Climate change signal of future climate projections for Aachen, Germany, in terms of temperature and precipitation

Buttstädt, Mareike; Schneider, Christoph

doi:10.1127/0941-2948/2014/0549

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…Furthermore, annual average precipitation will increase over the equatorial regions and decrease over the subtropical regions [12]. Another study that used multi-model ensemble of regional climate projections to estimate the climate change signal in terms of temperature and precipitation for the city of Aachen, Germany [13]. The results of the study reveal that rainfall is likely to decrease over the century and the examinations indicate longer and more frequent dry periods in the future.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigation of the Effect of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation: Capital Ankara Case

2022

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This study examines the potential impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation. Rainfall analysis with stationary and nonstationary approach for observed and future conditions is performed for (1950-2015 period) observed data of 5, 10, 15, 30 minutes and 1, 2, 3, 6 hour and projections (2015-2098 period) of 10, 15 minutes and 1, 6 hour for Ankara province, Turkey. Daily projections are disaggregated to finer scales, 5 minutes storm durations, then five minutes time series aggregated to the storm durations that are subject of interest. Nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) models and stationary GEV models for observed and future data are obtained. Nonstationary model results are in general exhibited smaller return level values with respect to stationary model results of each storm duration for observed data driven model results. Considering the projected data driven model results; on average nonstationary models produce mostly lower return levels for mid and longer return periods for all storm durations and return periods except one hour storm duration. Depending on the models and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), there are different results for the future extreme rainfall input; yet all results indicate a decreasing extreme trend.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigation of the Effect of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation: Capital Ankara Case

2022

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“…There are many studies analysing changes in precipitation in Germany (Hundecha and Bárdossy, ; Trömel and Schönwiese, ; Zolina et al, ; Han̈sel et al, ; Buttstädt and Schneider, ; Murawski et al, ; Schwarzak et al, ). Most of them focused on extreme precipitation in only certain parts of Germany, e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, Xue et al (2013) analysed trends of regional precipitation from 55 rain gauge stations in Weihe River Basin in China during 1961-2010. Guo et al (2016) analysed trends of regional precipitation from 51 rain gauge stations in Xinjiang Province, China during 1960-2012 There are many studies analysing changes in precipitation in Germany (Hundecha and Bárdossy, 2005;Trömel and Schönwiese, 2007;Zolina et al, 2008;Han sel et al, 2009;Buttstädt and Schneider, 2014;Murawski et al, 2015;Schwarzak et al, 2015). Most of them focused on extreme precipitation in only certain parts of Germany, e.g.…”

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confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal analysis of nonlinear trends in precipitation over Germany during 1951–2013 from multiple observation‐based gridded products

Duan

Chen

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Spatial and temporal patterns of trends in annual and seasonal precipitation over Germany during 1951-2013 were analysed using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method. Three widely used and recognized high-resolution observation-based gridded precipitation products, the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) time-series data, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis data and the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES derived data set (EOBS), were used and compared. Comparison among different products showed that the CRU used a considerably lower number of gauge stations (maximum 36) in the construction of gridded product over Germany and should be used with great caution for other applications, and overall CRU presented less precipitation and smaller inter-annual variability; GPCC and EOBS agreed well in the spatial and temporal distribution of seasonal and annual precipitation, as well as the identified trends. The spatiotemporal analysis of trends showed that trends in precipitation during 1951-2013 were, in most cases, highly nonlinear and varying over time. In particular, the spring, summer and autumn precipitation showed large variations in trends. Therefore, the assumption of linear trends on which previous studies were based is invalid. Annual precipitation showed increasing trends in over 66% of Germany (particularly northern and eastern Germany), and the magnitude of increasing trends were generally enhanced over time, e.g. GPCC showed that the average magnitude of increasing trends rose from 6.3% for the 1951-1980 period to 12% for the 1951-2013 period. There were considerable spatial and temporal variabilities in trends in seasonal precipitation totals over Germany. This study is among one of the first studies applying the EEMD method to a comprehensive analysis of time-varying trends in precipitation over Germany, which is expected to improve our understanding of the complex and nonlinear regional climate system.

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Modelling climate analogue regions for a central European city

Reuter,

Graf,

Goergen

et al. 2023

Climatic Change

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In this study, we describe a methodology to derive climate analogue cities for spatially highly resolved future climate scenarios. For the computation, a reduced and in hindsight bias-adjusted EURO-CORDEX EUR-11 dataset is used based on two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A total of 389 European cities are processed by the algorithm, which uses five statistical climate variables (2-m air temperature average and amplitude, precipitation sum and amplitude, correlation between 2-m air temperature average and precipitation sum). Additionally, extreme weather events (hot days, summer days, tropical nights, extreme precipitation events) are calculated for further comparison and validation. Finding an appropriate analogue permits a more accurate derivation and depiction of necessary climate adaptation efforts and therefore assist decision-making in city planning. As an example of our method, we searched for plausible climate twins for the mid-sized city of Aachen (Germany) at the end of the twenty-first century. Our results show that the French city of Dijon is highly likely to become Aachen’s climate twin by the end of the century for RCP4.5. As for the scenario RCP8.5, no clear European analogue city could be determined, indicating that the city might enter a novel climate. The nearest match suggests the cities of Florence and Prato in Tuscany. However, considering climate indices, the encompassing region of the French–Spanish city triangle Bordeaux–Toulouse–Bilbao is a better fit. The developed algorithm can be applied to any of the cities included in the dataset.

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Climate change signal of future climate projections for Aachen, Germany, in terms of temperature and precipitation

Cited by 4 publications

References 0 publications

Investigation of the Effect of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation: Capital Ankara Case

Investigation of the Effect of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation: Capital Ankara Case

Spatiotemporal analysis of nonlinear trends in precipitation over Germany during 1951–2013 from multiple observation‐based gridded products

Modelling climate analogue regions for a central European city

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