Climate projections for Vietnam based on regional climate models

Ngo‐Duc, Thanh; Kieu, Chanh; Thatcher, Marcus; Nguyen-Le, Dzung; Phan-Van, Tan

doi:10.3354/cr01234

Cited by 54 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Note that the bias of the extreme temperature indices is likely to be systematic and associated with the cold bias in RegCM over the SEA region, which was reported in several previous studies (e.g. Phan et al , ; Octaviani and Manomaiphiboon, ; Manomaiphiboon et al , ; Ngo‐Duc et al , ). There are some exceptions at some stations in the Maritime Continent region, especially in the west of Indonesia and Malaysia, where a positive bias for TNn and TNx was found for all 18 experiments.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Similar findings have been reported in other studies in the region, e.g. Phan et al (), Octaviani and Manomaiphiboon (), Manomaiphiboon et al () and Ngo‐Duc et al (). The reason was attributed to the more intense convection in the MIT‐Emanuel scheme, imposing fewer low‐level clouds, more short‐wave radiation absorbed at the surface and hence warmer near‐surface temperatures.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Performance evaluation of RegCM4 in simulating extreme rainfall and temperature indices over the CORDEX‐Southeast Asia region

Ngo‐Duc

Tangang

Santisirisomboon

et al. 2016

Intl Journal of Climatology

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In this study, simulations over Southeast Asia (15°S–40°N, 80°–145°E) at 36 km resolution were conducted for the period 1989–2007 using the Regional Climate Model version 4.3 (RegCM4.3) under the framework of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment – Southeast Asia (or SEACLID/CORDEX‐SEA) project. Forced by the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim Reanalysis (ERA‐Interim), 18 experiments were carried out using different combinations of cumulus parameterization and ocean flux schemes. Twelve extreme indices for both rainfall and temperature were estimated from the model output. A statistical omega index was used to measure the degree of similarity among the 18 experiments in phase and shape. The results showed relatively high similarities among the experiments over mainland Asia compared to those over the Maritime Continent for both seasonal and inter‐annual variability. The extreme rainfall indices had a lower omega compared to that of temperature. Observed daily rainfall and temperature data at 52 meteorological stations over the SEA region were used to validate the simulated extreme indices. The results showed that extreme temperature indices were generally underestimated across the region. Systematic biases for each simulated rainfall index were also identified. A score ranking system was established to compare the relative performance of the 18 experiments over the 52 selected stations objectively. It was shown that the experiments with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)‐Emanuel scheme performed relatively better than the other convective schemes. The combination of the MIT‐Emanuel convective scheme with the Biosphere–Atmosphere Transfer scheme (BATS1e) ocean flux scheme produced the best performance.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Performance evaluation of RegCM4 in simulating extreme rainfall and temperature indices over the CORDEX‐Southeast Asia region

Ngo‐Duc

Tangang

Santisirisomboon

et al. 2016

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model V3.1.1 (Skamarock et al , ) was used. Although the dynamic downscaling approach has been used to simulate and project the climate of Vietnam region with 20–40 km resolution RCM (Ngo‐Duc et al , , ), it has never used in the urban climate study of Vietnamese cities with high‐resolution RCM.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Numerical study on regional climate change due to the rapid urbanization of greater Ho Chi Minh City's metropolitan area over the past 20 years

Doan

Kusaka

2015

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study examines climatic impact of urbanization on the variability of the urban heat island (UHI) effect over Greater Ho Chi Minh City metropolitan area (GHCM), since the late 1980s, using the dynamical downscaling with very high‐resolution regional climate model coupled to an urban canopy model (RCM/UCM). This is the first application of RCM/UCM to a city in developing countries in Southeast Asia in assessing the impacts of the past land‐use and anthropogenic heat release during the selected three periods (ca. 1989, 1999, and 2009). The main findings are as follows: First, agreement between simulated results (for case of ca. 2009 urban) and observation demonstrates that the RCM/UCM is able to reproduce the urban climate of GHCM. Second, the evolution of spatial distribution of UHI is closely associated with urban expansion. The increase in the surface air temperature was about 0.3 °C in the pre‐existing urbanized area and about 0.6 °C in newly urbanized area in the last 20 years. Main factor of these changes is conversion of agriculture or grassland into urban structure, which results in increase in sensible heating and decrease in latent heating. In addition, in the central GHCM, the urbanization impact was estimated at 0.31 °C, while the temperature increase was observed at 0.64 °C in the last 20 years. This suggests that the urbanization may contribute about half to the increase of surface air temperature in the central GHCM.

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“…Heavy rainfall events tend to decrease over all sub-regions except Northwest and South Central Vietnam. In terms of mean rainfall, Ngo-Duc et al (2014) used three regional climate models and showed that projected rainfall varies inconsistently from South Central Vietnam northward in summer, while it increases consistently in fall in the 2000-2050 period.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rainfall and Tropical Cyclone Activity over Vietnam Simulated and Projected by the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model - NHRCM

Kieu-Thi

Vu-Thanh

Nguyen-Minh

et al. 2016

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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This study uses the non-hydrostatic regional climate model (NHRCM) to simulate and project rainfall and tropical cyclone (TC) activity over Vietnam. The simulated precipitation shows that climatic heavy rainfall centers are well captured in the seasonal march. In near and far future, the projected rainfall by NHRCM using outputs of the Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model 3.2 with RCP8.5 scenario will clearly decrease in Northwest and Central Vietnam in June-August, while it will remarkably increase in Northeast and Central Vietnam in September-November. The model underestimates TC number and activity area in the first half of the TC season but slightly overestimates in the second half as compared to the best track. Projected TCs indicate a decrease in both TC number and activity area in near and far future. Moreover, the maximum TC number occurs one month late as compared to the present climate, whereas TC number remarkably decreases in July-August in far future. Rainfall induced by TCs increases in North Vietnam in the projected climate as compared to the baseline period. It also increases in mid-Central Vietnam in near future but decreases in southern Central Vietnam in near and far future. Conversely, non-TC rainfall is likely to decrease in North Vietnam in future and in mid-Central Vietnam in near future but increase in southern Central Vietnam in far future.

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Climate projections for Vietnam based on regional climate models

Cited by 54 publications

References 44 publications

Performance evaluation of RegCM4 in simulating extreme rainfall and temperature indices over the CORDEX‐Southeast Asia region

Performance evaluation of RegCM4 in simulating extreme rainfall and temperature indices over the CORDEX‐Southeast Asia region

Numerical study on regional climate change due to the rapid urbanization of greater Ho Chi Minh City's metropolitan area over the past 20 years

Rainfall and Tropical Cyclone Activity over Vietnam Simulated and Projected by the Non-Hydrostatic Regional Climate Model - NHRCM

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