Climate Modeling, Drought Risk Assessment and Adaptation Strategies in the Western Part of Bangladesh

Kamruzzaman, Md.; Mandal, Tapash; Rahman, Arafat; Khalek, Md. Abdul; Alam, G. M. Monirul; Rahman, Md. Saidur

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-77259-8_2

Cited by 10 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Bangladesh is a tropical-moist climate-based area characterized by seasonal diversity in precipitation, moderate ambient temperature, and high relative humidity ( 43 ). The country has four climatic seasons in a year: lower temperature in the winter (from December to February); higher temperature in the summer (from March to May), the rainy season (from June to September), and the post-monsoon autumn (from October to November) ( 44 ). From the observation of daily temperature data in the last 61 years (1960–2021), the average temperature of 25.2°C occurs in July, a minimum temperature of 12.9°C occurs in January while the maximum temperature of 33.5°C is observed in April.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Association of household fuel with acute respiratory infection (ARI) under-five years children in Bangladesh

Islam

Hasan

Ahammed

et al. 2022

Front. Public Health

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In developing countries, acute respiratory infections (ARIs) cause a significant number of deaths among children. According to Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS), about 25% of the deaths in children under-five years are caused by ARI in Bangladesh every year. Low-income families frequently rely on wood, coal, and animal excrement for cooking. However, it is unclear whether using alternative fuels offers a health benefit over solid fuels. To clear this doubt, we conducted a study to investigate the effects of fuel usage on ARI in children. In this study, we used the latest BDHS 2017–18 survey data collected by the Government of Bangladesh (GoB) and estimated the effects of fuel use on ARI by constructing multivariable logistic regression models. From the analysis, we found that the crude (the only type of fuel in the model) odds ratio (OR) for ARI is 1.69 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06–2.71]. This suggests that children in families using contaminated fuels are 69.3% more likely to experience an ARI episode than children in households using clean fuels. After adjusting for cooking fuel, type of roof material, child's age (months), and sex of the child–the effect of solid fuels is similar to the adjusted odds ratio (AOR) for ARI (OR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.05–2.72). This implies that an ARI occurrence is 69.2% more likely when compared to the effect of clean fuel. This study found a statistically significant association between solid fuel consumption and the occurrence of ARI in children in households. The correlation between indoor air pollution and clinical parameters of ARI requires further investigation. Our findings will also help other researchers and policymakers to take comprehensive actions by considering fuel type as a risk factor as well as taking proper steps to solve this issue.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Association of household fuel with acute respiratory infection (ARI) under-five years children in Bangladesh

Islam

Hasan

Ahammed

et al. 2022

Front. Public Health

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“…In the Rohingya refugee camps (Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals (FDMN)) in Cox’s Bazar district, Bangladesh, around 7687 confirmed positive DENV cases, with six deaths disclosed (case fatality rate roughly 0.08%). The replication and multiplication of vectors for this disease were highly dependent on climatic factors [ 28 , 29 , 43 ]. The climate of Bangladesh, as a part of tropical Asian countries, consists of two monsoons with year-to-year time variation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Correlation of Dengue and Meteorological Factors in Bangladesh: A Public Health Concern

Islam

Hasan

Tiwari

et al. 2023

IJERPH

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Dengue virus (DENV) is an enveloped, single-stranded RNA virus, a member of the Flaviviridae family (which causes Dengue fever), and an arthropod-transmitted human viral infection. Bangladesh is well known for having some of Asia’s most vulnerable Dengue outbreaks, with climate change, its location, and it’s dense population serving as the main contributors. For speculation about DENV outbreak characteristics, it is crucial to determine how meteorological factors correlate with the number of cases. This study used five time series models to observe the trend and forecast Dengue cases. Current data-based research has also applied four statistical models to test the relationship between Dengue-positive cases and meteorological parameters. Datasets were used from NASA for meteorological parameters, and daily DENV cases were obtained from the Directorate General of Health Service (DGHS) open-access websites. During the study period, the mean of DENV cases was 882.26 ± 3993.18, ranging between a minimum of 0 to a maximum of 52,636 daily confirmed cases. The Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient between climatic variables and Dengue incidence indicated that no substantial relationship exists between daily Dengue cases and wind speed, temperature, and surface pressure (Spearman’s rho; r = −0.007, p > 0.05; r = 0.085, p > 0.05; and r = −0.086, p > 0.05, respectively). Still, a significant relationship exists between daily Dengue cases and dew point, relative humidity, and rainfall (r = 0.158, p < 0.05; r = 0.175, p < 0.05; and r = 0.138, p < 0.05, respectively). Using the ARIMAX and GA models, the relationship for Dengue cases with wind speed is −666.50 [95% CI: −1711.86 to 378.86] and −953.05 [−2403.46 to 497.36], respectively. A similar negative relation between Dengue cases and wind speed was also determined in the GLM model (IRR = 0.98). Dew point and surface pressure also represented a negative correlation in both ARIMAX and GA models, respectively, but the GLM model showed a positive association. Additionally, temperature and relative humidity showed a positive correlation with Dengue cases (105.71 and 57.39, respectively, in the ARIMAX, 633.86, and 200.03 in the GA model). In contrast, both temperature and relative humidity showed negative relation with Dengue cases in the GLM model. In the Poisson regression model, windspeed has a substantial significant negative connection with Dengue cases in all seasons. Temperature and rainfall are significantly and positively associated with Dengue cases in all seasons. The association between meteorological factors and recent outbreak data is the first study where we are aware of the use of maximum time series models in Bangladesh. Taking comprehensive measures against DENV outbreaks in the future can be possible through these findings, which can help fellow researchers and policymakers.

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“…These concentrate in cities and particularly cities located in low-and middle-income Countries (LMICs) (Aryal et al 2021). Commonly, studies focus on a specific hazard and analyze disaster risks (e.g., Kamruzzaman et al 2021;Müller et al 2020). However, most cities are affected by multiple hazards (Dilley et al 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Disasters are commonly caused by man-made, natural, and technological hazards causing damage and losses (Gallina et al, 2016). Notably, urban areas are hot spots for anthropogenic activities that have resulted in increased hazards (IPCC 2022;Satterthwaite & Bartlett 2017). For instance: increased impervious surfaces (Seto et al 2010), destruction of natural ecosystems (Seto & Shepherd 2009), and increased heat-trapping greenhouse gases (GHG) that have significantly contributed to global warming (Revi et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For instance: increased impervious surfaces (Seto et al 2010), destruction of natural ecosystems (Seto & Shepherd 2009), and increased heat-trapping greenhouse gases (GHG) that have significantly contributed to global warming (Revi et al 2014). Also, many cities globally are located in hazard-prone regions (IPCC 2022). Additionally, more than 50% of the world's population resides in urban areas (United Nations 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The relationship between multiple hazards and deprivation using open geospatial data and machine learning

et al. 2023

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Deprived settlements, usually referred to as slums, are often located in hazardous areas. However, there have been very few studies to examine this notion. In this study, we leverage the advancements in open geospatial data, earth observation (EO), and machine learning to create a multi-hazard susceptibility index and a transferrable disaster risk approach to be adapted in low- and middle-income country (LMIC) cities, with low-cost methods. Specifically, we identify multi-hazards in Nairobi's selected case study area and construct a susceptibility index. Then, we test the predictability of deprived settlements using the multi-hazard susceptibility index in comparison with EO texture-based methods. Lastly, we survey 100 households in two deprived settlements (typical and atypical slums) in Nairobi and use the survey outcomes to validate the multi-hazard susceptibility index. To test the assumption that deprived areas are dominantly located in areas with higher susceptibility to multiple hazards, we contrast morphologically identified deprived settlements with non-deprived settlements. We find that deprived settlements are generally more exposed to hazards. However, there are variations between central and peripheral settlements. In testing the predictability of deprivation using multi-hazards, the multi-hazard-based model performs better for deprived settlements than for other classes. In contrast, the texture-based model is better at classifying all types of morphological settlements. Lastly, by contrasting the survey outcomes to the household interviews, we conclude that proxies used for the multi-hazard susceptibility index adequately capture the hazards. However, more localized proxies can be used to improve the index performance.

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Climate Modeling, Drought Risk Assessment and Adaptation Strategies in the Western Part of Bangladesh

Cited by 10 publications

References 32 publications

Association of household fuel with acute respiratory infection (ARI) under-five years children in Bangladesh

Association of household fuel with acute respiratory infection (ARI) under-five years children in Bangladesh

Correlation of Dengue and Meteorological Factors in Bangladesh: A Public Health Concern

The relationship between multiple hazards and deprivation using open geospatial data and machine learning

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