Climate pacing of millennial sea-level change variability in the central and western Mediterranean

Abstract

Future warming in the Mediterranean is expected to significantly exceed global values with unpredictable implications on the sea-level rise rates in the coming decades. Here, we apply an empirical-Bayesian spatio-temporal statistical model to a dataset of 401 sea-level index points from the central and western Mediterranean and reconstruct rates of sea-level change for the past 10,000 years. We demonstrate that the mean rates of Mediterranean industrial-era sea-level rise have been significantly faster than any other period since ~4000 years ago. We further highlight a previously unrecognized variability in Mediterranean sea-level change rates. In the Common Era, this variability correlates with the occurrence of major regional-scale cooling/warming episodes. Our data show a sea-level stabilization during the Late Antique Little Ice Age cold event, which interrupted a general rising trend of ~0.45 mm a−1 that characterized the warming episodes of the Common Era. By contrast, the Little Ice Age cold event had only minor regional effects on Mediterranean sea-level change rates.

MIS 5.5 Highstand and Future Sea Level Flooding at 2100 and 2300 in Tectonically Stable Areas of Central Mediterranean Sea: Sardinia and the Pontina Plain (Southern Latium), Italy

“…The possibility is also considered that, on the contrary, there is an increase in the insolation of an astronomical origin (Milankovic cycles) characteristic of an interglacial phase [62,63], a condition that finds support in the data from geo-archaeological indicators of the last 4 Ka [33]. In this case, the increase in CO 2 would contribute to global warming by accelerating the upward trend of the sea level [1].…”

“…Sea level rise is one of the most important consequences of climate change [1] which strongly affects global communities and human settlements along the coast. The main responsible factors are global warming, which is driving the melting of ice and the thermal expansion of the oceans [1] and finally the geological vertical movements of the land along the coastal zones, which may accelerate (or decrease) the submersion of low-elevated coasts [2][3][4][5]. In this scenario, the coastal lowlands will be more prone to marine flooding during extreme sea events, threatening many highly populated areas of the Mediterranean coasts [3,4].…”

“…Future warming on the Mediterranean Sea could provide a higher sea level rise than published in the 2019 IPCC report [1]. Much research was recently published on the effects of sea level rise on the Mediterranean coasts [2][3][4][5].…”

Review of the Impacts of Climate Change on Ports and Harbours and Their Adaptation in Spain

“…Although global SL estimations are important, regional variability is huge. Vacchi et al, 2021 [32] studied this variability along the central and Western Mediterranean with a Bayesian spatio-temporal statistical model with 401 sea level index points and pointed out that, to study the effects of SLR, regional studies are necessary. Some of the most important regional studies in Spain are presented in Table 1.…”

Integrating Different Databases to Offer a Geological Perspective of Coastal Management: A Review Case from the Northern Tuscany Littoral Cell (Italy)

“…The natural sea-level rise that globally characterized the upper Pleistocene and Holocene times [85][86][87] has experienced a strong increase due to the greenhouse effect lately [88][89][90]. For the Mediterranean area [91], the increase in sea-level rise between the pre-(0.3 ± 0.7 mm per year) and post-industrial eras (0.55 ± 0.6 mm per year) (1850 CE) is now up to four times higher (1.05 ± 0.6 mm per year). Eustatic sea-level rise is enhanced by local tectonics, determining the relative sea-level rise.…”