Climate Forecasts and Flood Mitigation

Sims, Charles; Null, Sarah E.

doi:10.1002/soej.12331

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 71 publications

(92 reference statements)

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“…Incorporating weather forecasts into reservoir operations may improve water management with precipitation surplus events (Alexander et al., 2021). In general, building flexibility into water infrastructure and management is an adaptation for hydrological intensification (Gersonius et al., 2013) and could include modifying dam operations (Ehsani et al., 2017), revising flood operating rules (Willis et al., 2011), or incorporating climate projections into flood risk mitigation (Sims & Null, 2019).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological Intensification Will Increase the Complexity of Water Resource Management

et al. 2022

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Global warming intensifies the hydrological cycle by altering the rate of water fluxes to and from the terrestrial surface, resulting in an increase in extreme precipitation events and longer dry spells. Prior hydrological intensification work has largely focused on precipitation without joint consideration of evaporative demand changes and how plants respond to these changes. Informed by state‐of‐the‐art climate models, we examine projected changes in hydrological intensification and its role in complicating water resources management using a framework that accounts for precipitation surplus and evaporative demand. Using a metric that combines the difference between daily precipitation and daily evaporative demand (surplus events) and consecutive days when evaporative demand exceeds precipitation (deficit time), we show that, globally, surplus events will become larger (+11.5% and +18.5% for moderate and high emission scenarios, respectively) and the duration between them longer (+5.1%; +9.6%) by the end of the century, with the largest changes in the northern latitudes. The intra‐annual occurrence of these extremes will stress existing water management infrastructure in major river basins, where over one third of years during 2070–2100 under a moderate emissions scenario will be hydrologically intense (large intra‐annual increases in surplus intensity and deficit time), tripling that of the historical baseline. Larger increases in hydrologically intense years are found in basins with large reservoir capacity (e.g., Amazon, Congo, and Danube River Basins), which have significant populations, irrigate considerable farmland, and support threatened and endangered aquatic species. Incorporating flexibility into water resource infrastructure and management will be paramount with continued hydrological intensification.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological Intensification Will Increase the Complexity of Water Resource Management

et al. 2022

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An application of dynamic programming to local adaptation decision-making

Muccione,

Lontzek,

Huggel

et al. 2023

Nat Hazards

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Adaptation decision-making in mountain regions necessitates dealing with uncertainties which are driven by the complex topography and the potential interconnections of stochastic events. Such events can lead to amplifying consequences for the exposed communities located at different elevations. In this study, we present a stylized application of stochastic dynamic programming for local adaptation decision-making for a small alpine community exposed to debris flows and floods. We assume that local decision-makers and planners aim at maximizing specific objectives by choosing from a feasible set of adaptation measures and under given constraints on these actions. Our results show that stochastic dynamic programming is a promising tool to address the underlying problem faced by local planners when evaluating the feasibility and effectiveness of adaptation measures. Furthermore, stochastic dynamic programming has some advantages compared to deterministic approaches which assume full knowledge of the system of interest in a world dominated by randomness. We provide an estimation of a best option and an appropriate metric to benchmark adaptation effectiveness for long time horizons. We show how multiple constraints, risk preferences, time horizons and decision periods all influence the decision-making and the overall success of adaptation responses over time.

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Stochastic streamflow and dissolved silica dynamics with application to the worst-case long-run evaluation of water environment

Yoshioka

2022

Optim Eng

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Climate Forecasts and Flood Mitigation

Cited by 4 publications

References 71 publications

Hydrological Intensification Will Increase the Complexity of Water Resource Management

Hydrological Intensification Will Increase the Complexity of Water Resource Management

An application of dynamic programming to local adaptation decision-making

Stochastic streamflow and dissolved silica dynamics with application to the worst-case long-run evaluation of water environment

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