Climate-driven variations in productivity reveal adaptive strategies in Iberian cork oak agroforestry systems

Pérez-Girón, José Carlos; Díaz-Varela, Emilio; Álvarez‐Álvarez, Pedro

doi:10.1016/j.fecs.2022.100008

Cited by 11 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…The study of the interaction between the solar radiation and the crown cover allowed the understanding of how the climatic changes have differentiated effects depending on the stand's degree of tree coverage. Works by Príncipe et al established the importance of local factors regarding crown cover, such as elevation and solar radiation [41], as well as by Pérez-Girón et al which found that the canopy reduction may increase the cork oak stands' vulnerability to macroclimate conditions [42]. In fact, they observed how a dense canopy can maintain microclimatic conditions making it less dependent of environmental conditions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Protective Role of Canopy Cover against Cork Oak Decline in the Face of Climate Change

Ribeiro,

Camilo-Alves,

Ribeiro

2023

Preprint

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Cork oak mortality has reached alarming proportions in the last decades, exacerbated by climate change. Understanding this phenomenon is crucial in finding mitigation or adaptation strategies. This study conducts a diachronic analysis of cork oak mortality over 10 years using GIS tools, focusing on Portugal's Tagus Lezíria region. Topographic, edaphic and climatic variables were employed to create maps of edaphoclimatic aptitude for cork oaks. Dead trees were identified using remote sensing techniques and crown coverage was determined to calculate the mortality index. The diachronic analysis aimed to explore climate change effects on cork oak mortality. A decrease in precipitation was observed, significantly impacting stands with canopy cover below 40%. Furthermore, a negative effect of solar radiation identified only in stands with canopy cover of 40% suggested its role in cork oak decline. This study introduces a novel perspective, highlighting the protective effect of denser canopy cover (above 40%) against excessive solar radiation and the impact of reduced precipitation. The integrated and diachronic approach provides valuable information for adapting management strategies to climate change challenges.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Protective Role of Canopy Cover against Cork Oak Decline in the Face of Climate Change

Ribeiro,

Camilo-Alves,

Ribeiro

2023

Preprint

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“…Most of this growth will come from area currently under the cattle grazing-CO system (Figure 4), which is one of the top area losers, expected to drop between 22% and 72% of its current area, respectively, in the low and high emission scenarios (Table 2). This extensive replacement of cork oak with holm oak agroforestry systems is probably related to the distinct agroecological preferences of both oak species, which currently makes the cork oak dominant to the west and north of Alentejo, where the climate tends to be less hot and dry due to the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean [27], and makes the holm oak more frequent in the warmer and drier southern interior of the Alentejo region [16,28]. Thereby, the widespread decrease in precipitation and increase in summer heat will likely prompt holm oak to expand to areas that are currently dominated by cork oak.…”

Section: Effects Of Climate Change On Farming System Choicementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The primary FS shift expected to be induced by climate change until the end of the century refers to the significant westward expansion of the cattle grazing-HO system, towards areas that are currently dominated by the cattle grazing-CO system. These shifts, induced by climate change, are also probably being mediated by other drivers and constraints of FS choice, such as the agroecological preferences of both oak species [16,27,28] expressed by other variables in the model that, although kept constant, are also influencing the FS choice, together with the climate variables. The predicted sharp reduction in the cork oak area is likely to imply significant social and economic impacts at the national level, given the high importance of the cork cluster in Portugal [29].…”

Section: Climate Change and Farming System Choicementioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring the Effects of Climate Change on Farming System Choice: A Farm-Level Space-for-Time Approach

Ribeiro,

Santos

2023

Land

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Climate change is expected to affect the agricultural sector in ways that are often unclear to predict. If in the short- and medium-terms farmers may adapt to climate change by adjusting their agricultural practices, in the long-term, these adjustments may become insufficient, forcing farmers to change their farming systems. The extent and direction in which these farming system transitions will occur is still a subject that is underexplored in the literature. We propose a new framework to explore the effect of climate change on the choice of farming system while controlling the effect of other drivers that are also known to influence the farming system choice. Using a spatially explicit farming system choice model developed by a previous study in an extensive agricultural region of southern Portugal, we applied a space-for-time approach to simulate the effect of climate change on the future dynamics of the farming systems in the study area. The results suggest that climate change will force many farmers to change the farming system in a foreseeable future. The extent of the projected changes in farming systems is likely to trigger significant social, economic, and environmental impacts, which should require early attention from policy makers.

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“…The primary FS shift expected to be induced by climate change till the end of the century refers to the significant westward expansion of the Cattle grazing -HO system, towards areas currently dominated by the Cattle grazing -CO system. This extensive replacement of cork oak by holm oak agroforestry systems is probably related to the distinct agroecological preferences of both oak species, which currently makes the cork oak dominant to the west and north of Alentejo, where the climate tends to be less hot and dry due to the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean [25], and the holm oak more frequent in the warmer and drier southern interior of the Alentejo region [16,26]. Thereby, the widespread decrease in precipitation and increase in summer heat will likely prompt holm oak to expand to areas currently dominated by cork oak.…”

Section: Marginal Effects Of Climate Change On Farming System Choicementioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring the Marginal Effects of Climate Change on Farming System Choice: A Farm-Level Space-for-Time Approach

Ribeiro,

Santos

2023

Preprint

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Climate change is expected to affect the agricultural sector in ways that are often unclear to predict. If in the short- medium-terms farmers may adapt to climate change by adjusting agricultural practices, in the long-term these adjustments may become insufficient, forcing farmers to change their farming systems. The extent and direction in which these farming system transitions will occur is still a subject underexplored in the literature. We propose a new framework to explore the marginal effect of climate change on the choice of the farming system, while controlling the effect of other drivers known to also influence farming system choice. Using a spatial-explicit farming system choice-model developed by a previous study in an extensive agricultural region of southern Portugal, we applied a space-for-time approach to simulate the effect of climate change on the future dynamics of the farming systems in the study area. Results suggest that climate change will force many farmers to change the farming system in a foreseeable future. The extent of the projected changes in farming systems is likely to trigger significant social, economic, or environmental impacts, which should require early attention from policy makers.

show abstract

Climate-driven variations in productivity reveal adaptive strategies in Iberian cork oak agroforestry systems

Cited by 11 publications

References 61 publications

The Protective Role of Canopy Cover against Cork Oak Decline in the Face of Climate Change

The Protective Role of Canopy Cover against Cork Oak Decline in the Face of Climate Change

Exploring the Effects of Climate Change on Farming System Choice: A Farm-Level Space-for-Time Approach

Exploring the Marginal Effects of Climate Change on Farming System Choice: A Farm-Level Space-for-Time Approach

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