Climate impact storylines for assessing socio-economic responses to remote events

Hurk, Bart van den; Pacchetti, Marina Baldissera; Boere, Esther; Ciullo, Alessio; Coulter, Liese; Dessai, Suraje; Ercin, Ertug; Goulart, Henrique Moreno Dumont; Hamed, Raed; Hochrainer‐Stigler, Stefan; Koks, Elco; Kubiczek, Patryk; Levermann, Anders; Mechler, Reinhard; Meersbergen, Maarten van; Mester, Benedikt; Middelanis, Robin; Minderhoud, Katie; Myšiak, Jaroslav; Nirandjan, Sadhana; Oord, Gijs van den; Otto, Christian; Sayers, Paul; Schewe, Jacob; Shepherd, Theodore G.; Sillmann, Jana; Stuparu, Dana; Vogt, Thomas; Witpas, Katrien

doi:10.1016/j.crm.2023.100500

Cited by 14 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 93 publications

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“…These three methods include the different complex interactions of compound weather events, their impacts, and their influence under climate change. 12 , 66 The adaptation pathways concept (e.g., 67 , 68 , 69 , 70 ) is one idea of how to break the current siloed approaches in risk management and potential path dependency. 29 The idea behind adaptation pathways is to develop different trajectories or alternative solutions—based on different climate conditions—for the future planning of risk management.…”

Section: Adaptation Pathways Storylines or Stress Tests For Operation...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Addressing path dependencies in decision-making processes for operationalizing compound climate-risk management

et al. 2023

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Section: Adaptation Pathways Storylines or Stress Tests For Operation...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Addressing path dependencies in decision-making processes for operationalizing compound climate-risk management

et al. 2023

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“…The setup of our simulations is inspired by a storyline approach, where the impacts of a historical reference event are compared to alternative realizations of this event under counterfactual climate or socio-economic conditions [37,38]. Recent studies have further extended the concept of storylines by incorporating complex socio-economic impact chains of climate extremes [39]. Accordingly, we define two scenarios under which economic loss propagation from climate extremes is simulated, varying the socio-economic backdrop.…”

Section: Methods Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stressed economies respond more strongly to climate extremes

Middelanis,

Willner,

Kuhla

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Economies experience stress for various reasons such as the global Covid-19 pandemic beginning in 2020. The associated lock-downs caused local economic losses and the disruption of international supply chains. In addition, such stress alters the effects of short-term shocks as caused by climate extremes, especially their propagation through the economic network and the resulting repercussions. Here we show that adverse indirect impacts of tropical cyclones, river floods, and heat stress on global consumption are strongly enhanced when the economy is under stress. This compound effect results from aggravated scarcity causing higher consumer prices. Modeling climate impacts during Covid-19, we find that in a stressed economy with the current network structure, consumption losses due to climate extremes double in the USA and triple in China. The simulated effects intensify when climate shocks grow stronger. Our results emphasize the amplifying role of the interaction between climate change and its socioeconomic backdrop.

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“…Challenge 3 refers to our limited understanding of the relationships between the socioeconomic impacts of hydrological extremes (Pescaroli & Alexander, 2016;Simpson et al, 2021;UNDRR, 2021c). These impacts are not isolated; rather, they form an intricate network where impact outputs from one sector or system can become inputs into others depending on existing dependencies and vulnerabilities (Ding et al, 2011).…”

Section: Challenges In the Understanding Of CCImentioning

confidence: 99%

“…10.1029/2023EF003906 3 of 22 cascading impacts linked to the COVID-19 pandemic and its policy responses to it (UNDRR, 2021c). Interactions between hydrological extremes have also been investigated.…”

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confidence: 99%

Uncovering the Dynamics of Multi‐Sector Impacts of Hydrological Extremes: A Methods Overview

de Brito,

Sodoge,

Fekete

et al. 2024

Earth's Future

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Hydrological extremes, such as droughts and floods, can trigger a complex web of compound and cascading impacts (CCI) due to interdependencies between coupled natural and social systems. However, current decision‐making processes typically only consider one impact and disaster event at a time, ignoring causal chains, feedback loops, and conditional dependencies between impacts. Analyses capturing these complex patterns across space and time are thus needed to inform effective adaptation planning. This perspective paper aims to bridge this critical gap by presenting methods for assessing the dynamics of the multi‐sector CCI of hydrological extremes. We discuss existing challenges, good practices, and potential ways forward. Rather than pursuing a single methodological approach, we advocate for methodological pluralism. We see complementary or even convergent roles for analyses based on quantitative (e.g., data‐mining, systems modeling) and qualitative methods (e.g., mental models, qualitative storylines). The data‐driven and knowledge‐driven methods provided here can serve as a useful starting point for understanding the dynamics of both high‐frequency CCI and low‐likelihood but high‐impact CCI. With this perspective, we hope to foster research on CCI to improve the development of adaptation strategies for reducing the risk of hydrological extremes.

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Climate impact storylines for assessing socio-economic responses to remote events

Cited by 14 publications

References 93 publications

Addressing path dependencies in decision-making processes for operationalizing compound climate-risk management

Addressing path dependencies in decision-making processes for operationalizing compound climate-risk management

Stressed economies respond more strongly to climate extremes

Uncovering the Dynamics of Multi‐Sector Impacts of Hydrological Extremes: A Methods Overview

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