Climate‐driven variability in lake and wetland distribution across the Prairie Pothole Region: From modern observations to long‐term reconstructions with space‐for‐time substitution

Liu, Ganming; Schwartz, Franklin W.

doi:10.1029/2011wr011539

Cited by 30 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…These include examination of wetland bird geographic ranges and how they may shift regionally, expand, or contract under future climates (e.g., Steen et al 2014). Other approaches are to use remote sensing techniques to measure the response of wetland numbers and area across the PPR to current and future climates (e.g., Liu and Schwartz 2012) and to determine how functional connections among wetlands may be altered by climate change (e.g., McIntyre et al 2014). This mix of approaches is likely to provide a more comprehensive story of the way in which the future climate may impact the biodiversity and ecological functioning of wetlands.…”

Section: Future Research and Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Effects on Prairie Pothole Wetlands: Findings from a Twenty-five Year Numerical Modeling Project

Johnson

Poiani²

2016

Wetlands

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This paper reviews the findings of a 25-year project that has examined the potential effects of climate change on the vegetation structure, hydrologic function, and biodiversity of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America. The numerical modeling component of the project developed in phases, beginning with the building of a single basin model (WETSIM), followed by a multiple-basin model (WETLANDSCAPE-WLS), and ending with applications of a comprehensive WLS model to specific wetland issues: ecological thresholds and early detection of effects. Coincident with model development was the establishment of a long-term wetland monitoring field site (Orchid Meadows) that includes 18 years of continuous surface and groundwater data on a wetland complex. Also during the project, an intensive study of the historic climate of the PPR was conducted. Model simulations support the following conclusions: prairie wetlands are highly sensitive to climate change; a warmer climate without more precipitation will shrink the effective wetland area of the PPR and reduce waterfowl habitat; strong climatic gradients across the PPR, especially the strong east to west decline in precipitation, complicate the response of PPR wetlands to climate change and approaches to mitigation.

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Section: Future Research and Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Effects on Prairie Pothole Wetlands: Findings from a Twenty-five Year Numerical Modeling Project

Johnson

Poiani²

2016

Wetlands

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“…The average channel width B c over the simulation period is estimated by using the relationship between channel width and discharge in the downstream direction [ Leopold and Maddock , ] with an SFT substitution approach [ Liu and Schwartz , ]:

B_{c} = B_{normalr normale normalf} \sqrt{\frac{Q_{bar}}{Q_{normalr normale normalf}}},

where Q bar is average water discharge for the period of simulation, Q ref is the observed long‐term water discharge of the lower Yellow River for modern times (1950s), and B ref is the long‐term channel width of a section on the modern lower Yellow River, which serves as an analogue for the channel during the simulation period.…”

Section: Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling flood dynamics along the superelevated channel belt of the Yellow River over the last 3000 years

et al. 2015

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The Yellow River, China, experienced >1000 levee breaches during the last 3000 years. A reduced-complexity model is developed in this study to explore the effects of climate change and human activity on flood levels, levee breaches, and river avulsions. The model integrates yearly morphological change along a channel belt with daily river fluxes and hourly evolution of levee breaches. Model sensitivity analysis reveals that under natural conditions, superelevation of the channel belt dominates flood frequency. When there is significant human-accelerated basin erosion and breach repair, the dominant factors shift to a combination of mean annual precipitation, superelevation, critical shear stress of weak channel banks, and the time interval between breach initiation and its repair. The effect of precipitation on flood frequency is amplified by land use changes in the hinterland, particularly in the erodible Loess Plateau. Uncertainty analysis estimates the most likely values of the dominant factors for six historical periods between 850 B.C. and A.D. 1839, which are used to quantitatively reconstruct flood dynamics. During 850 B.C. to A.D. 1839, when the sediment load increased fourfold, the breach recurrence interval was shortened from more than 500 years to less than 6 years, and the breach outflow rate increased~27 times. River management practices during A.D. 1579 to A.D. 1839 focused on levees and triggered a severe positive feedback of increased levee heights and flood hazard exacerbation. Raising the levee heights proved to be ineffective for sustainable flood management.

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“…The numbers of these waterbodies is in the millions with water areas ranging from tens of square meters to hundreds of hectares [20]. These waterbodies are especially well developed in a region of central North America called the Prairie Pothole Region ( Figure A1 in Appendix).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Because lake sediments are usually less permeable than the underlying aquifer, we examine the lakebed conductance of 10 and 50 times smaller than that of the base case. In this study, the recharge rate is less than lake evaporation simply because, in much of the Prairie Pothole Region, evaporation or evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation, averaging negative effective moisture of −0.33 m/year during a 20-year period of 1981-2000 [20]. …”

Section: Numerical Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the Response Time of a Lake–Groundwater Interacting System to Climatic Perturbation

Gong

Liu

Schwartz

2015

Water

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Abstract:Response time, describing how quickly a disturbed system would reach a new equilibrium, has been helpful to hydrogeologists in characterizing and understanding the hydrogeological systems. This study examined the complex response times associated with lake-groundwater perturbed by climate. Simulated hydraulic heads and lake stage values derived from a 3-D, MODFLOW-based model were used to calculate the response times for a closed, groundwater-fed lake system. Although obviously coupled, the response times of the lake and groundwater systems were different from one another. Typically, the adjustments in hydraulic heads occurred more rapidly than lake stage. Response times for groundwaters close to the lake were controlled by the lake because of the slow transient response in stage. However, the influence of the lake declined toward the basin boundaries. This behavior occurred because critical parameters controlling the response-time behavior of the groundwater system (e.g., recharge rate) differed from those controlling the response-time behavior of the lake (e.g., bed leakance). An improved understanding of lake-groundwater behaviors have the potential to evaluate how lakes function as systems for recording paleoclimates.

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Climate‐driven variability in lake and wetland distribution across the Prairie Pothole Region: From modern observations to long‐term reconstructions with space‐for‐time substitution

Cited by 30 publications

References 34 publications

Climate Change Effects on Prairie Pothole Wetlands: Findings from a Twenty-five Year Numerical Modeling Project

Climate Change Effects on Prairie Pothole Wetlands: Findings from a Twenty-five Year Numerical Modeling Project

Modeling flood dynamics along the superelevated channel belt of the Yellow River over the last 3000 years

Quantifying the Response Time of a Lake–Groundwater Interacting System to Climatic Perturbation

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