Climate-driven marmot-plague dynamics in Mongolia and China

Xu, Lei; Wang, Qian; Dalantai, Ganbold; Tsogbadrakh, Nyamdorj; Dong, Kaixing; Altantogtokh, Doniddemberel; Liu, Qiyong; Undrakhbold, Sainbileg; Boldgiv, Bazartseren; Wan, Liang; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

doi:10.1038/s41598-023-38966-1

Cited by 8 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…In Mongolia, grazing continues to be performed in a traditional family-based manner as an aspect of nomadic animal husbandry in grasslands. One-third of the region's population maintains a pastoral lifestyle 33 , and the human driving force is large. The distribution and living conditions of livestock are affected by human activities, such as grazing techniques, herdsmen density, and animal husbandry management.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Overgrazing is the main cause of grassland degradation in the Selenge River Basin 35 ; however, traditional livestock data cannot accurately reveal the geographical distribution pattern of livestock or determine the extent of overloaded grazing. In 2020, the number of livestock in Mongolia reached approximately 67.1 million, representing a decrease from the previous year due to the effects of epidemics, natural disasters, and overgrazing of grasslands.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mapping livestock density distribution in the Selenge River Basin of Mongolia using random forest

Liu,

Wang,

Yang

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

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Mapping dynamically distributed livestock in the vast steppe area based on statistical data collected by administrative units is very difficult as it is limited by the quality of statistical data and local geographical environment factors. While, spatial mapping of livestock gridded data is critical and necessary for animal husbandry management, which can be easily integrated and analyzed with other natural environment data. Facing this challenge, this study introduces a spatialization method using random forest (RF) in the Selenge River Basin, which is the main animal husbandry region in Mongolia. A spatialized model was constructed based on the RF to obtain high-resolution gridded distribution data of total livestock, sheep & goats, cattle, and horses. The contribution of factors influencing the spatial distribution of livestock was quantitatively analyzed. The predicted results showed that (1) it has high livestock densities in the southwestern regions and low in the northern regions of the Selenge River Basin; (2) the sheep & goats density was mainly concentrated in 0–125 sheep/km2, and the high-density area was mainly distributed in Khuvsgul, Arkhangai, Bulgan and part soums of Orkhon; (3) horses and cattle density were concentrated in 0–25 head/km2, mainly distributed in the southwest and central parts of the basin, with few high-density areas. This indicates that the RF simulation results effectively depict the characteristics of Selenge River Basin. Further study supported by Geodetector showed human activity was the main driver of livestock distribution in the basin. This study is expected to provide fundamental support for the precise regulation of animal husbandry in the Mongolian Plateau or other large steppe regions worldwide.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping livestock density distribution in the Selenge River Basin of Mongolia using random forest

Liu,

Wang,

Yang

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

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Progress on the research and development of plague vaccines with a call to action

Williamson,

Kilgore,

Hendrix

et al. 2024

npj Vaccines

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There is a compelling demand for approved plague vaccines due to the endemicity ofYersinia pestisand its potential for pandemic spread. Whilst substantial progress has been made, we recommend that the global funding and health security systems should work urgently to translate some of the efficacious vaccines reviewed herein to expedite clinical development and to prevent future disastrous plague outbreaks, particularly caused by antimicrobial resistantY. pestisstrains.Content includes material subject to Crown Copyright © 2024.This is an open access article under the Open Government License (http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/).

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Lethal Plague Outbreaks in Lake Baikal Hunter–gatherers 5500 Years Ago

Macleod,

Seersholm,

de Sanctis

et al. 2024

Preprint

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The rise of zoonotic diseases in prehistory is often associated with the Neolithic agricultural transition1,2. In particular, plague has been linked to population declines in Late Neolithic Europe3,4. Although plague is amongst the most devastating diseases in human history, early strains ofYersinia pestis,the causal agent of plague, lack virulence factors required for the bubonic form5, and their severity remains unclear. Here, we describe the oldest strains of plague reported so far, associated with two early phases of outbreaks among prehistoric hunter–gatherers in the Lake Baikal region in East Siberia, beginning from ∼5600–5400 years ago (cal. BP). These outbreaks occur across four hunter–gatherer cemeteries; the largest of these (Ust’-Ida I) has a 38.7% detection rate for plague infection (39% detection across all sites). By reconstructing kinship pedigrees, we show that small familial groups are affected, consistent with human-to-human spread of the disease, and the first outbreak occurred within a single generation. Intriguingly, the infections appear to have resulted in acute mortality events, especially among children. Zoonotic transmission is separately indicated by aBrucellainfection in one of the children. Interestingly, we see differences in functional genomic variants in the prehistoric plague strains, including in theypmsuperantigen known fromY. pseudotuberculosistoday. The new strains diverge ancestrally to all knownY. pestisdiversity and push back theY. pestisdivergence fromY. pseudotuberculosisby some 2000 years6. Our results show that plague outbreaks happen earlier than previously thought and that these early outbreaks were indeed lethal. The findings challenge the common notion that high population densities and lifestyle changes during the Neolithic transition were prerequisites for plague epidemics.

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Climate-driven marmot-plague dynamics in Mongolia and China

Cited by 8 publications

References 52 publications

Mapping livestock density distribution in the Selenge River Basin of Mongolia using random forest

Mapping livestock density distribution in the Selenge River Basin of Mongolia using random forest

Progress on the research and development of plague vaccines with a call to action

Lethal Plague Outbreaks in Lake Baikal Hunter–gatherers 5500 Years Ago

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