Climate projections for Australia: a first glance at CMIP5

Irvine, Irina C.; Whetton, Penny; Moise, Aurel

doi:10.22499/2.6204.003

Cited by 27 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…In RCP8.5 emission scenarios, models project a significant increase in monsoon precipitation in all regions by 2100 (IPCC, ), but in RCP4.5 the projected increases are stronger in EA and IND than in AUS, which shows greater uncertainty in the sign of change (e.g., Christensen et al, ; Hulme et al, ; Irving et al, ; Jourdain et al, ; Menon et al, ; Wang et al, ), which is consistent with our analysis (Figure ). From our analysis of the ensemble range of seasonal precipitation changes (Figures f–5j), we note that there is high confidence in the increase of monsoon precipitation over EA (≈0.3 mm day −1 ) in Plus‐1.5, which is virtually certain.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 87%

Projected Changes in the Asian‐Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global‐Warming Scenarios

et al. 2018

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In light of the Paris Agreement, it is essential to identify regional impacts of half a degree additional global warming to inform climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. We investigate the effects of 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming above preindustrial conditions, relative to present day (2006–2015), over the Asian‐Australian monsoon region (AAMR) using five models from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. There is considerable intermodel variability in projected changes to mean climate and extreme events in 2.0°C and 1.5°C scenarios. There is high confidence in projected increases to mean and extreme surface temperatures over AAMR, as well as more‐frequent persistent daily temperature extremes over East Asia, Australia, and northern India with an additional 0.5°C warming, which are likely to occur. Mean and extreme monsoon precipitation amplify over AAMR, except over Australia at 1.5°C where there is uncertainty in the sign of the change. Persistent daily extreme precipitation events are likely to become more frequent over parts of East Asia and India with an additional 0.5°C warming. There is lower confidence in projections of precipitation change than in projections of surface temperature change. These results highlight the benefits of limiting the global‐mean temperature change to 1.5°C above preindustrial, as the severity of the above effects increases with an extra 0.5°C warming.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 87%

Projected Changes in the Asian‐Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global‐Warming Scenarios

et al. 2018

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“…Currently, global climate models are showing a poor ability to simulate regional precipitation, especially in southeastern Australia (Irving et al, ). Using the MIROC Medres model as the best‐case scenario and the CSIRO Mk3.5 model as the worst, we compare the projected temperatures to those of today in order to determine how changes in temperature alone are likely to affect heavy snowfalls in the Australian Alps.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Currently, global climate models are showing a poor ability to simulate regional precipitation, especially in southeastern Australia (Irving et al, 2012). Using the MIROC Medres model as the best-case scenario and the Figure 3.…”

Section: Future Snowfallmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new perspective on Australian snow

Fiddes

Pezza

Barras

2014

Atmospheric Science Letters

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The Australian Alps have a unique climatological, ecological and hydrological environment and play a key role in water supply for southeastern Australia. Using resort observations we compile a new and robust snow accumulation data set. Both maximum snow depth and total snow accumulation have declined over the last 25 years. A significant decreasing trend was observed for the total number of light snow days, whereas the total number of heavy snow occurrences has remained constant. Maximum temperatures are highly related to all snow variables. It is suggested that global warming is already impacting light snowfall events, while heavy events are less affected.

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“…Comparison of the carbon dioxide concentrations associated with the SRES and RCP future scenarios are summarised by Irving et al (2012), Peters et al (2013) and Knutti and Sedláček (2013). Among these future scenarios, SRES A1F1 (a scenario that describes very rapid economic growth, fast global population growth and technological emphasis on fossil fuel) and RCP 8.5 correspond to the highest level of CO 2 concentrations and the strongest climate response.…”

Section: Climate Scenario Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling climate change impacts on mycotoxin contamination

Fels‐Klerx

Liu

Battilani

2016

WMJ

119

103

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Projected climate change effects will influence primary agricultural systems and thus food security, directly via impacts on yields, and indirectly via impacts on its safety, with mycotoxins considered as crucial hazards. Mycotoxins are produced by a wide variety of fungal species, each having their own characteristics and requirements. The geographic distribution of toxigenic fungi reflects their ecological needs, with thermophilic fungi prevalent at lower latitudes and psychrophiles at the higher latitudes. A resulting gradient of mycotoxin contamination has been repeatedly stressed. Changes in climatic conditions will lead to shifts in the fungal population and the mycotoxin patterns. In general, climate change is expected to increase mycotoxin contamination of crops, but due to the complexity of mycoflora associated to each crop and its interaction with the environment, it appears rash to draw conclusions without specific studies. Very recently first quantitative estimations of impacts of climate change on mycotoxin occurrence have been made. Two studies each applied models of different disciplines including climate projection, crop phenology and fungal/mycotoxin prediction to cereals cultivated in Europe. They were followed by a case study on climate change effects on Alternaria moulds and their mycotoxins in tomato. Results showed that DON contamination of wheat grown in Europe was, in general, expected to increase. However, variation was large, and in some years and some regions a decrease in DON contamination was expected. Regarding aflatoxin contamination of maize grown in Europe, an increase was estimated, mainly in the +2 °C scenario. Two main research gaps were identified related to the (limited) number of existing quantitative models taking into account climate change and their validation in limited areas. Efforts are therefore mandatory to be prepared for future changes and challenges on model validation and limited mycotoxin-crop combinations.

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Climate projections for Australia: a first glance at CMIP5

Cited by 27 publications

References 27 publications

Projected Changes in the Asian‐Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global‐Warming Scenarios

Projected Changes in the Asian‐Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global‐Warming Scenarios

A new perspective on Australian snow

Modelling climate change impacts on mycotoxin contamination

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