Climate regime shifts and biodiversity redistribution in the Bay of Biscay

Chust, Guillem; González, Manuel; Fontán, Almudena; Revilla, Marta; Álvarez, Paula; Santos, M.B.; Cotano, Unai; Chifflet, Marina; Borja, Ángel; Muxika, Iñigo; Sagarmínaga, Yolanda; Caballero, Ainhoa; Santiago, Iñaki de; Epelde, Irati; Liria, Pedro; Ibaibarriaga, Leire; Garnier, Roland; Franco, Javier; Villarino, Ernesto; Irigoien, Xabier; Fernandes-Salvador, José A.; Uriarte, Andrés; Esteban, Xabier; Orúe‐Echevarría, Dorleta; Figueira, Tiago; Uriarte, Adolfo

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149622

Cited by 31 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 104 publications

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“…The population rebounded back to sustainable levels, with a historical highest abundance estimate above 200 × 10 3 t in 2021 (ICES, 2021b, see also Figure S1). Recent analyses, however, revealed a decline in anchovy size at age (e.g., Chust et al., 2022; Doray, Petitgas, Huret, et al., 2018; Menu et al., 2023). Shrinking anchovy size is becoming a major concern for the operation and profitability of the fisheries, and an indicator that is likely flagging changes in ecosystem functioning in the entire Bay of Biscay (Chust et al., 2022).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Shrinking body size of European anchovy in the Bay of Biscay

Taboada,

Chust,

Santos Mocoroa

et al. 2023

Global Change Biology

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Decreased body size is often cited as a major response to ocean warming. Available evidence, however, questions the actual emergence of shrinking trends and the prevalence of temperature‐driven changes in size over alternative drivers. In marine fish, changes in food availability or fluctuations in abundance, including those due to size‐selective fishing, provide compelling mechanisms to explain changes in body size. Here, based on three decades of scientific survey data (1990–2021), we report a decline in the average body size—length and weight—of anchovy, Engraulis encrasicolus L., in the Bay of Biscay. Shrinking was evident in all age classes, from juveniles to adults. Allometric adjustment indicated slightly more pronounced declines in weight than in total length, which is consistent with a change toward a slender body shape. Trends in adult weight were nonlinear, with rates accelerating to an average decline of up to 25% decade−1 during the last two decades. We found a strong association between higher anchovy abundance and reduced juvenile size. The effect of density dependence was less clear later in life, and temperature became the best predictor of declines in adult size. Theoretical analyses based on a strategic model further suggested that observed patterns are consistent with a simultaneous, opposing effect of rising temperatures on accelerating early growth and decreasing adult size as predicted by the temperature‐size rule. Macroecological assessment of ecogeographical—Bergmann's and James'—rules in anchovy size suggested that the observed decline largely exceeds intraspecific variation and might be the result of selection. Limitations inherent in the observational nature of the study recommend caution and a continued assessment and exploration of alternative drivers. Additional evidence of a climate‐driven regime shift in the region suggests, however, that shrinking anchovy sizes may signal a long‐lasting change in the structure and functioning of the Bay of Biscay ecosystem.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Shrinking body size of European anchovy in the Bay of Biscay

Taboada,

Chust,

Santos Mocoroa

et al. 2023

Global Change Biology

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“…Since the recovery of the stock and the implementation of the management plan, in 2010, this fishery exploits anchovy at harvest rates about half the historical levels, or less, while the resource stays around maximum historical levels [66]. The high levels of recruitments in recent years may be related partly to the lower harvest rate implemented but also to favorable environment occurring in recent years [11,21,36,125]. Besides this, the closure might have partly altered the dynamics of price formation, because prices after recovery were lower than expected [95] This can result partly from the increase in imports during the closure, confirming the influence of the global market on these fisheries [81,84], but also from a reduction of the mean size of landed anchovy, either due to density dependence growth dynamics or to environmental changes in productivity [21,33].…”

Section: Concluding Remarks and Prospectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The high levels of recruitments in recent years may be related partly to the lower harvest rate implemented but also to favorable environment occurring in recent years [11,21,36,125]. Besides this, the closure might have partly altered the dynamics of price formation, because prices after recovery were lower than expected [95] This can result partly from the increase in imports during the closure, confirming the influence of the global market on these fisheries [81,84], but also from a reduction of the mean size of landed anchovy, either due to density dependence growth dynamics or to environmental changes in productivity [21,33]. How much these changes affect the performance of the HCRs remains to be studied further in the next revision of the MP.…”

Section: Concluding Remarks and Prospectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lessons learnt on the management of short-lived fish from the Bay of Biscay anchovy case study: Satisfying fishery needs and sustainability under recruitment uncertainty

et al. 2023

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“…Also, several researchers in Iran have researched the dynamics analysis of these ecosystems (Gohari et al, 2013; Ravar et al, 2020). In addition, in global studies such as Chust et al (2022), climate regime shifts in the Bay of Biscay have been researched, and the incidence of these regime shifts has been investigated by analyzing the time series of temperature, salinity, and some human‐made variables. Also, Osuch et al (2022) have analyzed the shifts in the identified flow regimes in the analysis of the water flow regime shift in the upper watersheds of the North Pole with the application of the system dynamics approach.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dryland river regime shifts in Iran: Drivers and feedbacks

Rahimi

Ghorbani

Ahmadaali

et al. 2023

River Research & Apps

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In the Anthropocene, human activities have created unprecedented changes and nonlinear relationships between humans and nature. These changes can be much faster and more intense in arid and semiarid areas that have been affected by intense human activities. Iran has climates from very humid to very dry, but arid and semiarid climates cover the country's largest area. Many of these arid areas have undergone severe changes in their surface and groundwater ecosystems in recent years, which have caused severe damage to humans and the environment in the area and surrounding areas. Therefore, in this study, using the theory of regime shifts, the time series of the Zayandeh‐Rud River Basin in the center of Iran were analyzed. First, the data of the desired time series in the period of 1986–2018 was arranged seasonally. Then, using the sequential t‐test method, regime shifts in these time series were identified, and then, causal loop diagrams of these shifts and their drivers and feedbacks were interpreted. The results showed that in the time series of quantity and quality of surface water and groundwater level in the studied stations and aquifers, regime shifts can be identified. Regime shifts were also identified in the time series of agricultural land area. These shifts have occurred with the increase in human activities since the early 1950s in the metropolis of Isfahan, the increase in agricultural and industrial exploitation, and consequently, the increase in population. When this reinforcing feedback loop becomes dominant, the Zayandeh‐Rud River system has shifted from a regime of rich water resources to a regime of poor water resources. However, by recognizing and systematically analyzing these shifts, the Zayandeh‐Rud River system can be directed toward a sustainable system through structural reform, negotiation, and redefining goals.

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Climate regime shifts and biodiversity redistribution in the Bay of Biscay

Cited by 31 publications

References 104 publications

Shrinking body size of European anchovy in the Bay of Biscay

Shrinking body size of European anchovy in the Bay of Biscay

Lessons learnt on the management of short-lived fish from the Bay of Biscay anchovy case study: Satisfying fishery needs and sustainability under recruitment uncertainty

Dryland river regime shifts in Iran: Drivers and feedbacks

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