Climate change simulations revealed potentially drastic shifts in insect community structure and crop yields in China’s farmland

Li, Dexian; Li, Zixin; Liu, Zhiwei; Yang, Yujing; Khoso, Abdul Ghaffar; Wang, Li; Liu, Deguang

doi:10.1007/s10340-022-01479-3

Cited by 32 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 80 publications

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“…Global climate change can have significant impacts on various agricultural systems around the world 34 . In this context, plant virus diseases provide a major challenge to agriculture and food security worldwide.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Global climate change can have significant impacts on various agricultural systems around the world. 34 In this context, plant virus diseases provide a major challenge to agriculture and food security worldwide. Among plant viruses, potyviruses are the largest group of plant-infecting RNA viruses, causing substantial agricultural crop losses throughout the world.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Increasing risk of aphids spreading plant viruses in maize fields on both sides of China's Heihe‐Tengchong line under climate change

Wang

et al. 2022

Pest Management Science

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BACKGROUND: In the coming decades, geographical distribution patterns of farmland organisms may undergo drastic changes due to climate change, with significant implications for global food security. In China, Rhopalosiphum maidis and its spread of sugarcane mosaic virus (ScMV) can become an increasingly serious threat to maize (Zea mays) production. We conducted ecological niche modeling for Z. mays, R. maidis, and ScMV under current and future (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) climate scenarios by using MaxEnt software to explore changes in this system. RESULTS: The Heihe-Tengchong line (an imaginary separation line of human population density) can divide China into main (east of the line) and secondary (west of the line) habitats for the three species. With climate change, rapid expansion in suitable areas is projected for ScMV and the aphid vector R. maidis. Taking species interactions into consideration, our overlaying analyses show that most areas east of the Heihe-Tengchong line (optimal for maize and suitable for R. maidis) will become increasingly highly suitable for ScMV, suggesting that the prevention and control of this plant virus and its aphid vector in China's main maize-growing areas (e.g. northeast) will become an increasing challenge in the future.CONCLUSION: Climate change will profoundly affect ScMV-vector-maize interactions, which may contribute favorably to invasion of this virus into new areas. Our comprehensive and in-depth analyses on shifts in this multi-species system under climate change provide useful and insightful information for devising strategies for the prevention and control of plant viruses and aphid vectors on maize in the future.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increasing risk of aphids spreading plant viruses in maize fields on both sides of China's Heihe‐Tengchong line under climate change

Wang

et al. 2022

Pest Management Science

Self Cite

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“…To reduce the autocorrelation between the variable data, we used ArcGIS software to load all of the variable data and performed Pearson correlation analysis on variables via multivariate and band collection statistics in the software [ 33 ]. For the factor of phase coefficient |R| > 0.8 between variables, according to the contribution rate of each environmental variable to the MaxEnt model and the replacement important value, the variables with a larger contribution rate and replacement important value are preferred to participate in MaxEnt modeling and prediction, to avoid overfitting [ 34 ]. Therefore, we selected Bio1, Bio9, Bio14, Bio20, Bio21, Bio23, and Bio25 as the environmental variables of the A. glabripennis distribution model ( Table S1 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting Distribution of the Asian Longhorned Beetle, Anoplophora glabripennis (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) and Its Natural Enemies in China

Zhang

Wang

Lei

2022

Insects

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The Asian longhorned beetle, Anoplophora glabripennis, is a forestry pest found worldwide. A. glabripennis causes serious harm because of the lack of natural enemies in the invaded areas. Dastarcus helophoroides and Dendrocopos major are important natural enemies of A. glabripennis. MaxEnt was used to simulate the distribution of D. helophoroides and D. major in China, and their suitable areas were superimposed to pinpoint which regions are potentially appropriate to release or establish natural enemy populations under current and future conditions. The results showed that, with climate change, the suitable areas of D. helophoroides and D. major migrated northward; the centroid shift of A. glabripennis was greater than those of D. helophoroides and D. major. From current conditions to 2090, the suitable area of A. glabripennis, D. helophoroides, and D. major will increase by 1.44 × 104, 20.10 × 104, and 31.64 × 104 km2, respectively. Northern China (e.g., Xinjiang, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia), where A. glabripennis causes more serious damage, is also a potentially suitable area for D. helophoroides and D. major, and this provides a potential strategy for the management of A. glabripennis. Therefore, we suggest that natural enemies should be included in the model used for predicting suitable areas for invasive pests.

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“…Because multicollinearity among environmental variables can affect model outputs and result in an over-fitted model, Pearson’s correlation analysis was used to examine correlations among the environmental variables in ENMTools ( Sillero, 2011 ; Li et al, 2022 ). If the absolute value of the correlation coefficient between two environmental variables was greater than 0.7, the one with a lower percent contribution (according to a jackknife test) was removed ( Zeng et al, 2016 ; Farrell et al, 2019 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the distribution of suitable habitat of the poisonous weed Astragalus variabilis in China under current and future climate conditions

Huang

Du²,

Wen³

et al. 2022

Front. Plant Sci.

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Astragalus variabilis is a locoweed of northwest China that can seriously impede livestock development. However, it also plays various ecological roles, such as wind protection and sand fixation. Here, we used an optimized MaxEnt model to predict the distribution of suitable habitat of A. variabilis under current (1970–2000) conditions and future (2021–2080) climate change scenarios based on recent occurrence records. The most important environmental variables (suitability ranges in parentheses) affecting the distribution of A. variabilis were average maximum temperature of February (–2.12–5.34°C), followed by total precipitation of June (2.06–37.33 mm), and topsoil organic carbon (0.36–0.69%). The habitat suitability of A. variabilis was significantly correlated with the frequency of livestock poisoning (p < 0.05). Under current climate conditions, the suitable environment of A. variabilis was distributed in central and western Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, central and northwestern Gansu, central and northwestern Qinghai, and the four basins around the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang. Under future climate conditions, the suitable habitat of A. variabilis shifted to higher latitudes and altitudes. No previous studies have used niche models to predict the suitable environment of this species nor analyzed the relationship between the habitat suitability of poisonous plants and the frequency of animal poisoning. Our findings provide new insights that will aid the prevention of livestock animal poisoning and the control of poisonous plants, promote the development of the livestock husbandry industry, and provide basic information that will facilitate the maintenance of the ecological balance of grassland ecosystems.

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Climate change simulations revealed potentially drastic shifts in insect community structure and crop yields in China’s farmland

Cited by 32 publications

References 80 publications

Increasing risk of aphids spreading plant viruses in maize fields on both sides of China's Heihe‐Tengchong line under climate change

Increasing risk of aphids spreading plant viruses in maize fields on both sides of China's Heihe‐Tengchong line under climate change

Predicting Distribution of the Asian Longhorned Beetle, Anoplophora glabripennis (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) and Its Natural Enemies in China

Predicting the distribution of suitable habitat of the poisonous weed Astragalus variabilis in China under current and future climate conditions

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