Climate-induced phenology shifts linked to range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year

Macgregor, Callum J.; Thomas, Chris D.; Roy, David B.; Beaumont, Mark A.; Bell, James R.; Brereton, Tom; Bridle, Jon R.; Dytham, Calvin; Fox, Richard; Gotthard, Karl; Hoffmann, Ary A.; Martin, Geoff; Middlebrook, I.; Nylin, Sören; Platts, Philip J.; Rasteiro, Rita; Saccheri, Ilik J.; Villoutreix, Romain; Wheat, Christopher W.; Hill, Jane K.

doi:10.1038/s41467-019-12479-w

Cited by 109 publications

(106 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…In Massachusetts, multivoltine butterflies (including the mustard white) are more likely to be increasing than univoltine ones (Breed et al, ), which broadly corroborates the potential for demographic benefits for species that can potentially add additional generations. In addition to the evidence that many temperate butterfly species are shifting northward (Hill et al, ; Hill, Thomas, & Huntley, ; MacGregor et al, ; Parmesan et al, ), our results support the idea that the multivoltine mustard white butterfly might have phenological resilience against warming climate, preventing southern ranges from disappearing.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 83%

Developmental trap or demographic bonanza? Opposing consequences of earlier phenology in a changing climate for a multivoltine butterfly

Kerr

Wepprich

Grevstad

et al. 2020

Global Change Biology

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A rapidly changing climate has the potential to interfere with the timing of environmental cues that ectothermic organisms rely on to initiate and regulate life history events. Short‐lived ectotherms that exhibit plasticity in their life history could increase the number of generations per year under warming climate. If many individuals successfully complete an additional generation, the population experiences an additional opportunity to grow, and a warming climate could lead to a demographic bonanza. However, these plastic responses could become maladaptive in temperate regions, where a warmer climate could trigger a developmental pathway that cannot be completed within the growing season, referred to as a developmental trap. Here we incorporated detailed demography into commonly used photothermal models to evaluate these demographic consequences of phenological shifts due to a warming climate on the formerly widespread, multivoltine butterfly (Pieris oleracea). Using species‐specific temperature‐ and photoperiod‐sensitive vital rates, we estimated the number of generations per year and population growth rate over the set of climate conditions experienced during the past 38 years. We predicted that populations in the southern portion of its range have added a fourth generation in recent years, resulting in higher annual population growth rates (demographic bonanzas). We predicted that populations in the Northeast United States have experienced developmental traps, where increases in the thermal window initially caused mortality of the final generation and reduced growth rates. These populations may recover if more growing degree days are added to the year. Our framework for incorporating detailed demography into commonly used photothermal models demonstrates the importance of using both demography and phenology to predict consequences of phenological shifts.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 83%

Developmental trap or demographic bonanza? Opposing consequences of earlier phenology in a changing climate for a multivoltine butterfly

Kerr

Wepprich

Grevstad

et al. 2020

Global Change Biology

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“…Overall, shifts in phenology for less flexible species, as the ones with a single annual reproductive cycle, are less pronounced than showed here (Macgregor et al, 2019). It is not, however, the first time where univoltine butterflies seem to be more prone to develop adaptations against the dry and hot summer of Mediterranean region (Garcia- Barros, 1988).…”

Section: Date Of Appearancementioning

confidence: 62%

Butterfly phenology in Mediterranean mountains using space‐for‐time substitution

Zografou

Grill

Wilson

et al. 2020

Ecology and Evolution

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Inferring species' responses to climate change in the absence of long-term time series data is a challenge, but can be achieved by substituting space for time. For example, thermal elevational gradients represent suitable proxies to study phenological responses to warming. We used butterfly data from two Mediterranean mountain areas to test whether mean dates of appearance of communities and individual species show a delay with increasing altitude, and an accompanying shortening in the duration of flight periods. We found a 14-day delay in the mean date of appearance per kilometer increase in altitude for butterfly communities overall, and an average 23day shift for 26 selected species, alongside average summer temperature lapse rates of 3°C per km. At higher elevations, there was a shortening of the flight period for the community of 3 days/km, with an 8.8-day average decline per km for individual species. Rates of phenological delay differed significantly between the two mountain ranges, although this did not seem to result from the respective temperature lapse rates. These results suggest that climate warming could lead to advanced and lengthened flight periods for Mediterranean mountain butterfly communities. However, although multivoltine species showed the expected response of delayed and shortened flight periods at higher elevations, univoltine species showed more pronounced delays in terms of species appearance. Hence, while projections of overall community responses to climate change may benefit from space-for-time substitutions, understanding species-specific responses to local features of habitat and climate may be needed to accurately predict the effects of climate change on phenology. K E Y W O R D Schanging climate, developmental delay, elevational gradient, emergence time, flight period S U PP O RTI N G I N FO R M ATI O NAdditional supporting information may be found online in the Supporting Information section.

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“…As small ectotherms whose body temperature closely matches ambient temperature, insects are particularly susceptible to thermal perturbation. Climate change-related temperature variation has been implicated in altered phenology, distribution range, and population abundance of many insect species around the world (Parmesan, 2006;Buckley et al, 2017;Cohen et al, 2018;Macgregor et al, 2019). In this section, we focus on insects' capability to tolerate, adjust, and adapt to temperature change, which their response to climate change will greatly depend on.…”

Section: Thermal Developmental Plasticitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Thermal Plasticity in Insects’ Response to Climate Change and to Multifactorial Environments

Rodrigues

Beldade

2020

Front. Ecol. Evol.

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Phenotypic plasticity, the property by which living organisms express different phenotypes depending on environmental conditions, can impact their response to environmental perturbation, including that resulting from climate change. When exposed to altered environmental conditions, phenotypic plasticity might help or might hinder both immediate survival and future adaptation. Because climate change will cause more than a global rise in mean temperatures, it is valuable to consider the combined effects of temperature and other environmental variables on trait expression (thermal plasticity), as well as trait evolution (thermal adaptation). In this review, we focus primarily on thermal developmental plasticity in insects. We discuss the genomics of thermal plasticity and its relationship to thermal adaptation and thermal tolerance, and to climate change and multifactorial environments.

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Climate-induced phenology shifts linked to range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year

Cited by 109 publications

References 50 publications

Developmental trap or demographic bonanza? Opposing consequences of earlier phenology in a changing climate for a multivoltine butterfly

Developmental trap or demographic bonanza? Opposing consequences of earlier phenology in a changing climate for a multivoltine butterfly

Butterfly phenology in Mediterranean mountains using space‐for‐time substitution

Thermal Plasticity in Insects’ Response to Climate Change and to Multifactorial Environments

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