Climate-related inter-annual variability and long-term influence on wheat yield across canal-irrigated areas of Punjab, Pakistan

Irrigation Supply and Demand, Land Use/Cover Change and Future Projections of Climate, in Indus Basin Irrigation System, Pakistan

“…There are two pairs of months in a year that are recognized as dry periods (April-June and October-November), but mainly two months, October and November [53][54][55]. On the other hand, temperature records are very high in summer months, particularly in June and July [40,56,57]. In Kharif season, the evapotranspiration is greater due to high temperatures, which results in more water demand in these months and hence, water requirement is not satisfied [57,58].…”

“…On the other hand, temperature records are very high in summer months, particularly in June and July [40,56,57]. In Kharif season, the evapotranspiration is greater due to high temperatures, which results in more water demand in these months and hence, water requirement is not satisfied [57,58]. The irrigation water requirement shows a rising trend due to maximum ET in Kharif months from May-August and a low trend in Rabi months during December-January.…”

“…The irrigation water requirement shows a rising trend due to maximum ET in Kharif months from May-August and a low trend in Rabi months during December-January. This large gap is due to less water availability for the crops as compared to their actual water requirement [57][58][59]. The calculation of agricultural water demand highly depends upon the determination of evapotranspiration (ET) [19].…”

“…The unmet demand is greater in November-January because this month's water supply decreases while cropping intensity increases. Unmet demand decreases in April because Rabi crops are harvested in this month mostly [57,58]. It is of paramount importance to strategically manage the current water resources in order to understand and forecast the hydrological response of this complicated system [39,60].…”

“…Scenarios were developed on the basis of water management strategies as well as future climatic variations to optimize the water allocation. Demand site management strategies include water use efficiency improvement, irrigation technology adaptation and a shift towards low water-intensive crops [57][58][59]. Supply management strategies include water supply enhancement by developing storage, inter-region transfer and modifying current operational rules to fulfill water demand [40,58].…”