future snow melt runoff, a hydrologic model of SRM was used including input data of precipitation, temperature and snow cover. The results indicated that all three RCP scenarios lead to an increase in temperature, and reduction in precipitation and snow cover. Investigation in snowmelt runoff throughout the observation period (November 1970 to May 2006) showed that most of annual runoff is derived from snow melting. Maximum snowmelt runoff is generated in winter. The share of melt water in the autumn and spring runoff is estimated at 35 and 53%, respectively. The results of this study can assist water manager in making better decisions for future water supply.

Aerosols optical depth and Ångström exponent over different regions in Garhwal Himalaya, India

“…The high concentration of aerosol particles in the environment (indoor as well as outdoor) leads to decreasing visibility in the atmosphere (Yang et al, 2016 ), and it also mediates various adverse health effects (Cohen et al, 2017 ; Mulenga & Siziya, 2019 ) and is observed during the COVID-19 pandemic (Anchordoqui et al, 2020 ) as well. Their impact on precipitation products, climate change, and snowmelt runoff (Javadinejad et al, 2020 ; Thanh, 2019 ) in particular in the Himalayan region needs careful monitoring. Based on such standpoints, ambient particulate matter has been the focus of public concern because of its potential risks for several diseases, such as lung cancer, respiratory infections, and cardiovascular diseases (Brunekreef & Holgate., 2002 ; Dominici et al, 2006 ; Gakidou et al, 2017 ).…”

Investigation of the effect of climate change on heat waves

“…Heat waves are the most important atmospheric disasters, and the annual mortality rate from climatic hazards shows that thermal waves cause the highest mortality rates compared to other climatic events [15][16][17] . Reducing the consequences of heat waves depends on identifying thermal waves, their predictions, discovering ways to reduce their effects on general health and identifying areas that are vulnerable to heat waves [18][19][20][21] . So today, one of the most important concerns about climate hazards is the occurrence of heat waves that affect human societies extensively [22][23][24][25] .…”

Evaluation of hydro-meteorological drought indices for characterizing historical and future droughts and their impact on groundwater

“…There are several studies about drought indices, like Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), Comprehensive Meteorological Drought Index (CMDI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and so on. [23][24][25][26][27] The choice of indices is mainly related to research purposes (e.g., drought defence and reservoir process, water supply organization, ecosystem organization and wetlands). In this research, three drought indices, SPI, SRI, and GRI, were used for drought defense and help water managers make proper planning during drought conditions.…”