Climate changes and their impacts on water resources in the arid regions: a case study of the Tarim River basin, China

Qiang, Zhang; Xu, Chong‐Yu; Tao, Hui; Jiang, Tao; Chen, Yongqin David

doi:10.1007/s00477-009-0324-0

Cited by 171 publications

(68 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Previous studies also indicated that the increase of annual runoff of these two catchments was caused by increases in temperature and precipitation, based on correlations between runoff time series of the Kakshaal and Sari-Djaz catchments with precipitation and temperature time series of meteorological stations Zhang et al, 2010], but did not quantify the role of precipitation or temperature increases. Based on a hydrological simulation approach, a study by Zhao et al [2013] found that discharge increases over the period 1970-2007 were (a) due to precipitation increases alone in the Kakshaal catchment and (b) by 96% due to increases in precipitation and 4% due to increases in glacier melt in the Sari-Djaz catchment.…”

Section: Glacier Melt Contribution and Trend Attribution For Two Headmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…Several studies report increasing discharge of the Aksu headwater streams over the period 1957-2004[e.g., Zhang et al, 2010Krysanova et al, 2014]. While it is assumed that these increases are related to concurrent trends in temperature and precipitation [Chen et al, 2009;Xu et al, 2010;Zhang et al, 2010;Tao et al, 2011], a thorough attribution analysis is still missing.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Attribution of streamflow trends in snow and glacier melt‐dominated catchments of the Tarim River, Central Asia

Duethmann

Bolch

Farinotti

et al. 2015

Water Resources Research

172

142

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Observed streamflow of headwater catchments of the Tarim River (Central Asia) increased by about 30% over the period . This study aims at assessing to which extent these streamflow trends can be attributed to changes in air temperature or precipitation. The analysis includes a data-based approach using multiple linear regression and a simulation-based approach using a hydrological model. The hydrological model considers changes in both glacier area and surface elevation. It was calibrated using a multiobjective optimization algorithm with calibration criteria based on glacier mass balance and daily and interannual variations of discharge. The individual contributions to the overall streamflow trends from changes in glacier geometry, temperature, and precipitation were assessed using simulation experiments with a constant glacier geometry and with detrended temperature and precipitation time series. The results showed that the observed changes in streamflow were consistent with the changes in temperature and precipitation. In the Sari-Djaz catchment, increasing temperatures and related increase of glacier melt were identified as the dominant driver, while in the Kakshaal catchment, both increasing temperatures and increasing precipitation played a major role. Comparing the two approaches, an advantage of the simulation-based approach is the fact that it is based on process-based relationships implemented in the hydrological model instead of statistical links in the regression model. However, data-based approaches are less affected by model parameter and structural uncertainties and typically fast to apply. A complementary application of both approaches is recommended.

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Section: Glacier Melt Contribution and Trend Attribution For Two Headmentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Attribution of streamflow trends in snow and glacier melt‐dominated catchments of the Tarim River, Central Asia

Duethmann

Bolch

Farinotti

et al. 2015

Water Resources Research

172

142

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…changes in streamflows, snowmelt timing) are most commonly examined to investigate the impact of climate change on water resources (e.g. Cayan et al 2008;Siliverstovs et al 2009;Zhang et al 2009). To relate lake warming trend with climate change, shifts in trends of air temperature, snowfall percent to total precipitations, and snow melt timing in the basin are examined.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of climate change on thermal properties of lakes and reservoirs, and possible implications

Sahoo

Schladow

Reuter

et al. 2010

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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Meteorologic-driven processes exert large and diverse impacts on lakes' internal heating, cooling, and mixing. Thus, continued global warming and climate change will affect lakes' thermal properties, dynamics, and ecosystem. The impact of climate change on Lake Tahoe (in the states of California and Nevada in the United States) is investigated here, as a case study of climate change effects on the physical processes occurring within a lake. In the Tahoe basin, air temperature data show upward trends and streamflow trends indicate earlier snowmelt. Precipitation in the basin is shifting from snow to rain, and the frequency of intense rainfall events is increasing. In-lake water temperature records of the past 38 years show that Lake Tahoe is warming at an average rate of 0.013°C/year. The future trends of weather variables, such as air temperature, precipitation, longwave radiation, downward shortwave radiation, and wind speed are estimated from predictions of three General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the period 2001-2100. Future trends of weather variables of each GCM are found to be different to those of the other GCMs. A series of simulation years into the future (2000-2040) is established using streamflows and associated loadings, and meteorologic data sets for the period 1994-2004. Future simulation years and trends of weather variables are selected so that: (1) future simulated warming trend would be consistent with the observed warming trend (0.013°C/year); and (2) future mixing pattern frequency would closely match with the historical mixing pattern frequency. Results of 40-year simulations show that the lake continues to become warmer and more stable, and mixing is reduced. Continued warming in the Tahoe has important implications for efforts towards managing biodiversity and maintaining clarity of the lake.

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“…O teste de Mann-Kendall e o teste t do coeficiente angular da equação de regressão são os testes mais utilizados para a verificação de presença de tendência em séries de dados (RODERICK & FARQUHAR, 2005), (WANG et al, 2006) (ZHANG et al, 2010). (XU et al, 2006a).…”

Section: Análise De Tendênciaunclassified

Tendências recentes nos elementos do clima e suas implicações na evapotranspiração da cultura do milho em Viçosa - MG

Alencar¹,

Sediyama²,

Mantovani³

et al. 2011

Eng. Agríc.

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RESUMO:A mudança nas condições climáticas tem gerado grandes preocupações em nível mundial, sendo que uma das grandes questões, neste contexto, é o aquecimento global. As alterações ocorridas nas condições climáticas podem afetar a demanda de água das plantas, porque a evapotranspiração é afetada por mudanças nos elementos climáticos. O objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar os efeitos das possíveis mudanças dos elementos do clima na evapotranspiração de referência e na evapotranspiração da cultura do milho para a região de Viçosa -MG. Mediante análise de tendência pelo teste de Mann-Kendall e da estatística do teste t da regressão linear, verificou-se o comportamento dos seguintes elementos climáticos: temperaturas máxima e mínima, insolação, velocidade do vento e umidade relativa. Observou-se uma redução na evapotranspiração de referência e da cultura do milho ao longo dos últimos 41 anos, principalmente em razão da redução da insolação e da velocidade do vento. A evapotranspiração de referência apresentou redução da ordem de 4,2 mm por ano. PALAVRAS-CHAVE:evapotranspiração do milho, tendência, mudanças climáticas. RECENT TRENDS IN THE WEATHER ELEMENTS AND ITS IMPLICATIONS IN THE MAIZE CROP EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN VIÇOSA-MG, BRAZILABSTRACT: The change in weather conditions has caused great concern in the world and the major issue, in this context, is the global warming. The changes in climate may affect the water demand of plants, because the evapotranspiration is affected by changes in climatic elements. The objective of this study was to examine the possible effects of climatological changes in evapotranspiration and reference evapotranspiration of corn in Viçosa -MG, Brazil. Trend analysis by the Mann-Kendall statistic and student t test of the linear regression were used to study the behavior of the following weather elements: maximum and minimum temperatures, sunshine duration, wind speed and relative humidity. It was observed a reduction in the reference evapotranspiration and maize crop evapotranspiration over the recent past 41 years, mainly because of reduced solar radiation and wind speed. The reference evapotranspiration showed reductions of 4.2 mm per year.KEYWORDS: maize evapotranspiration, trend, climate change. INTRODUÇÃOUm persistente crescimento na quantidade de dióxido de carbono na atmosfera, que pode ser causado pela industrialização e desmatamento, tem sido registrado ao longo das últimas décadas. Esta tendência pode levar a mudanças nas características do clima: temperatura, umidade relativa e precipitação, tanto em níveis globais como regionais (YU et al., 2002).Atualmente, a mudança nas condições climáticas tem gerado grandes preocupações em nível mundial, sendo que uma das grandes questões do presente século é o aquecimento global.

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Climate changes and their impacts on water resources in the arid regions: a case study of the Tarim River basin, China

Cited by 171 publications

References 28 publications

Attribution of streamflow trends in snow and glacier melt‐dominated catchments of the Tarim River, Central Asia

Attribution of streamflow trends in snow and glacier melt‐dominated catchments of the Tarim River, Central Asia

Effects of climate change on thermal properties of lakes and reservoirs, and possible implications

Tendências recentes nos elementos do clima e suas implicações na evapotranspiração da cultura do milho em Viçosa - MG

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