Climate refugia: joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeography

Gavin, Daniel G.; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.; Gugger, Paul F.; Heath, Katy D.; Rodríguez‐Sánchez, Francisco; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Hampe, Arndt; Hu, Feng Sheng; Ashcroft, Michael B.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Blois, Jessica L.; Carstens, Bryan C.; Davis, Edward B.; Lafontaine, Guillaume de; Edwards, Mary E.; Fernandez, Matias; Henne, Paul D.; Herring, Erin M.; Holden, Zachary A.; Kong, Woo-Seok; Liu, Jianquan; Magri, Donatella; Matzke, Nicholas J.; McGlone, Matt S.; Saltré, Frédérik; Stigall, Alycia L.; Tsai, Yi-Hsin Erica; Williams, John W.

doi:10.1111/nph.12929

Cited by 375 publications

(371 citation statements)

References 250 publications

(280 reference statements)

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“…Pauls et al (2013) and Gavin et al (2014) expanded this approach to include fossil data. This new integrative approach better identified refugia and postglacial colonization routes in Fagus sylvatica, Pseudotsuga menziesii, and Picea crassifolia (Gavin et al 2014).…”

Section: Identification Of Past Climatic Refugia and Future Macrorefugiamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…21 kya BP), current, and potentially future (2070) geographic ranges within Eurasia and North America; (ii) to estimate changes between current and future population genetic structure in each taxon, that is, the current and future rates of gene migration correlated with environmental variables and changes in genetic diversity expected as a consequence of range loss; and to predict (iii) the climate refugia-locations where taxa survive periods of regionally adverse climate, areas where plants could survive during the LGM (ca. 21 kya BP, Ashcroft 2010; Gavin et al 2014)-and the locations of their macrorefugia, that is, the overlap of current and future areas of suitable climate (Temunovic et al 2013). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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From past to future: impact of climate change on range shifts and genetic diversity patterns of circumboreal plants

Wróblewska

Mirski

2017

Reg Environ Change

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Climate change is projected to influence the genetic resources of plant species. Recent research has examined genetic diversity patterns under current climate conditions, with little attention to the future genetic consequences for species. In this study, we combined ecological niche modeling and population genetic approaches to project future changes in genetic diversity using plastid and nuclear DNA and reconstructed distribution patterns of three circumboreal plants (Chamaedaphne calyculata, Linnaea borealis ssp. borealis, and Pedicularis sceptrum-carolinum ssp. sceptrumcarolinum) in the last glacial maximum. We found that circumboreal plants could potentially lose their geographic ranges in the future (2070; 35-52% in RCP 4.5 (representative concentration pathways), 37-53% in RCP 6.0, and 56-69% in RCP 8.5), only slightly compensated by a predicted range gain of 18-33% (across the three RCPs). It is expected that future genetic diversity level could remain similar or lower than the present level. On the other hand, the homogeneity of the genetic background-a lack of admixture and domination of one gene pool in most populations of C. calyculata and L. borealis ssp. borealis-was predicted to become more pronounced in the future. Combining the paleoecological niche modeling and genetic data revealed, more precisely, the climate refugia for circumboreal plants in the Alps, central Asia, Beringia, and southern North America and the macrorefugia more restricted to the northern part of Eurasia and North America, reaching the arctic zone.

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Section: Identification Of Past Climatic Refugia and Future Macrorefugiamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

From past to future: impact of climate change on range shifts and genetic diversity patterns of circumboreal plants

Wróblewska

Mirski

2017

Reg Environ Change

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“…Because microrefugia allow in situ persistence within the species' former range, they facilitate species responses to climate change via distribution dynamics, reducing the migration speeds necessary to track climatically suitable habitat (Corlett and Westcott, 2013). Numerous lines of evidence, including fossils, distribution models, and patterns of genetic diversity, support the importance of microrefugia during past climate change (Birks and Willis, 2008;Gavin et al, 2014;Stewart et al, 2010). In Australia, which was not glaciated but experienced widespread conditions of extreme aridity during glacial phases ), biodiversity appears to have been maintained primarily in microrefugia (Byrne, 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detecting microrefugia in semi-arid landscapes from remotely sensed vegetation dynamics

Andrew

Warrener

2017

Remote Sensing of Environment

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(in press). Detecting microrefugia in semi-arid landscapes from remotely sensed vegetation dynamics. Remote Sensing of Environment. Accepted 4 August 2017. DOI:https: //doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.08.005 Disclaimer:The PDF document is a copy of the final version of this manuscript that was subsequently accepted by the journal for publication. The paper has been through peer review, but it has not been subject to any additional copy-editing or journal specific formatting (so will look different from the final version of record, which may be accessed following the DOI above depending on your access situation). 2 AbstractMicrorefugia are sites with stable, high quality habitat within landscapes characterized by dynamic environmental conditions driven by climate variability or ecological disturbances. There is considerable interest in the potential of microrefugia to provide climate change resilience to landscapes and to biodiversity conservation. Although attractive conceptually, there is yet little guidance on how to identify climate change microrefugia in order to study and protect them, and the data required to do so are often lacking. This study demonstrates how time series remote sensing, using all available Landsat images of a study area, can be used to directly detect microrefugia maintained by water subsidies in a semi-arid landscape in southwest Western Australia.Microrefugia were identified as pixels with abundant vegetation and consistent vegetation dynamics between wet and dry years. At every pixel, a harmonic model was fit to the intra-annual time series of vegetation index values compiled from the wettest years in the Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) archive. This model was then used to predict the phenological cycle of the driest years at that pixel. Candidate microrefugia were defined to be those pixels with (1) high vegetation activity in dry years and (2) highly predictable phenologies that are consistent regardless of the weather conditions experienced in a given year. Spatial relationships between candidate microrefugia and landscape features associated with elevated moisture availability (thought to drive climate microrefugia in these semi-arid landscapes) were assessed. The candidate microrefugia show great promise. Evaluations against high-resolution imagery reveal that candidate microrefugia most likely buffer against drought, although refugia from other disturbances, especially fire, were also detected. In contrast, spatial proxies of the physical features expected to maintain microrefugia failed to adequately represent the distribution of microrefugia across the landscape, likely due to data quality and the heterogeneity of microrefugia. Direct detection of microrefugia with Earth observation data is a promising solution in data limited regions. Landsat time series analyses are well suited to this application as they can characterize both the habitat quality and stability aspects of microrefugia.

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“…The occurrence and location of longterm refugia determine the current patterns of biodiversity on Earth (Willis and Whittaker 2000). Increasing numbers of publications examine the location, age and role of the refugial areas in given regions Gavin et al 2014). The importance of the refugial debate is certain to intensify in response to species extinctions which have already been observed, and those expected to be caused by anthropogenic climate change (Willis and Whittaker 2000;Gavin et al 2014 and cited).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Bhagwat and Willis 2008;Bennet and Provan 2008;Ashcroft 2010;Gavin et al 2014;Birks 2015). Microrefugia (sensu Rull 2009), small areas where species survive outside their core range, have an important status.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Refugial debate: on small sites according to their function and capacity

et al. 2017

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The occurrence and location of long-term refugia determine the current patterns of biodiversity on Earth. The importance of the refugial debate is certain to increase in response to observed and expected species extinctions caused by climate change. Small areas where species survive outside their core range are important, as unique natural phenomena and model systems for observing the response of species to climate change. They can play a crucial role as potential sources for species recovery in the future or can act as progenitors of a new species. While most authors believe that sites connected with only long-term isolation should be included into the refugium concept, this approach can result in the loss of linkage between the ecological and evolutionary processes taking place during different phases of the species range dynamics. Moreover, the papers often interpret the nature of described phenomena in different ways. In response, the conceptual scheme given in our letter summarises the patterns which occur during species range shift. It proposes an equivalent scheme for small refugial sites according to their function and capacity, based on the relict species concept. This approach and proposed terminology is tested on the example of two plant species with different pattern of the long term range dynamics. Our paper highlights the importance of sites harboring 'trailing-edge' young relicts for the future long-term persistence of the species (as old relicts) under unfavorable regional conditions. By considering the age gradients of small refugial sites it is possible to reveal community interactions, species traits or genes that drive the responses of biota to climate changes.

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Climate refugia: joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeography

Cited by 375 publications

References 250 publications

From past to future: impact of climate change on range shifts and genetic diversity patterns of circumboreal plants

From past to future: impact of climate change on range shifts and genetic diversity patterns of circumboreal plants

Detecting microrefugia in semi-arid landscapes from remotely sensed vegetation dynamics

Refugial debate: on small sites according to their function and capacity

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