Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) for Papua New Guinea

Abstract

Developing and least developed countries are particularly vulnerable to the impact of climate change and climate extremes, including drought. In Papua New Guinea (PNG), severe drought caused by the strong El Niño in 2015-2016 affected about 40% of the population, with almost half a million people impacted by food shortages. Recognizing the urgency of enhancing early warning systems to assist vulnerable countries with climate change adaptation, the Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) international initiative has been established. In this chapter, the CREWS-PNG project is described. The CREWS-PNG project aims to develop an improved drought monitoring and early warning system, running operationally through a collaboration between PNG National Weather Services (NWS), the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the World Meteorological Organization that will enable better strategic decision-making for agriculture, water management, health and other climate-sensitive sectors. It is shown that current dynamical climate models can provide skillful predictions of regional rainfall at least 3 months in advance. Dynamical climate model-based forecast products are disseminated through a range of Web-based information tools. It is demonstrated that seasonal climate prediction is an effective solution to assist governments and local communities with informed decision-making in adaptation to climate variability and change.

Evaluation of Satellite Precipitation Estimates over Australia

“…To conclude, evaluation of satellite precipitation estimates (CMORPH and GSMaP) is an essential scientific contribution to WMO activities in assisting countries in Asia and the Pacific with improving precipitation monitoring (including accumulated heavy precipitation and drought monitoring) which WMO provides through its flagship initiatives such as the Space-based Weather and Climate Extremes Monitoring [24] and the Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems [31], among others.…”

Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems: Adaptation Strategies for the Most Vulnerable Communities

“…(de León et al 2006). Each component is key to the overall efficiency of the I-EWS (Kuleshov et al 2019). If one component is lacking the entire system would not succeed in efficiently informing disaster risk management.…”

“…Past studies have investigated the potential for early warning informed risk management in vulnerable countries but tend to only touch on the risk analysis component of EWSs (Kuleshov et al 2019;Webb 2020). The risk knowledge component of I-EWSs requires further investigation for more efficient implementation of future user-centered I-EWS (Mercer 2010).…”

“…Risk assessments for drought, floods and tropical cyclones Risk assessments could be vital to the efficiency of disaster risk management for natural hazards such as drought, floods, and tropical cyclones. However, risk knowledge for these disasters on a localized scale remains minimal (Kuleshov et al 2019;Webb 2020). Risk assessments have been conducted for both slowonset hazards like drought and fast-onset hazards like floods and tropical cyclones in vulnerable communities around the world; however, these have been conducted on broad scales rather than tailored to local vulnerable communities.…”

“…5. All LGAs could consider the use of a usercentered I-EWS for drought, as it can improve the resilience of ADM in highly at-risk areas (Kuleshov et al 2019).…”