Climate Links and Variability of Extreme Sea-Level Events at Key West, Pensacola, and Mayport, Florida

Park, Joseph; Obeysekera, Jayantha; Irizarry-Ortiz, Michelle M.; Barnes, Jenifer; Park-Said, Winifred

doi:10.1061/(asce)ww.1943-5460.0000052

Cited by 17 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Primary findings of the analysis in Park et al (2010) are that extreme tidal water levels and durations at Key West and Pensacola have statistically significant trends when regressed against the AMO index. Concerning this relation between extreme events and the AMO, mean event statistics exhibited an increase in event duration and maximum water level during AMO warm events.…”

Section: Event Duration Linked To Amomentioning

confidence: 99%

“…With respect to event durations, Smith (1998) fit Weibull distributions to event durations and suggested independence between duration and extreme coastal wave heights, and Haigh et al (2010) assessed yearly average and total duration of surge from numerous records along the coast of Britain. A recent analysis by Park et al (2010) found positive trends between both extreme sea level and event duration with respect to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (Kerr, 2000) at Key West and Pensacola, Florida.…”

Section: Certainly There Ismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Here we are concerned with further analysis of the link found between AMO and duration of extreme events at Key West and Pensacola by Park et al (2010). A timeseries analysis based on the Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform (MODWT) (Percival and Walden, 2006) applied to surge events is used to decompose event energy into independent components.…”

Section: Certainly There Ismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This method detects extreme events based on their "energy distance" from the astronomical tidal variation and identified a total of 60 events at Key West and 70 at Pensacola. The raw data, detection algorithm and event statistics are described in Park et al (2010).…”

Section: Extreme Event Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since extreme sea level events do not occur at a single point in time, but span a finite duration, a more comprehensive metric considers the relative event energies over the event duration. Event durations, τ , were defined by Park et al (2010) as the contiguous interval over which the moving sample variance of the NTR exceeded the 99.5 percentile.…”

Section: Event Energy Partitionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Temporal energy partitions of Florida extreme sea level events as a function of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

2010

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Abstract. An energy-conservative metric based on the discrete wavelet transform is applied to assess the relative energy distribution of extreme sea level events across different temporal scales. The metric is applied to coastal events at Key West and Pensacola Florida as a function of two Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) regimes. Under AMO warm conditions there is a small but significant redistribution of event energy from nearly static into more dynamic (shorter duration) timescales at Key West, while at Pensacola the AMO-dependent changes in temporal event behaviour are less pronounced. Extreme events with increased temporal dynamics might be consistent with an increase in total energy of event forcings which may be a reflection of more energetic storm events during AMO warm phases. As dynamical models mature to the point of providing regional climate index predictability, coastal planners may be able to consider such temporal change metrics in planning scenarios.

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Section: Event Duration Linked To Amomentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Certainly There Ismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Certainly There Ismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Extreme Event Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Event Energy Partitionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Temporal energy partitions of Florida extreme sea level events as a function of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

2010

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From the extreme to the mean: Acceleration and tipping points of coastal inundation from sea level rise

2014

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Relative sea level rise (RSLR) has driven large increases in annual water level exceedances (duration and frequency) above minor (nuisance level) coastal flooding elevation thresholds established by the National Weather Service (NWS) at U.S. tide gauges over the last half-century. For threshold levels below 0.5 m above high tide, the rates of annual exceedances are accelerating along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts, primarily from evolution of tidal water level distributions to higher elevations impinging on the flood threshold. These accelerations are quantified in terms of the local RSLR rate and tidal range through multiple regression analysis. Along the U.S. West Coast, annual exceedance rates are linearly increasing, complicated by sharp punctuations in RSLR anomalies during El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases, and we account for annual exceedance variability along the U.S. West and East Coasts from ENSO forcing. Projections of annual exceedances above local NWS nuisance levels at U.S. tide gauges are estimated by shifting probability estimates of daily maximum water levels over a contemporary 5-year period following probabilistic RSLR projections of Kopp et al. (2014) for representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. We suggest a tipping point for coastal inundation (30 days/per year with a threshold exceedance) based on the evolution of exceedance probabilities. Under forcing associated with the local-median projections of RSLR, the majority of locations surpass the tipping point over the next several decades regardless of specific RCP.

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Evidence for multidecadal variability in US extreme sea level records

2015

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We analyze a set of 20 tide gauge records covering the contiguous United States (US) coastline and the period from 1929 to 2013 to identify long-term trends and multidecadal variations in extreme sea levels (ESLs) relative to changes in mean sea level (MSL). Different data sampling and analysis techniques are applied to test the robustness of the results against the selected methodology. Significant but small long-term trends in ESLs above/below MSL are found at individual sites along most coastline stretches, but are mostly confined to the southeast coast and the winter season when storm surges are primarily driven by extratropical cyclones. We identify six regions with broadly coherent and considerable multidecadal ESL variations unrelated to MSL changes. Using a quasi-nonstationary extreme value analysis, we show that the latter would have caused variations in design relevant return water levels (50-200 year return periods) ranging from 10 cm to as much as 110 cm across the six regions. The results raise questions as to the applicability of the ''MSL offset method,'' assuming that ESL changes are primarily driven by changes in MSL without allowing for distinct long-term trends or low-frequency variations. Identifying the coherent multidecadal ESL variability is crucial in order to understand the physical driving factors. Ultimately, this information must be included into coastal design and adaptation processes.

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Climate Links and Variability of Extreme Sea-Level Events at Key West, Pensacola, and Mayport, Florida

Cited by 17 publications

References 18 publications

Temporal energy partitions of Florida extreme sea level events as a function of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

Temporal energy partitions of Florida extreme sea level events as a function of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

From the extreme to the mean: Acceleration and tipping points of coastal inundation from sea level rise

Evidence for multidecadal variability in US extreme sea level records

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