Climate change, the politics of anticipation and future riskscapes in Africa

Müller‐Mahn, Detlef; Moure, Mar; Gebreyes, Million

doi:10.1093/cjres/rsaa013

Cited by 13 publications

(7 citation statements)

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“…To analyze smallholders' livelihood vulnerability to drought at a household level in upper Awash, this study is designed in a way that can address the above-mentioned research gaps. According to Singh et al [21], model-based vulnerability analysis can provide a long-term view of the physical aspects of macro-scale climate scenarios but fail to accurately interpret the human dimensions of microscale climate uncertainty and hazards [61]. Hence, this micro-scale (household-level) study of smallholder farmers' vulnerability to drought considered the human and natural dimensions of indicators through the integration of climate and household (HH) survey data to characterize a household's vulnerability to drought.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Smallholders’ Livelihood Vulnerability to Drought across Agroecology and Farm Typology in the Upper Awash Sub-Basin, Ethiopia

et al. 2021

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Background: Assessing the magnitude of smallholder farmers’ livelihood vulnerability to drought is an initial step in identifying the causal factors and proposing interventions that mitigate the impacts of drought. This study aimed to assess smallholders’ livelihood vulnerability to the drought in the upper Awash sub-basin, Ethiopia. Household (HH) and climate data were used for indicators related to sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity that define vulnerability to drought. The vulnerability of farmers’ livelihood to drought was compared among the studies agroecological zone (AEZ) and farm typologies. Results: The result illustrated a diverse magnitude of vulnerability index (VI) ranging from −1.956 to −4.253 for AEZ. The highest magnitude of VI was estimated for livelihood in the lowland AEZ, while the lowest magnitude of VI was estimated in midland AEZ. This could be accounted for by the fact that lowland farmers shown the highest exposure (0.432) and sensitivity (0.420) and the lowest adaptive capacity (0.288). A closer look at farmers’ livelihood typology, in each of the AEZ, showed substantial diversity of farmers’ livelihood vulnerability to drought, implying potential aggregations at AEZ. Accordingly, the vulnerability index for livestock and on-farm-income-based livelihood and marginal and off-farm-income-based livelihood typologies were higher than the intensive-irrigation-farming-based smallholders’ livelihood typology. Conclusions: Based on the result, we concluded that procedures for smallholders’ livelihood resilience-building efforts should better target AEZ to prioritize the focus region and farmers’ livelihood typology to tailor technologies to farms. Although the result emphasizes the importance of irrigation-based livelihood strategy, the overall enhancement of farmers adaptive capacity needs to focus on action areas such as reducing the sensitivity and exposure of the households, improving farmers usage of technologies, diversify farmers’ livelihood options, and, hence, long-term wealth accumulation to strengthen farmers’ adaptive capacity toward drought impacts.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Smallholders’ Livelihood Vulnerability to Drought across Agroecology and Farm Typology in the Upper Awash Sub-Basin, Ethiopia

et al. 2021

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“…To give an example, the Afar pastoralists in Ethiopia have a long experience of living with multiple risks, including highly variable rainfall, recurring droughts and famines, sudden outbursts of violent clashes and disruptions of trade connections and markets due to changing international relations between Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and Somalia (Müller-Mahn et al 2010). The overlapping livelihood challenges are today further enhanced by newly emerging uncertainties.…”

Section: Box 91 Four Areas Of Questioning To Explore the Position Of ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Politics of Uncertainty

Scoones¹,

Stirling²

2020

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This collection fills an important gap in our understanding of the role of uncertainty in the science-society nexus. It illustrates the growing awareness that, in this context, uncertainty is essentially a political concern to be addressed by better governance rather than a scientific problem to be solved by improved techniques. Scientific uncertainty will continue to be a challenge for contemporary societies as long as the legitimacy of policy decision-making and action is based on trust in science.Professor Silvio Funtowicz, Centre for the Study of the Sciences and the Humanities, University of Bergen; formerly EU Joint Research Centre, Ispra What should we do with uncertainty? Not abolish it with facts, this wide-ranging essay collection argues. Introduced by two of our most incisive analysts of alternative social futures, the book delves into today's most significant governance challenges and shows how uncertainty leads us to reimagine the politics of modernity. In these turbulent times, this is a book to read, savor and read again. Professor Sheila Jasanoff, Pforzheimer Professor of Science and Technology Studies at the Harvard Kennedy School The old world order is fading into history: what a new one will look like is currently uncertain. In fields as diverse as climate change, finance, urban futures, pandemics, mass migration and many more, the future looks less predictable and demands alternative approaches. This well-timed book lays out what they might be.

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“…The national climate change response is shaped by the legislative and regulatory context in which local government and the private sector engage with and respond to CCCI and risks, but local characteristics constrain the implementation of actions. Indeed, locally specific historical, environmental, social, cultural, and economic factors play a determining role in how the national response gets translated into physical and behavioural change affecting risks (Müller-Mahn et al, 2020). Moreover, the factors that configured locally specific exposure and vulnerability to CCCI also configure individual and collective perception of climaterelated impacts and risks and what responses may be considered (in)appropriate or (un)necessary.…”

Section: Research Focus and Contextmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For these participants, the dominant reorganisation vision falls short of addressing that gap which results in rising democratic tensions and contributes to the increasing polarisation of opinion within communities. Such tensions have been identified elsewhere and interpreted as a misalignment of narratives (Krauß & Bremer, 2020;Müller-Mahn et al, 2020); the high-level narrative fails to make sense locally. The misaligned riskscape narrative(s) 'coming from the top' not only lack democratic legitimacy but may also be based on a problematisation that is locally inaccurate or incomplete.…”

Section: Visions Of Adaptation To Cascading Impacts -Persisting Diver...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This means that multiple riskscapes necessarily co-exist, overlap, and potentially conflict at any one time, in any one place, creating zones of tensions that constitute barriers to planning and implementing effective 15 Transitional risks refer to risks (and opportunities) associated to the transition to a low carbon economy (Sanderson & Stridsland, 2022) 16 Based on the "works of the anthropologist Arjun Appadurai, the social theorist Theodore Schatzki and the human geographer Valerie November" (Müller-Mahn & Everts, 2013, p. 24). To be distinguished from the hazard risk analysis tool named RiskScape (GNS, n.d) responses to risks (Müller-Mahn et al, 2020;White & Lawrence, 2020). Müller-Mahn et al (2018) further explore "practices of future-making" as constitutive of riskscape: narratives that connect the past and the future into a coherent and compelling whole, making "tomorrow an object of today's activities" (2018, p. 208 , 2019).…”

Section: Adapting To Climate Change Cascading Impacts -Introducing 'R...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Understanding Climate Change Cascading Risks: Different Visions of the Future

Becdelievre

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The impacts from climate change flow-on and propagate across interconnected human and biophysical systems. These cascading impacts pose a unique and unprecedented challenge to decision-makers responsible for planning and implementing a climate change adaptation response in a timely manner. A growing body of theoretical and practical research on climate-related cascades is now available to support decision-making for adaptation. However, little is known about how local decisions-makers perceive cascading impacts and risks and how that shapes their adaptation response. In the context of Aotearoa New Zealand national climate change response, this case study investigates how considering impacts and risks from cascades shapes the adaptation response of local government and private sector actors in Te Tauihu-Nelson Tasman, a coastal region located in the northern parts of the South Island. Three research questions were asked: (1) how do actors from local government and private sector perceive and problematise cascading impacts and how that shapes their adaptation response? (2) What local climate change adaptation narratives emerge when these actors consider cascading impacts and risks? And (3) what are the similarities and differences between local, regional, and national adaptation narratives related to cascading impacts and risks? To answer these questions, seventeen participants from local government and the private sector took part in a workshop and semi-structured interviews. A riskscape narrative framework was used to make sense of how these participants perceived cascades and their implications, responded to the risks they pose and envisioned successful adaptation. Findings first indicated that understanding cascades and their implications requires a technical and formal engagement with the concept. Second, while local government actors located in Te Tauihu-Nelson Tasman understand that adaptation to cascading impacts is a challenge needing proactive attention – particularly in raising community awareness of those risks–, the local private sector has not yet turned their mind to this challenge. Third, two common but diverging visions of adaptation co-exist at different levels of governance, somewhat in opposition: a vision of reorganisation of governance and economic systems, and a vision of de-complexification of vulnerable systems underpinned by a paradigm shift. Notable implications of these findings are: (1) communicating risks from cascades to the public and the private sector needs to be accompanied by technical information to convey the significance of those risks and motivate adequate and effective responses, and (2) adaptation to cascading impacts is a whole-of-society project that requires alignment between all actors, so further research is needed to understand how these different visions can be reconciled.

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Climate change, the politics of anticipation and future riskscapes in Africa

Cited by 13 publications

References 61 publications

Analysis of Smallholders’ Livelihood Vulnerability to Drought across Agroecology and Farm Typology in the Upper Awash Sub-Basin, Ethiopia

Analysis of Smallholders’ Livelihood Vulnerability to Drought across Agroecology and Farm Typology in the Upper Awash Sub-Basin, Ethiopia

The Politics of Uncertainty

Understanding Climate Change Cascading Risks: Different Visions of the Future

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