Climate-Driven Changes in the Projected Annual and Seasonal Precipitation over the Northern Highlands of Pakistan

Abstract

Precipitation plays a critical role in the hydrological cycle and significantly influences the biodiversity of the Earth’s ecosystems. It also regulates socioeconomic systems by impacting agricultural production and water resources. Analyzing climate-driven changes in precipitation patterns is essential for understanding the hydrological cycle’s response to global warming. This study analyzed the projections of five general circulation models (GCMs) from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to evaluate variations in the seasonal and annual patterns of future precipitation over the northern highlands of Pakistan (NHP). The analysis focused on precipitation variations projected for the near future (2021–2050), in comparison to the historical climate (1985–2014), utilizing two combined scenarios from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). This study employed the multi-model ensemble (MME) approach, which demonstrated notable seasonal and annual variations in precipitation across the NHP. The average annual precipitation is expected to decrease in both scenarios, with SSP2-4.5 expecting a reduction of −21.42% and SSP5-8.5 expecting a decrease of −22.43%, compared to the historical average precipitation. In both scenarios, the seasonal precipitation patterns are similar. However, the changes are more noticeable in the spring and summer. Both SSPs predict a 15% decrease in summer precipitation, while SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 predict a 5% and 4% decrease in spring precipitation, respectively. These changes can result in more frequent and intense periods of drought, which might adversely impact agriculture, human health, the environment, hydropower generation, and the surrounding ecosystem. This study provides important insights into projected seasonal and annual precipitation changes over the NHP, which is particularly susceptible to the effects of climate change. Thus, it is crucial to understand these predicted changes in precipitation in order to develop strategies for adapting to the climate, assuring water security, and promoting sustainable agricultural practices in this area.