Climate change, thermal anomalies and the recent progression of dengue in Brazil

Abstract

Dengue is rapidly expanding its transmission area across Brazil and much of South America. In this study, data-mining techniques were used to identify climatic and sociodemographic indicators that could explain this trend. The previous circulation of the virus, urbanization, and the occurrence of thermal anomalies for a prolonged period were the main factors that led to increased incidence of dengue in the central region of Brazil. Regions with high altitudes, which previously consisted of a barrier for dengue transmission, became areas of high incidence rates. The algorithm that was developed in this study can be utilized to assess future climate scenarios and plan preventive actions.