Climate change, wheat productivity and water use in the North China Plain: A new super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection

Tao, Fulu; Zhang, Zhao

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.10.003

Cited by 146 publications

(85 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…Increased [CO2] in field crops has led to decreases in WU of 3 to 8%, and an increase in Y of 8 to 31% (Hatfield et al, 2011; Kimball et al, 2002; Long et al, 2006; Manderscheid and Weigel, 2007;Tao and Zhang, 2013 and 38% (Hatfield et al, 2011; Kimball et al, 2002; Long et al, 2006; Manderscheid and Weigel, 2007;Tao and Zhang, 2013; Wang et al, 2013). The results of this study regarding the simulated response at the four locations for WU, Y, and WUE to [CO2] was in line with these studies.…”

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confidence: 99%

Uncertainty of wheat water use: Simulated patterns and sensitivity to temperature and CO2

Cammarano

Rötter

Asseng

et al. 2016

Field Crops Research

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Projected global warming and population growth will reduce future water availability for agriculture. Thus, it is essential to increase the efficiency in using water to ensure crop productivity. Quantifying crop water use (WU; i.e. actual evapotranspiration) is a critical step towards this goal. Here, sixteen wheat simulation models were used to quantify sources of model uncertainty and to estimate the relative changes and variability between models for simulated WU, water use efficiency (WUE, WU per unit of grain dry mass produced), transpiration efficiency (Teff, transpiration per kg of unit of grain yield dry mass produced), grain yield, crop transpiration and soil evaporation at increased temperatures and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]). The greatest uncertainty in simulating water use, potential evapotranspiration, crop transpiration and soil evaporation was due to differences in how crop transpiration was modelled and accounted for 50% of the total variability among models. The simulation results for the sensitivity to temperature indicated that crop WU will decline with increasing temperature due to reduced growing seasons. The uncertainties in simulated crop WU, and in particularly due to uncertainties in simulating crop transpiration, were greater under conditions of increased temperatures and with high temperatures in combination with elevated atmospheric [CO2] concentrations. Hence the simulation of crop WU, and in particularly crop transpiration under higher temperature, needs to be improved and evaluated with field measurements before models can be used to simulate climate change impacts on future crop water demand.Keywords: multi-model simulation; transpiration efficiency; water use; uncertainty; sensitivity. IntroductionGlobally, agriculture uses about 70% of all freshwater withdrawals for irrigation, although discrepancies exist in the quantified amount (Alcamo et al., 2007; Howell, 2001;Shen et al., 2008). About 70% of the world's wheat production comes from irrigated or high rainfall regions, with the majority of irrigation concentrated in developing countries with high population density, particularly large producers like China and India (Dixon et al., 2009;Reynolds and Braun, 2013).Projections that global food demand will double by 2050 highlight the challenges agriculture is facing with the need to produce more food with less land and less water (Foley et al., 2011; Godfray et al., 2010). Due to continued population growth, urbanization and industrialization, agriculture will increasingly compete with other sectors for freshwater (Godfray et al., 2010;Siebert and Doll, 2010; Tilman et al., 2011), and climate change may further limit water availability for irrigation in many cropping areas (Elliott et al., 2014). In rainfed agricultural environments, where crops rely on rainfall alone, future changes in rainfall patterns, temperature conditions, and increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]) will affect crop production (Challinor et a...

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confidence: 99%

Uncertainty of wheat water use: Simulated patterns and sensitivity to temperature and CO2

Cammarano

Rötter

Asseng

et al. 2016

Field Crops Research

Self Cite

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“…There are contradictory studies predicting the effects of climate change on crop production. Studies concluded a reduction in agricultural yield by 10-20 % (Tao et al 2008), whereas Tao and Zhang (2013) suggested an increase in winter wheat yields due to warmer winter conditions. Extreme events are expected to increase with negative effects on agricultural production (IPCC 2013).…”

Section: Climate Change and Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Social–ecological challenges in the Yellow River basin (China): a review

et al. 2016

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The human-environment relationship within the Yellow River basin has a long history, because favorable environmental circumstances allowed the early emergence of societies along the river banks, and hence, the Yellow River basin was the birthplace of ancient Chinese civilization. On the other hand, the Yellow River is ''China's sorrow'' due to the constant occurrences of flooding events throughout history. In recent decades, the Yellow River basin is facing a spectacular economic boom, but mainly achieved at the expenses of the environment by over-exploiting the natural resources provided within the basin, which causes various challenges on ecology and society. Water scarcity, pollution, and ecosystem degradation accompanied with biodiversity decline have been further aggravated by anthropogenic-induced climate change. To address the pressing socio-ecological challenges, various conservation and management plans and strategies have been issued, often consulted by international bodies. This article is a comprehensive overview of the current state and recent developments that have occurred in the Yellow River basin and presents and discusses current and pressing socio-ecological challenges. Additionally, we address different policy and management instruments that have been launched to ensure a long-term sustainable development within the basin.

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“…Nevertheless, the climate changes in the NCP (Fig. S2) might indirectly affect SOC by stimulating an increase in crop NPP (Tao and Zhang 2013;Tao et al 2014). Therefore, we can infer that climate effects are of minor importance in agricultural soils because agromanagement options counteract them to a certain extent (Wiesmeier et al 2013;Xu et al 2009); improvement in Horizontal line is the average value corresponding to land use in the bottom.…”

Section: Soc Evolutions During the Last 30 Yearsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes and controlling factors of cropland soil organic carbon in North China Plain over a 30-year period

Han¹,

Sun²,

Li³

et al. 2016

Plant Soil

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Aims Try to detect the spatiotemporal dynamics and the controlling factors of soil organic carbon (SOC) in the North China Plain (NCP) over the last 30 years: 1980s-2010s. Methods We investigated the SOC evolution by compiling data from 32 published papers during the last 30 years. Then we examined the spatial pattern and controlling factors by analysing a two-period sampling observations (1980s and 2010s) and multiple explanatory variables in four typical counties.

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Climate change, wheat productivity and water use in the North China Plain: A new super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection

Cited by 146 publications

References 69 publications

Uncertainty of wheat water use: Simulated patterns and sensitivity to temperature and CO2

Uncertainty of wheat water use: Simulated patterns and sensitivity to temperature and CO2

Social–ecological challenges in the Yellow River basin (China): a review

Changes and controlling factors of cropland soil organic carbon in North China Plain over a 30-year period

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