Climate Change, Tipping Elements and Security

Rasmussen, Kjeld; Birk, Thomas

doi:10.1007/978-94-007-2430-3_4

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…For example, while we focus on a single global tipping element in the sense of Lenton et al (2008) in our analysis here, it is straightforward to add other types of regionally or sectorally specific non-linear dynamics and tipping elements (see O'Riordan and Lenton (2013) for an overview of key tipping elements) that may be biophysical (e.g. the Indian monsoon (Stolbova et al 2016), dieback of the Amazon and boreal forests (Lenton et al 2008, Rasmussen andBirk 2011), food systems (Benton et…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A modeling framework for World-Earth system resilience: exploring social inequality and Earth system tipping points

Anderies

Barfuß

Donges

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The Anthropocene is characterized by the strengthening of planetary-scale interactions between the biophysical Earth system and human societies. This increasing social-ecological entanglement poses new challenges for studying possible future World-Earth system trajectories and World-Earth resilience defined as the capacity of the system to absorb and regenerate from anthropogenic stresses such as greenhouse gas emissions and land-use changes. The World-Earth system is currently in a non-equilibrium transitional regime of the early Anthropocene with arguably no plausible possibilities of remaining in Holocene-like conditions while sheltering up to 10 billion humans without risk of undermining the resilience of the Earth system. We develop a framework within which to conceptualize World-Earth resilience to examine this risk. Because conventional ball-and-cup type notions of resilience are hampered by the rapid and open-ended social, cultural, economic and technological evolution of human societies, we focus on the notion of `pathway resilience', i.e. the relative number of paths that allow the World-Earth system to move from the currently occupied transitional states towards a safe and just operating space in the Anthropocene. We formalize this conceptualization mathematically and provide a foundation to explore how interactions between Earth system resilience (biophysical processes) and World system resilience (social processes) impact pathway resilience. Our analysis shows the critical importance of building Earth system resilience to reach a safe and just operating space. We also illustrate the importance of World system dynamics by showing how perceptions of fairness coupled with regional inequality affects pathway resilience. The framework provides a starting point for the analysis of World-Earth resilience that can be extended to more complex model settings as well as the development of quantitative planetary-scale resilience indicators to guide sustainable development in a stabilized Earth system.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A modeling framework for World-Earth system resilience: exploring social inequality and Earth system tipping points

Anderies

Barfuß

Donges

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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show abstract

“…At the same time, within the UN system, climate change is also increasingly referred to as a "threat multiplier." The UN Security Council's (UNSC) incorporation of climate change within its mandate is of particular concern as it plays a central role in securitizing climate change in the international security discourses (Rasmussen and Birk 2012).…”

Section: Climate Change As a Threat Multipliermentioning

confidence: 99%

Abolishing the War on Climate: Pathways for Collective Ecological Security

Yeltekin

Koli

Oros

2023

Perspect. Global Dev. Technol.

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The climate crisis has been increasingly approached by powerful global actors as both a national and international security threat, rather than a matter of ecological security. This article categorizes false solutions behind the climate security approach and presents three intersecting ways forward for climate justice. By highlighting the work of social movements, this article aims to center truly alternative systemic approaches rooted in decolonization, abolition, and ecological security seeking to demilitarize and abolish a War on Climate, while building alternative relationships that foster collective well-being for humans and non-humans.

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“…While many poorer countries have ratified the Doha Amendment, they have also added a disclaimer to the effect that such ratification does not imply that they no longer see the developed countries as responsible for the impacts that they may face. Finally, the fear that climate change may destabilize societies has led to increasing discussions about whether climate change is a security issue …”

Section: Stage 3: Triple‐loop Learning Needed (Beyond 2008)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change governance: history, future, and triple‐loop learning?

Gupta

2016

WIREs Climate Change

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The international climate change regime started out very constructively, but although there has been progress over the last 25 years, this progress falls short of what is needed to address the climate change problem. This paper presents the regime evolution in terms of the concept of single-, double-, and triple-loop learning, and its relationship with participatory processes and trust, emphasizing the more recent developments and prospects for the future. It argues that in the first stage of the regime, the problem was seen as structured (high scientific and normative consensus), defined as a technological problem and the focus was on improving the routines within the climate change negotiations. In the second stage, the problem was seen as moderately structured (with creeping doubts about the science and norms needed to deal with the problem) and defined as a political problem requiring double-loop learning that questioned the underlying assumptions. In the third stage, the problem is seen as unstructured (where climate skeptics help shape political discourses on climate science and there is breakdown in normative consensus), as the problem is seen more as an ideological, systemic one requiring complex triple-loop learning (unlearning, transformative learning) in the context of mutual distrust. The issue is whether in this stage we will be able to combine bottom-up initiatives with top-down legally binding goals, Northern and Southern perspectives, to create a global consensus on the need to restructure society such that the problem can once more be seen as structured and manageable.

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Climate Change, Tipping Elements and Security

Cited by 7 publications

References 13 publications

A modeling framework for World-Earth system resilience: exploring social inequality and Earth system tipping points

A modeling framework for World-Earth system resilience: exploring social inequality and Earth system tipping points

Abolishing the War on Climate: Pathways for Collective Ecological Security

Climate change governance: history, future, and triple‐loop learning?

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