Climate, Land Cover, and Bird Populations: Differential Impacts on the Future Welfare of Birders across the Pacific Northwest

Abstract

We use a random utility model for birding destination choices based on the reports of Oregon and Washington State members of the Cornell University Laboratory of Ornithology eBird citizen science project. We estimate spatially differentiated welfare effects that birders may experience as a consequence of forecasted changes in land cover and climate. We predict per-trip welfare effects (equivalent variations) expected under a business-as-usual scenario using published forecasts for both land cover and species richness. We find significant county-level heterogeneity across eBirders in predicted average per-trip welfare effects. The results suggest discernible distributional consequences across active birders in different areas.

Using Auxiliary Population Samples for Sample-Selection Correction in Models Based on Crowd-Sourced Volunteered Geographic Information

“…Changes in land-cover and climate present significant threats to the declining wild bird populations documented in Rosenberg et al (2019). Changes in bird populations affect birdwatcher welfare (as in Kolstoe et al (2018)). To limit the loss of bird populations and bird biodiversity, multiple agencies at all levels of government will likely need to work together.…”

“…We illustrate our selection-correction strategies for a sample of birdwatchers who participate in the eBird citizen science project. The eBird project has already proven itself to be a valuable CS/VGI data source for both natural scientists and social scientists alike (for example Rosenberg et al (2019), Kolstoe and Cameron (2017), Kolstoe et al (2018), Roberts et al (2017)). Furthermore, birdwatching is a very popular pastime.…”

Leveraging the NEON Airborne Observation Platform for socio‐environmental systems research

“…Additional technological innovations provide observations of human behavior that can be paired with spatial data. Examples include volunteered geographic information data sources like community science projects (e.g., Kolstoe et al 2018), spatially explicit complaints of landuse violations (Heider et al 2018), and social media data that can be used to gather information about when and where people visit certain locations (Teles da Mota and Pickering 2020) and the value of cultural ecosystem services (Keeler et al 2015, Kolstoe et al 2018. These data can also be combined with spatial data and forecasts to estimate welfare effects based on forecasted land cover and climate change (Kolstoe et al 2018).…”

An economic analysis of twitching behaviour and species rarity

“…If this is the case, there is a need to consider the legal protection of vagrants as noted by Davis and Watson (2018) and a discussion around longer term survival probabilities becomes more relevant. As Kolstoe et al (2018) examine, this also opens a discussion on how climate change might affect the utility of birdwatchers as bird species move.…”