Climate change threatens the distribution of major woody species and ecosystem services provision in southern Africa

Kapuka, Alpo; Dobor, Laura; Hlásny, Tomáš

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158006

Cited by 7 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 118 publications

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“…Like many recent studies, our work indicates potential for major redistributions of native and exotic forest habitat in response to climate change (Dyderski et al, 2018; González‐Orozco et al, 2016; Kapuka et al, 2022; Pecchi et al, 2020). Such research is typically based on correlative SDMs that describe some elements of niche space, and the actual impact on species distributions will depend on additional natural and anthropogenic factors (Araújo & Peterson, 2012).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 83%

“…Unlike studies that predict some winners under climate change (Dyderski et al, 2018; Kapuka et al, 2022), the native species studied here were all predicted to see reductions in habitat suitability in 2070, except for N. truncata , which had a minor gain of habitat under emissions scenario SSP126, but a loss under SSP585. Some of the losses predicted were staggering, for example the almost 80,000 km 2 reduction in suitable habitat for N. solandri .…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 82%

“…Nothofagus forests in New Zealand have relatively low levels of natural disturbance such as fire (Perry et al, 2014; Wyse et al, 2018), so forest microclimates may potentially delay or prevent population losses under suboptimal conditions in some areas. However, evidence of tree decline associated with climate change is mounting globally (Carnicer et al, 2011; Davis et al, 2019; Goberville et al, 2016; Kapuka et al, 2022) and has been reported in South America Nothofagus forests (Tarabini et al, 2021). Stand dieback in New Zealand Nothofagus forests has been linked to drought (Hosking, 1993; Wardle & Allen, 1983), highlighting their vulnerability to acute climate stress.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Predictions of change in many forest systems are dire (González‐Orozco et al, 2016; Scheffer et al, 2001). However, other research indicates that some tree species will expand their range as the climate warms, and these ‘winners’ may be both native and/or alien invasive species (Dyderski et al, 2018; Etherington et al, 2022; Kapuka et al, 2022). Subsequently, a reshuffling of species compositions in forests is a likely outcome of climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Range reshuffling: Climate change, invasive species, and the case of Nothofagus forests in Aotearoa New Zealand

Mathias,

van Galen,

Jarvie

et al. 2023

Diversity and Distributions

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AimThe impact of climate change on forest biodiversity and ecosystem services will be partly determined by the relative fortunes of invasive and native forest trees under future conditions. Aotearoa New Zealand has high conservation value native forests and one of the world's worst invasive tree problems. We assess the relative effects of habitat redistribution on native Nothofagus and invasive conifer (Pinaceae) species in New Zealand as a case study on the compounding impacts of climate change and tree invasions.LocationAotearoa New Zealand.MethodsWe use species distribution models (SDMs) to predict the current and future distribution of habitat for five native Nothofagus species and 13 invasive conifer species under two 2070 climate scenarios. We calculate habitat loss/gain for all species and examine overlap between the invasive and native species now and in future.ResultsMost species will lose habitat overall. The native species saw large changes in the distribution of habitat with extensive losses in North Island and gains mostly in South Island. Concerningly, we found that most new habitat for Nothofagus was also suitable for at least one invasive species. However, there were refugia for the native species in the wetter parts of the climate space.Main ConclusionIf the predicted changes in habitat distribution translate to shifts in forest distribution, it would cause widespread ecological disruption. We discuss how acclimation, adaptation and biotic interactions may prevent/delay some changes. But we also highlight that the poor establishment capacity of Nothofagus, and the contrasting ability of the conifers to invade, will present persistent conservation challenges in areas of both new habitat and forest retreat. Pinaceae are problematic invaders globally, and our results highlight that control of invasions and active native forest restoration will likely be key to managing forest biodiversity under future climates.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 83%

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 82%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Range reshuffling: Climate change, invasive species, and the case of Nothofagus forests in Aotearoa New Zealand

Mathias,

van Galen,

Jarvie

et al. 2023

Diversity and Distributions

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“…Studies have predicted that climate change will continue to signi cantly in uence re behaviour and cause destruction to forest ecosystem services in Namibia (Kapuka et al, 2022;Keja-Kaereho et al, 2019;Nikodemus et al, 2022;Reid et al, 2007). This phenomenon has already started to manifest in most parts of the country (Kapuka and Hlásny, 2020), which is prone to forest res due to the dry conditions (Mwansa, 2018) Forest res play an essential role in the Namibian ecosystems and economies, and provide vital ecological functions (Sheuyange et al, 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unveiling the Impact of Climate Variability on Forest Fire Occurrence in Namibia: A Modelling Study

Nikodemus

Trubin

Bernal

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Background Forest fire is the primary disturbance affecting the structure and composition of many forest ecosystems worldwide. Forest fires caused severe destruction to forest ecosystems in Namibia (South West Africa) during the period of 2011–2021. The aim of this paper is to assess the impacts of climate variability on forest fire occurrence in Namibia. Results A total of 38.184 Mha of forests was burned during the study period. Forest fire occurrence fluctuated in response to changes in climate variability (temperature, precipitation, and wind speed). Using linear regression models, ranked according to the Akaike information criterion (AIC), we found a combination of average wind speed in the 3-month period of July, August, September, and average monthly wind speed in January, May July, and August, to be the most important drivers of forest fires. Conclusions Forest fire occurrences are highly concentrated in the north-eastern and north-central regions. Forest fire occurrence is not limited to climate variability. There is little scientific evidence about other factors influencing forest fire occurrence in Namibia, in addition to climate variability.

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Climate Change, Gendered Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Strategies: A Participatory Research in West Africa

Osman,

Ayanlade

2024

Climate Change and Regional Socio-Economic Systems in the Global South

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Climate change threatens the distribution of major woody species and ecosystem services provision in southern Africa

Cited by 7 publications

References 118 publications

Range reshuffling: Climate change, invasive species, and the case of Nothofagus forests in Aotearoa New Zealand

Range reshuffling: Climate change, invasive species, and the case of Nothofagus forests in Aotearoa New Zealand

Unveiling the Impact of Climate Variability on Forest Fire Occurrence in Namibia: A Modelling Study

Climate Change, Gendered Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Strategies: A Participatory Research in West Africa

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