Climate effect on COVID-19 spread rate: an online surveillance tool

Abstract

Background: COVID-19 outbreak poses an unprecedented challenge for societies, healthcare organizations and economies. In the present analysis we coupled climate data with COVID-19 spread rates worldwide, and in a single country (USA). two measures: replication rate (RR), the slope of the logarithmic curve of confirmed cases, and the rate of spread (RoS), the slope of the linear regression of the logarithmic curve.Results: Based on predefined criteria, the mean COVID-19 RR was significantly lower in warm climate countries (0.12±0.02) compared with cold countries (0.24±0.01), (P<0.0001). Similarly, RoS was significantly lower in warm climate countries 0.12±0.02 vs. 0.25 ± 0.01 than in cold climate countries (P<0.001). In all countries (independent of climate classification) both RR and RoS displayed a moderate negative correlation with temperature R= -0.69, 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.87 to -0.36; P<0.001 and R= -0.72, 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.87 to -0.36; P<0.001, respectively. We identified a similar moderate negative correlation with the dew point temperature. Additional climate variables did not display a significant correlation with neither RR nor RoS. Finally, in an ancillary analysis, COVID-19 intra-country model using an inter-state analysis of the USA did not identify yet correlation between climate parameters and RR or RoS as of March, 19, 2020. Conclusions:Our analysis suggests a plausible negative correlation between warmer climate and COVID-19 spread rate as defined by RR and RoS worldwide. This initial correlation should be interpreted cautiously and be further validated over time, the pandemic is at different stages in various countries as well as in regions within these countries. As such, some associations may be more affected by local transmission patterns rather than by climate. Importantly, we provide an All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.

The effect of climate on the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic: A review of findings, and statistical and modelling techniques

“…Most studies (33 out of 61) suggest a negative correlation between COVID-19 and temperature. A negative correlation was found in worldwide studies (Arumugam et al, 2020;Caspi et al, 2020;Chiyomaru and Takemoto, 2020;Notari, 2020;Pirouz et al, 2020;Sajadi et al, 2020;X Wu et al, 2020;Yu, 2020), in California (Gupta and Gupta, 2020), Japan (Ujiie et al, 2020), Ghana (Abdul et al, 2020), Spain (Abdollahi and Rahbaralam, 2020;Tobías and Molina, 2020), Italy (Livadiotis, 2020) and in China (Oliveiros et al, 2020;Qi et al, 2020;Shi et al, 2020;Sil and Kumar, 2020). However, other studies came to the opposite conclusion (6 out of 61): a positive correlation between COVID-19 and temperature in Jakarta (Tosepu et al, 2020) and New York (Bashir et al, 2020), or no association (9 out of 61) in countries such as Spain (Briz-Redón and Serrano-Aroca, 2020), Iran (Ahmadi et al, 2020;Jahangiri et al, 2020), Nigeria (Taiwo and Fashola, 2020) and in a worldwide study (Jamil et al, 2020).…”

COVID-19 Diagnostics, Tools, and Prevention

“…There is a moderate negative correlation between the mean replication rate and temperature, with a p value < 0.001. Data were taken from Caspi et al [55] "Climate Effect on COVID-19 Spread Rate: An Online Surveillance Tool" with permission. The mode of ejection affects velocity and distance traveled, while the size affects the ability to stay in the air; (b) The difference in the spread of viral load and aerosol droplets with a mask and without a mask; (c) The relationship between the mean replication rate of SARS-CoV-2 and the temperature of 24 different countries is demonstrated.…”

“…There is a moderate negative correlation between the mean replication rate and temperature, with a p value < 0.001. Data were taken from Caspi et al [55] "Climate Effect on COVID-19 Spread Rate: An Online Surveillance Tool" with permission.…”

A Psychological Analysis of Parental Favouritism and Hypocrycy of Family Love in Mansfield's 'New Dresses'

“…Parental Favouritism Suitor et al (2009) define parental favoritism as a 'parent affect' and 'perceptions of parental preference' (cited in Caspi, 2011). In other words, parental favoritism refers to the fact that one sibling is more favored or less favored than the other by their parents.…”