Climate-driven shifts in growth and maturity induce changes to the population and fishery dynamics of a high-value crustacean

Industry and conservation goals are complementary for the most valuable fishery in the United States under climate‐driven life history changes

“…The positive effect of raising MLS was most pronounced when life history was not changed substantially, suggesting that increasing MLS even under static life history characteristics would be advantageous. An important point to consider is that shifts in molt increment probability, molting probability, and SAM have inconsistent effects on lobster population and fishery dynamics (Khalsa et al., 2023). In this study, we only considered these life history changes in tandem, but in reality, these life history shifts will likely manifest with more variability, which could produce differing trajectories for the population and fishery dynamics (Khalsa et al., 2023).…”

“…For simulations, we used the previously developed IBLS (Chang, 2015; Chen et al., 2005; Mazur et al., 2018), as described in Khalsa et al. (2023). The IBLS processes are explained in the supplementary material ( IBLS Overview; Figure S1).…”

“…Simulation study design followed the same protocols as described in Khalsa et al. (2023). Using the IBLS, we conducted a suite of counterfactual simulations that paired hypothesized climate‐driven shifts in lobster growth and maturity with alternative MLS regulations (Table 1).…”

“…Khalsa et al. (2023) found that shifts in growth and maturity are influential on the population and fishery dynamics of lobster, increasing the spawning stock biomass (SSB) and landings, albeit under status quo management. Despite lobster dynamics being sensitive to growth and maturity, there is a paucity of research that considers how these life history changes should be accounted for in management (but see Le Bris et al.…”

“…Here, we use a peer‐reviewed individual‐based lobster simulator (IBLS; Chang, 2015; Chen et al., 2005; Mazur et al., 2018) to expand upon the aforementioned studies and Khalsa et al. (2023) by simulating how status quo and alternative MLSs perform when lobster growth and maturity are shifted as anticipated under climate change. Not only can these findings help inform climate‐ready lobster fishery management, but they can also be used to prioritize future research.…”